January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

Just wanted to quickly pop in and say thanks to @Carvers Gap @jaxjagman @*Flash* 

I read a lot of what you guys post in here, its very informative, detailed, and easy to understand.  I really appreciate your posts and discussions.

If i missed someone, my deepest apologies.

I echo this sentiment. Lots of good analysis in here. 

[John1122]

I really wish the models didn't just keep reloading the -pna.  You can see in the brief positive periods we get very cold, but it quickly flips to - and we warm way up. The AR breaking down is a positive but getting to the +pna will really really help if we can get there and get any staying power with it.  The GGEM/GEPS is best at the +pna and is therefore by far the coldest. 

[Carvers Gap]

After a pretty ho-hum first 240 hours...the 12z Euro slides a slp along the low road.  

[Carvers Gap]

12 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I really wish the models didn't just keep reloading the -pna.  You can see in the brief positive periods we get very cold, but it quickly flips to - and we warm way up. The AR breaking down is a positive but getting to the +pna will really really help if we can get there and get any staying power with it.  The GGEM/GEPS is best at the +pna and is therefore by far the coldest. 

I "think" the ridge in the east kind of retrogrades westward....pops, gets beat down, pops up westward until about Jan 8-10 when it hits the best location.  I am hoping with that AR out of the way, the trough which forms in the GOA is far enough west to allow the PNA or EPO to form.

[Carvers Gap]

Not sure how I am out to 258 at 500 on WxBell w/ the surface graphics lagging...but that looks like winter storm.

[Carvers Gap]

After 240, the NAO has simply taken over the pattern on the 12z Euro.  Really good run after a meh-run by the 12z GFS.

[Carvers Gap]

The fly in the ointment for the 12z Euro (which has a better 500 patter) is the lack of a decent cold source for NA.  Both the GEM and GFS don't evacuate all of that air.  I "think" we are about to hit a pretty good time frame...but we don't want to lose that cold source.

[John1122]

 

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

The fly in the ointment for the 12z Euro (which has a better 500 patter) is the lack of a decent cold source for NA.  Both the GEM and GFS don't evacuate all of that air.  I "think" we are about to hit a pretty good time frame...but we don't want to lose that cold source.

It's wild how scoured out the cold gets on the Euro AI. The entire NA continent is AN to much AN as soon as the Aleutian ridge breaks down. It's like it's the only thing delivering cold to our source region, but as soon as it leaves, all cold goes with it and Pacific air floods everywhere.

[Daniel Boone]

23 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I really wish the models didn't just keep reloading the -pna.  You can see in the brief positive periods we get very cold, but it quickly flips to - and we warm way up. The AR breaking down is a positive but getting to the +pna will really really help if we can get there and get any staying power with it.  The GGEM/GEPS is best at the +pna and is therefore by far the coldest. 

As we've discussed, we need any semblance of an Alaskan Vortex or GOA Low to erode or shift away.

[Daniel Boone]

Hopefully, we keep enough cold in Canada that even with the troubled NPAC, we still score as strong Blocking can still get the Job done.

[Carvers Gap]

6 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

As we've discussed, we need any semblance of an Alaskan Vortex or GOA Low to erode or shift away.

I wonder if the reason some of the better winters flirt with the Aleutian high...is that it allows Canada to fill with cold.  As you note, the GOA low often floods Canada with PAC air if it isn't far enough west.  The good thing is most deterministic modeling is putting a ridge in the EPO region after d10...so maybe the Alaska situation is temporary. 

The other great thing is modeling is just slaw after 120 hours right now.  LOL.  I mean it is choose your own adventure.  As you note as well, that block "should" get it done.  With it being January, we can get by with Canadian cold.  A lot of modeling is very close to something good during that first and second week of January.

[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Hopefully, we keep enough cold in Canada that even with the troubled NPAC, we still score as strong Blocking can still get the Job done.

You can see the pattern evolve to coastals on the Euro.  I suspect what we see is some sort of TPV get trapped under an EPO/NAO block which bridges across.  I just think modeling isn't quite there yet.  Models are so very close at 12z.  I think we keep the cold...but again, January seasonal will get it done.

[Daniel Boone]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

I wonder if the reason some of the better winters flirt with the Aleutian high...is that it allows Canada to fill with cold.  As you note, the GOA low often floods Canada with PAC air if it isn't far enough west.  The good thing is most deterministic modeling is putting a ridge in the EPO region after d10...so maybe the Alaska situation is temporary. 

The other great thing is modeling is just slaw after 120 hours right now.  LOL.  I mean it is choose your own adventure.  As you note as well, that block "should" get it done.  With it being January, we can get by with Canadian cold.  A lot of modeling is very close to something good during that first and second week of January.

Perfectly said and exactly what the deal is imo brother!

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, Daniel Boone said:

Perfectly said and exactly what the deal is imo brother!

Kind of a yin and yang look.  But if I showed you this....not a bad look.  When I toggled to a 5 day 500 pattern, this is what I got.  Kind of like putting it in the blender and washing out the craziness.  That will work, and it is cold.  That storm signal is almost perfect with the low inside Hatteras. 

[Daniel Boone]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

You can see the pattern evolve to coastals on the Euro.  I suspect what we see is some sort of TPV get trapped under an EPO/NAO block which bridges across.  I just think modeling isn't quite there yet.  Models are so very close at 12z.  I think we keep the cold...but again, January seasonal will get it done.

Yeah, been thinking about how close that is to happening and it causing me anguish to see how a couple little Flies keep hampering it from evolving on Modeling, lol

[Daniel Boone]

7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Kind of a yin and yang look.  But if I showed you this....not a bad look.  When I toggled to a 5 day 500 pattern, this is what I got.  Kind of like putting it in the blender and washing out the craziness.  That will work, and it is cold.  That storm signal is almost perfect with the low inside Hatteras. 

Yeah, that looks ideal for STJ and Gulf Action on up through Hattras as you said. Man, providing there's enough cold and it looks to be, and the STJ is active enough that would be great. 

Edit: The only concern might be is STJ systems taking a bit too low road, especially if weak. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, been thinking about how close that is to happening and it causing me anguish to see how a couple little Flies keep hampering it from evolving on Modeling, lol

The 12z Euro...I don't even know what it is doing after 300.  In my mind, I am kind of just tossing crazy looks.  Hopefully, I am not tossing something that is going to actually happen.  But the overall trend at 12z on both deterministic and ensembles is to slide the NAO towards the Davis Straits, build some type of ridging in the NAO/PNA region, Alaska stays cold(good thing I think this time around), and an evolving storm track along the East Coast.  I would be really surprised not to see some sort of Arctic outbreak during January.  

The good thing is there is a bit more juice (precip) to squeeze since about 0z overnight.  

As @John1122noted, we definitely have to beware of Canada getting scoured.  We have seen that during recent winters.  I freely admit that could happen.  I do kind of think we may see a chunk of that cold get dislodged southward and get trapped under a block until the cold just spins and burns out.  I could easily be wrong.  If that happens, Canada would stay cold enough.

[jaxjagman]

4 hours ago, yoda said:

Just wanted to quickly pop in and say thanks to @Carvers Gap @jaxjagman @*Flash* 

I read a lot of what you guys post in here, its very informative, detailed, and easy to understand.  I really appreciate your posts and discussions.

If i missed someone, my deepest apologies.

Thx,you dont piss anyone off here,glad you post here

[Carvers Gap]

This is a really good look IMHO from the 12z suite.  The NAO shifts to west based.  Ridge forms out West w/ a trough east of Hawaii.  Cold source in Alaska.  The EPS does go AN for much of Canada, but it doesn't scour it like the deterministic.  Plus, medium and LR models haven't been stellar in "seeing" cold.  Overall, decent agreement at 500 w/ details obviously scarce at this range.  I kind of blend all of those together.  Considering everything will be really washed out at this range...not bad.

 

 

[*Flash*]

If you're in the mid-Atlantic, you're sittin' right for the first time in a long time. Pattern screams potential especially for those in decadal snow drought territory. If there ever was a time to root for our coastal friends, it's now. 

[*Flash*]

When the fun and games begin, it wouldn't surprise me if my area was outside where the best entrance/exit jet regions set up. I know it's far out but that's just my gut looking at the upper air and beyond. Growing up I recall several storms that organized just in time for middle TN to pick up a few inches before exploding into something more east of the Apps. As it was said earlier today, the pattern has an old-school vibe to it. 

[Carvers Gap]

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I echo this sentiment. Lots of good analysis in here. 

 

4 hours ago, yoda said:

Just wanted to quickly pop in and say thanks to @Carvers Gap @jaxjagman @*Flash* 

I read a lot of what you guys post in here, its very informative, detailed, and easy to understand.  I really appreciate your posts and discussions.

If i missed someone, my deepest apologies.

Thank you.  Yes, there are so many great posters here.  If I started naming all of them, I would miss someone.  They make this subform the great place that it is.  Many thanks to them and to you both as well!

[jaxjagman]

I took my shit down this morning while it was warm..lol

 

SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

After an intensely foggy morning, it`s cloudy and very muggy out
there. Temperatures have warmed into the low 60s so far and will
make at run at 70 by this afternoon. The remainder of today will be
cloudy and dry as the ridge responsible for our spell of above-
normal warmth finally shifts to our east. Behind the exiting
ridge will come a fairly strong upper low that will push a strong
cold front through Middle TN Sunday night. Ahead of the frontal
passage, flow aloft will transition out of the southwest, drawing
anomalously high moisture into the area. Looking at soundings,
instability overall is very limited with less than 100 J/kg and
profiles are totally saturated. With that being said, a 60 kt low-
level jet will be in place as this line moves through, and if any
of that wind can mix down, there will be a chance for a gusts up
to 40-50 mph with the line. With regards to any tornado
potential, the threat is very, very low. Low-level helicities and
shear are more than sufficient, but limited instability and weak
lapse rates will make tor development very difficult. The most
likely scenario is that a narrow band of heavy rain and gusty
winds will move through tomorrow night between 7pm-1am.

Non-thunderstorm gradient winds will be gusty tomorrow as the
surface low moves across our north. There will be a steady breeze
with gusts up to 35 mph at times. Here`s your notice now to get
those outdoor Christmas decorations down!

[*Flash*]

2 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

I took my shit down this morning while it was warm..lol

 

SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

After an intensely foggy morning, it`s cloudy and very muggy out
there. Temperatures have warmed into the low 60s so far and will
make at run at 70 by this afternoon. The remainder of today will be
cloudy and dry as the ridge responsible for our spell of above-
normal warmth finally shifts to our east. Behind the exiting
ridge will come a fairly strong upper low that will push a strong
cold front through Middle TN Sunday night. Ahead of the frontal
passage, flow aloft will transition out of the southwest, drawing
anomalously high moisture into the area. Looking at soundings,
instability overall is very limited with less than 100 J/kg and
profiles are totally saturated. With that being said, a 60 kt low-
level jet will be in place as this line moves through, and if any
of that wind can mix down, there will be a chance for a gusts up
to 40-50 mph with the line. With regards to any tornado
potential, the threat is very, very low. Low-level helicities and
shear are more than sufficient, but limited instability and weak
lapse rates will make tor development very difficult. The most
likely scenario is that a narrow band of heavy rain and gusty
winds will move through tomorrow night between 7pm-1am.

Non-thunderstorm gradient winds will be gusty tomorrow as the
surface low moves across our north. There will be a steady breeze
with gusts up to 35 mph at times. Here`s your notice now to get
those outdoor Christmas decorations down!

Props to you. I take Christmas down mid-January and then leave the 'winter' vibe items out until...basically calendar spring. Winter is my favorite season IF it cooperates.