January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Weatheriscool]

4 minutes ago, housemtnTN said:

The 12z GFS spawned some type of monstrosity on January 11th.

Yea, that ice storm for Arkansas was crazy, some places over 5" of ice 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think Carvers is headed to Nash vegas for the Music City bowl, and he usually gets us started in the AM. Def. some pull back across multiple sub forums here and Southernwx against all the excitement of the fantasy storms yesterday centered on Jan 8 and beyond

We'll see how the wheel of models spins today. 

 

 

I was 50/50 on going to the MCB.   I ended up staying in Kingsport.  I have a kiddo who plays in the band for the good guys which is why I wanted it to be warm.  They are gonna freeze their tails off!  I about froze at the Vandy game.  

Thankfully, they are young and good at what they do!!!  I get to make the midnight run to Knoxville tonight for pickup! I do love it, though.  I should be here for the 0z runs.  Haha.

I slept-in a bit this morning - by my standards.  Then I went running, and pretty much froze.  Stopped at four miles and had enough of the wind chill.  

As for modeling.  I think they jumped the gun just a hair and are correcting.  It is more than common for models to be about a week ahead of the actual pattern change.  Overall, the BIG event is Jan 8-9 when the EPO ridge goes up.  I still see that, and it looks like it is moving forward with time.  Also, models lose things in the 5-7 day range...so there is that.  

I still very much like where we are headed.  VERY MUCH.  

Honestly, I like reading what you all post.  So, sometimes I just back down my volume a bit which can be a bit much.  Our daily 12z GFS "this ain't gonna happen" post -> but if it did -> The Day After Tomorrow.

 

[Carvers Gap]

10 minutes ago, Weatheriscool said:

Yea, that ice storm for Arkansas was crazy, some places over 5" of ice 

I had not noticed that, but whoa!  See, I think middle and west Tenn have to really guard against this.   This has been a really common feature in past winters.  These cold fronts head to Texas(there you go @Daniel Boone) and the front gets hung-up over our forum area.  

[Weatheriscool]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

I had not noticed that, but whoa!  See, I think middle and west Tenn have to really guard against this.   This has been a really common feature in past winters.  These cold fronts head to Texas(there you go @Daniel Boone) and the front gets hung-up over our forum area.  

I cant recall seeing that much ice modeled before even if it is out in fantasy land! 

 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Save the itchy algae! said:

I take it was not great for models overnight given the lack of posts.


.

Definitely a warm trend between say Jan 4-8.  The pattern change to an eastern trough still looks good by Jan8-10th.  Modeling could easily be missing a cold front in that range.  Still, things look reasonably on track.  Dec29-Jan10 looks like a transition time frame where the ridge retrogrades into the West.  Jan 10 looks like a new pattern w/ an EPO ridge in the West.  It has taken a while for the dust to settle, but that is where I "think" we are heading.

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Weatheriscool said:

I cant recall seeing that much ice modeled before even if it is out in fantasy land! 

 

Sending an active STJ into an NAO block could get wild during January.  It is probably feed back as the GFS is just chocked full of it, but that look has precedent.  

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, Weatheriscool said:

I cant recall seeing that much ice modeled before even if it is out in fantasy land! 

 

Did you have to make a new account?  You have been on the forum for a while, right?  

[Weatheriscool]

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Did you have to make a new account?  You have been on the forum for a while, right?  

Yes, had to make a new one, been on here a while, mainly lurk but always try to soak up as much knowledge as possible! You are right, the look has precedent, hopefully the look is gone next model run, I dont wish any amount of ice on anyone much less that much.  

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, Weatheriscool said:

Yes, had to make a new one, been on here a while, mainly lurk but always try to soak up as much knowledge as possible! You are right, the look has precedent, hopefully the look is gone next model run, I dont wish any amount of ice on anyone much less that much.  

I definitely know your avatar and Cottonwood as a location.  Good to have you back and posting again this winter.  You do a great job.

[Carvers Gap]

One thing I am noticing on several deterministic runs and on some ensembles(wonky GEFS at 12z)...there is a strong signal for an Arctic discharge just after the 10th.  The AIFS Euro definitely shows this.  IF that EPO ridge goes up, and I think it does, we could see very cold air sent into the Lower 48.  Some modeling sets the EPO ridge too far to the the West, but I bet we do ok w/ that look.

[Weatheriscool]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

I definitely know your avatar and Cottonwood as a location.  Good to have you back and posting again this winter.  You do a great job.

Thank you, we all have the commonality of having a fascination with the weather and most of us have varied experience levels. Conversations always seem to be educationally beneficial even if we miss a system

[Carvers Gap]

You all know that I like the Euro Weeklies control run...the CFSv2 at 6z is also crazy cold like that.  The key right now is for the EPO ridge to build and the NAO to retrograde over the top into that EPO ridge.  If that happens, there is really nothing to stop the cold from heading south.  With deep snowpack over Canada, the skids are greased.  

[Carvers Gap]

This is where I think we are headed - starts about 300 on most models.  Somehow, the Canadian model seems to get this figured out a bit more quickly of late.  It overdoes the cold, but generally gets the idea right.  BTW, the 12z Euro has a cold front Jan4-5 w/ a low running just out to sea - keep an eye on that.

I mean there is always a chance we don't score with this, but I would have a really hard time naming a time when this didn't work.  Maybe December 17-18?  Lost of great winter analog maps looks like this.

[Carvers Gap]

And the 12z GEFS...did it finally find its way?  That looks a lot like the GEPS.  And that makes a lot of sense.  IF that can verify w/ that little bit of SER, that is an Apps snowstorm map as well as sliders for the rest of the forum.

[Carvers Gap]

The Euro AIFS 12z deterministic run.  I just go w/ a 5 day window to see the trend...Pretty good signal, right?  That is a crazy cold run by the way.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z AIGEFS at 360.  It has the EPO ridge in place by 240, and then takes a couple of days to kick everything eastward - common theme for the 12z suite.  Honestly, this look might be too cold.  But see the NAO isn't really gone?

 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z EPS gets there at the same time....all of the frames aren't posted yet.  Pretty good continuity.  And if we are too assume that ensembles are struggling to see cold this winter....they are cold now.  What if the warm bias is still in play?  The 12z EPS is gonna look about as good as it has all winter at Jan 10+.

[Weatheriscool]

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z EPS gets there at the same time....all of the frames aren't posted yet.  Pretty good continuity.  And if we are too assume that ensembles are struggling to see cold this winter....they are cold now.  What if the warm bias is still in play?  The 12z EPS is gonna look about as good as it has all winter at Jan 10+.

I hope that we do not see any sub zero stuff, my landscaping is still in recovery mode from the last two seasons.

[Save the itchy algae!]

I think Carvers is headed to Nash vegas for the Music City bowl, and he usually gets us started in the AM.
 
 

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[Carvers Gap]

The BIG question in my mind was this, "What happens after the Dec29-30th cold front?" I think a probable, and even likely answer, is now this.  Dec 29-Jan10 is a transition timeframe as the eastern ridge retrogrades into the West.  We get a TBD window where the EPO ridge just brings it.  It would be hard to find a deterministic or ensemble run which doesn't end up here.  The 12z EPS has that EPO ridge in place around 216, and then begins pushing a trough towards the east at that time.  By 324 we get this ->

The original window was Jan 8-10, and they may yet still verify.  I would say the window is now Jan 12th, give or take a few days.  Sometimes a big pattern like this is preceded by a big storm.  Modeling across various products at 12z has a progression which makes sense given the analogs for this winter, recent Nina climatology, the QBO state, and...it is January - climatology fits.  Good trends.  Now, it is time to reel this look in.  Get the pattern right, and then we can track.

edit:  Notice how well that tele connects?  Cold in Europe.  Cold in the East.  HL blocking.  Trough near Hawaii.  Four quadrants of cold air.  IF that builds, that could be tough to break down.

[Daniel Boone]

49 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I had not noticed that, but whoa!  See, I think middle and west Tenn have to really guard against this.   This has been a really common feature in past winters.  These cold fronts head to Texas(there you go @Daniel Boone) and the front gets hung-up over our forum area.  

Yep, exactly what you and I had discussed. Man, if this does transpire can you imagine the shock to the front range and Southern Plains ?! They've been dominated by that heat Ridge for a Couple Months for the most part. Denver is at Record level for least Snow at this Juncture.

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yep, exactly what you and I had discussed. Man, if this does transpire can you imagine the shock to the front range and Southern Plains ?! They've been dominated by that heat Ridge for a Couple Months for the most part. Denver is at Record level for least Snow at this Juncture.

You know if it was the late 1800s, and I had a ranch on the Plains...I would be thrilled with the warm weather.  Why?  Because without having to look at a weather model, I know that type of weather wasn't going to last!  

[AMZ8990]

 That January 10th-15th 2026 timeframe is looking more and more promising.  The timing of it is eerily similar to our January 9th/10th storm from earlier this year.  We definitely want no part of the Ice storm its showing.  As far as clown maps go that was a doozy for central Arkansas, (53 inches ZR).  

[Carvers Gap]

12z EPS teleconnections.  The NAO and AO remain negative, albeit weakly, as the EPO goes deeply negative.  The WPO also goes weakly negative.  The PNA goes neutral to slightly positive.  When I first started following weather output on the internet, I used to only look teleconnection graphics and the NOGAPS.  I don't think I did any worse then than I do today in the long range.  But as for the teleconnection package as a whole...great look and they rarely line-up that well.  Let's see if we can resell this in.......