January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Daniel Boone]

33 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Jax is such a straight shooter...I didn't even consider it a typo.  Keeping it raw, rapid, and real in the moment, those missing characters can and will find you. Part of the fun as posters on a mission. Not to mention, when shortcuts fail, shift happens. *Crickets* I'll see myself out. Happy New Year, everyone!

Lol true. I was just carrying on with him. I couldn't help it, lol. I thought he may of intentionally used that word if you put it in Context. Depending whether or not the occurrence was desired or not. He's a good Poster. Great with Teleconnections.

[Matthew70]

6 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Lol true. I was just carrying on with him. I couldn't help it, lol. I thought he may of intentionally used that word if you put it in Context. Depending whether or not the occurrence was desired or not. He's a good Poster. Great with Teleconnections.

Solid he is. I thought it was funny also. 
 

[jaxjagman]

4 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, that's valid points Jax. I'm sure you meant Shift though  lol.

I plead the 5th

[jaxjagman]

5 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

So, when I look at that.  I see an East African/IO wave working from 1-2 to 4-5 and then to 6(and then fizzling out).  I also see some convection at the dateline which is phase 8.  Looks like the phase 6 dies out.  In my mind, that would correspond to the warm waves prior to the 12th per lagged composites?  Looks pretty weakfish to me in general with 2-3 strong days in 6.  I think HL blocking eventually trumps it unless it holds onto that stronger look for more than 2-3 days.

This is true.Just to clarify myself.I'm not saying this is gloom and doom,i should have worded my words better.

But its really been a unusual pattern so far.You see this standing wave along the MC,WP  since fall and the interaction with Rossby and Kelvin waves the past few weeks is killing the MJO signal and more than likely will continue.

When you have a +TNH which is what social media is the talk about,this causes the trough axis to shift west,then you see the subtropical ridge over Florida.But,this looks more transient on todays ensembles on the long range.

I honestly wouldnt trust any of the LR models right now.

[Matthew70]

19 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

This is true.Just to clarify myself.I'm not saying this is gloom and doom,i should have worded my words better.

But its really been a unusual pattern so far.You see this standing wave along the MC,WP  since fall and the interaction with Rossby and Kelvin waves the past few weeks is killing the MJO signal and more than likely will continue.

When you have a +TNH which is what social media is the talk about,this causes the trough axis to shift west,then you see the subtropical ridge over Florida.But,this looks more transient on todays ensembles on the long range.

I honestly wouldnt trust any of the LR models right now.

I really feel we have allowed way too much outside noise affect wx forecasting.  These models have no clue what to digest anymore.  We have made something that was already complicated even more complicated.  I believe the models should not be able to go past 240 hours at most.