January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

Just wanted to quickly pop in and say thanks to @Carvers Gap @jaxjagman @*Flash* 

I read a lot of what you guys post in here, its very informative, detailed, and easy to understand.  I really appreciate your posts and discussions.

If i missed someone, my deepest apologies.

I echo this sentiment. Lots of good analysis in here. 

[John1122]

I really wish the models didn't just keep reloading the -pna.  You can see in the brief positive periods we get very cold, but it quickly flips to - and we warm way up. The AR breaking down is a positive but getting to the +pna will really really help if we can get there and get any staying power with it.  The GGEM/GEPS is best at the +pna and is therefore by far the coldest. 

[Carvers Gap]

After a pretty ho-hum first 240 hours...the 12z Euro slides a slp along the low road.  

[Carvers Gap]

12 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I really wish the models didn't just keep reloading the -pna.  You can see in the brief positive periods we get very cold, but it quickly flips to - and we warm way up. The AR breaking down is a positive but getting to the +pna will really really help if we can get there and get any staying power with it.  The GGEM/GEPS is best at the +pna and is therefore by far the coldest. 

I "think" the ridge in the east kind of retrogrades westward....pops, gets beat down, pops up westward until about Jan 8-10 when it hits the best location.  I am hoping with that AR out of the way, the trough which forms in the GOA is far enough west to allow the PNA or EPO to form.