January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Matthew70]

6 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Lol true. I was just carrying on with him. I couldn't help it, lol. I thought he may of intentionally used that word if you put it in Context. Depending whether or not the occurrence was desired or not. He's a good Poster. Great with Teleconnections.

Solid he is. I thought it was funny also. 
 

[jaxjagman]

4 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, that's valid points Jax. I'm sure you meant Shift though  lol.

I plead the 5th

[jaxjagman]

5 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

So, when I look at that.  I see an East African/IO wave working from 1-2 to 4-5 and then to 6(and then fizzling out).  I also see some convection at the dateline which is phase 8.  Looks like the phase 6 dies out.  In my mind, that would correspond to the warm waves prior to the 12th per lagged composites?  Looks pretty weakfish to me in general with 2-3 strong days in 6.  I think HL blocking eventually trumps it unless it holds onto that stronger look for more than 2-3 days.

This is true.Just to clarify myself.I'm not saying this is gloom and doom,i should have worded my words better.

But its really been a unusual pattern so far.You see this standing wave along the MC,WP  since fall and the interaction with Rossby and Kelvin waves the past few weeks is killing the MJO signal and more than likely will continue.

When you have a +TNH which is what social media is the talk about,this causes the trough axis to shift west,then you see the subtropical ridge over Florida.But,this looks more transient on todays ensembles on the long range.

I honestly wouldnt trust any of the LR models right now.

[Matthew70]

19 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

This is true.Just to clarify myself.I'm not saying this is gloom and doom,i should have worded my words better.

But its really been a unusual pattern so far.You see this standing wave along the MC,WP  since fall and the interaction with Rossby and Kelvin waves the past few weeks is killing the MJO signal and more than likely will continue.

When you have a +TNH which is what social media is the talk about,this causes the trough axis to shift west,then you see the subtropical ridge over Florida.But,this looks more transient on todays ensembles on the long range.

I honestly wouldnt trust any of the LR models right now.

I really feel we have allowed way too much outside noise affect wx forecasting.  These models have no clue what to digest anymore.  We have made something that was already complicated even more complicated.  I believe the models should not be able to go past 240 hours at most. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

One thing I'd watch with all the -EPO model predictions is whether or not, if and once we get one, it rolls back over to Eastern Siberia. I mention it because I saw it on the overnight GFS and it has happened that way a few times over the past few years. I remember one year where BAM was all in on an arctic pattern until this kept happening. 

But, as Jax said overnight, long range has been pretty rough on models (as I guess it usually is). 

In the past week we've had almost a whole decade of possibilities:

Monday, 18z GFS = mini Jan 2016:

 

Tuesday 12z GFS, we had a mini Feb 2021 ice storm:

 

Overnight last night 0z GFS had us getting primed for the 2019 floods again:

 

That's a lot of swings and extreme possibilities in four days worth of model runs. 

I know people say use ensembles, but I'm not necessarily interested in the safer smoothed out means, because they often hide things like the EPO ridge rolling over. 

8 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

I believe the models should not be able to go past 240 hours at most. 

I definitely agree that it would cut down on wild swings, but I'm kind of a sicko for long range OP runs. I'd like to see the RGEM  and NAMs run out to 240hrs, lol. 

[Weatheriscool]

5 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

One thing I'd watch with all the -EPO model predictions is whether or not, if and once we get one, it rolls back over to Eastern Siberia. I mention it because I saw it on the overnight GFS and it has happened that way a few times over the past few years. I remember one year where BAM was all in on an arctic pattern until this kept happening. 

But, as Jax said overnight, long range has been pretty rough on models (as I guess it usually is). 

In the past week we've had almost a whole decade of possibilities:

Monday, 18z GFS = mini Jan 2016:

 

Tuesday 12z GFS, we had a mini Feb 2021 ice storm:

 

Overnight last night 0z GFS had us getting primed for the 2019 floods again:

 

That's a lot of swings and extreme possibilities in four days worth of model runs. 

I know people say use ensembles, but I'm not necessarily interested in the safer smoothed out means, because they often hide things like the EPO ridge rolling over. 

I definitely agree that it would cut down on wild swings, but I'm kind of a sicko for long range OP runs. I'd like to see the RGEM  and NAMs run out to 240hrs, lol. 

Good analysis! Like you, I am not sure what value OP models have past 240 the GFS is almost always churning out a different solution with every run. Dont misunderstand, I realize that the physics of the atmosphere are extremely complicated but it does not seem like there should be such wild model swings from run to run 

[Carvers Gap]

I think the GFS is out to lunch.   It has been all winter.  I guess a broken clock is right twice a day though, and I won’t discount it quite yet.  It has some support from the 0z GEM, but the GEM ends before the transition on ~Jan12 is depicted on other modeling - the GEPS kicks the tucked in trough out of the West right after 240.

Eastern trough looks on time on the 0z Euro, every nonGEFS ensemble suite I can find, and the AIFS Euro…even the AIGFS to some extent.

The ensembles have not budged overnight…EPS, GEPS, AIFS Euro, AIGEFS.   Roll with them at this range.  Check ensemble member counts.

As I noted yesterday, the main concerns are cold source regions and if the ridge continues to retrograde (doesn’t stop in the West or eastern PAC).  It could be the MJO is trying to gain same amplitude…but it has been so inaccurate this winter I am not using it a ton - yet.   
 

When we switched to the chinook in late December, modeling projected the event to start right after the 10th.  It took another 12 days before it actually showed up.   I think the same thing is occurring here…just with the cold.  
 

If non-GEFS ensembles begin to move…that is worth paying attention to.  GFS verification scores have been terrible of late.    

[Carvers Gap]

I suspect we are seeing feedback over the SW which is a known issue w modeling.  Now, an actuall cutoff low could be legit under that big EPO.  That seems impossible to have a cutoff under the ridge, but it has happened before.  But given the massive amounts of model feedback and infinite loops this winter, I suspect that trough kicks right on out.  By ~Jan 12. 

[Carvers Gap]

Model feedback has been a huge problem all winter.  Honestly, I have never seen the over amplification this bad.  Repetitive Baja lows, repetitive NW lows, and maybe now repetitive Four Corners lows.  One low is generally plausible - if we start seeing slp reform over and over…that is more than likely feedback.  I start tossing model runs at the hour that occurs. If we see the GFS correct to an eastern trough as we get closer…it will make me wonder.  

[Carvers Gap]

If you look at the 6z GEFS at 500, you can see a possible feedback loop start at 276....seems not realistic at all.

[Carvers Gap]

Now, I do think the following is possible.  We have seen it show up on modeling but without overall consistency ->The cold shot around the 12-13th rolls into the Plains and hangs up over the East.  It could hang up over the Ohio river valley, the Tenn River valley, the Apps, or even the East coast.  If/when it does, an over-running event seems plausible.

Beware the cutoff low over the Southwest.  They are tricky, tricky critters.  On rare occasions, they will simply set-up shop per the deterministic GFS, spin for days, and just burn out.  But IMHO, they kick out about 90% of the time.  If it were to set up shop there, when it kicks...the trough should still come into the East.  Pay me now or pay me later.

The good thing I can see on modeling this morning is the EPO ridge is present.  That has not changed.  When it reaches into Point Barrow, a cutoff OR split flow could develop underneath it.  I suspect we eventually see both - a cutoff/bowling ball and split flow.  Details twelve days out are going to be sketchy.  

So, I started looking at individual 6z GEFS ensemble members - it is the ensemble of the worst case deterministic scenario.  I am not done yet sifting through the other ensembles.  The 6z GEFS is not as warm as I thought it would be.  I scroll right on down to Jan13...and then 14th.   Remember, those are BN temps during our coldest climatology.  A good number of those troughs stall.  That tells me the risk for over-running is very high.  If I was sitting in middle and western Tenn...I would want to keep an eye on this, even E TN.

I can't get individual 500 height panels for the US, so I resort to looking at the temp maps above.  Below is the 500 mean map for the hour above.  The individual members tell a different story.  Many of them must have kicked the trough eastward as the SER is squashed on roughly 2/3 depending on your definition of "squashed."  Many of those cold fronts stall somewhere over the East.  

Knowing that SW bias is possibly in play, we take that 500 map and run with it.  The EPO ridge has blocking over the top.  

Below is the 12z trend map for Jan 12.  It looks like that for the rest of the run which implies the ensemble is correcting eastward with the trough.  

[*Flash*]

I hate the monkey wrench that the MJO seems to be each year. I subscribe to the notion it's not a matter of if, but when the -EPO/+TNH takes its hold over the conus pattern. BAM teased January 2014 in a recent Tweet. My initial reaction...slow your roll. 'TIs a dangerous analog to casually reference. Best case scenario, I suspect January 2026 could be a poor man's version of that month. I have window size concerns once the cold arrives but can't complain about the timing. 

[Carvers Gap]

I feel like the 6z AIFS Euro (which just ran) is a pretty good representation of the 0z EURO and GEPS.  Temps under that gradually cool to seasonal or BN.  It is again worth noting that seasonal temps can get the job done from mid-Jan to mid-Feb, provided that timing is works (meaning not warm-up and rain).

But give me that setup - all day long.  EPO ridge, AN heights over Greenland and AO regions, trough north(or east of Hawaii), split flow.

Trends over the next 2-3 days will be important.  For now, decent chance at a good pattern in the aforementioned timeframe.

[Carvers Gap]

As for the MJO, the CPC plots have it all over the place and all over the COD, but with very low amplitude.  I can't find a single plot that gains amplitude.  It is very difficult to find even a pattern among the cobwebs of plots.   

I think Jax's chi image from yesterday is pretty accurate.  Six is going to fire-up for a few days, and then fade.  There will be mild activity in the 8 region continuously.  The signal gets washed out.

I did think of this.  Can anyone post the daily PDO graph (the one with the running line graph so we can see a trend)?

I am going to get my run in for this AM and watch some CFB playoffs.  I probably won't post about 12z until the last ensemble runs(EPS) around 2:30.  I know some of you think when I don't post...it must have been a bad suite.  Nope.  Life just get in the way as it should!  This is going to be a great football day.

[Weatheriscool]

5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

As for the MJO, the CPC plots have it all over the place and all over the COD, but with very low amplitude.  I can't find a single plot that gains amplitude.  It is very difficult to find even a pattern among the cobwebs of plots.   

I think Jax's chi image from yesterday is pretty accurate.  Six is going to fire-up for a few days, and then fade.  There will be mild activity in the 8 region continuously.  The signal gets washed out.

I did think of this.  Can anyone post the daily PDO graph (the one with the running line graph so we can see a trend)?

I am going to get my run in for this AM and watch some CFB playoffs.  I probably won't post about 12z until the last ensemble runs(EPS) around 2:30.  I know some of you think when I don't post...it must have been a bad suite.  Nope.  Life just get in the way as it should!  This is going to be a great football day.

With great power comes great responsibility!