Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[MikeB_01]

2 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Do we think we're getting below 0 tonight?  Seems too cloudy to me, at least right now.

 

i think it will get there. Where the clouds have cleared over ohio, the temps are plummeting. just need to get the stubborn clouds to move out. If you check the satellite imagery, they are moving. 

[colonel717]

All models tonight show trough becoming more west oriented for the weekend storm. Still not affecting us but this has been our winter and it just wants to snow here so I wouldn't be surprised if things trend our way to at least a 6+ storm 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Couldn't have asked for a better day after the storm yesterday. Deep cold and on and off mood flakes / fresh coatings.

Looks like another round of light snow today, probably a coating to an inch type deal.

Weekend threat isn't dead, but odds are low for any impact here. NWS take on the situation:

In one scenario, the upper low occludes earlier (Friday into
Saturday), forcing surface cyclogenesis tighter to the coast. In
this scenario, there may be ascent in the northwest quadrant of
the low and the potential for frontogenetical banding (highest
probability in western/central PA and northern WV). Using a
quick probability of 0.15" QPF (approx 3" of snow at 20:1), this
would produce ~60% chance of at least advisory snows. Though
this scenario is around 25% likely overall.

In the other scenario, the trough either does not produce a
closed low or produces a closed low too late and off the
Atlantic coast. This would produce cyclogenesis too far east,
only resulting in a ~10% chance of advisory snows. This scenario
is 75% likely overall.

[TimB]

11 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Do we think we're getting below 0 tonight?  Seems too cloudy to me, at least right now.

 

I’d question whether we “officially” get below zero any mornings other than Friday and Saturday, which look like slam dunks, but even those don’t look like spectacular radiational cooling nights. We just don’t do radiational cooling well in this region in general due to cloud cover, but the airport does it especially poorly.

[Burghblizz]

Down to 1 degree IMBY this morning with a 14” snowpack. These are the good old days. 

[PghPirates27]

-0.4 IMBY this morning can feel that cold air in my lungs when I open the door. Hits differently.

[jwilson]

Weekend threat is a wave spacing issue, it looks to me.  There's not enough separation with the elongated energy at the front-end (the main lobe), and the backside piece of energy isn't phasing in to the main pool.

In bigger storms with this kind of arrangement, you'd typically see the stretched lobe break off into two pieces, and the backside piece would phase with other energy while the other piece out front acts as a block.

It was always an extremely delicate setup.  Probably not worth investing in unless we're <48 hours and getting consistent results.  Likewise hard to predict because there's so much energy flying around.

[colonel717]

[Burghblizz]

9 minutes ago, jwilson said:

Weekend threat is a wave spacing issue, it looks to me.  There's not enough separation with the elongated energy at the front-end (the main lobe), and the backside piece of energy isn't phasing in to the main pool.

In bigger storms with this kind of arrangement, you'd typically see the stretched lobe break off into two pieces, and the backside piece would phase with other energy while the other piece out front acts as a block.

It was always an extremely delicate setup.  Probably not worth investing in unless we're <48 hours and getting consistent results.  Likewise hard to predict because there's so much energy flying around.

Weenie in me says with that type of energy the ranges of possibilities are wider at this point. And I envision this retrograding bomb tracking through Philly 
 

But I agree - tying to keep it to only a quick check at this point. Seems low probability with anything major here 

[colonel717]

GFS just came NW big time. Still long shot but not as big. EUROAI has been highest scoring model so need it to comes west with the EURO.

[MikeB_01]

17 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Weenie in me says with that type of energy the ranges of possibilities are wider at this point. And I envision this retrograding bomb tracking through Philly 
 

But I agree - tying to keep it to only a quick check at this point. Seems low probability with anything major here 

i think nws pit gave it a 10% chance of giving us 1-3. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Light to moderate snow, 9 degrees and wind is whipping up. Pure deep winter out there right now! 

[colonel717]

Hope this doesn't move through quickly. Mod/heavy now

[MikeB_01]

Hope this doesn't move through quickly. Mod/heavy now

Can we squeeze another .5”?


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[Burghblizz]

1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said:

Can we squeeze another .5”?


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I got that on a newly cleared sidewalk - but hard to say how much blowing snow contributed. This batch is more about some nice scenery than anything too heavy. 

[colonel717]

5 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Can we squeeze another .5”?


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I think its moving too quickly for that. Maybe 1/4 inch.

[colonel717]

I'm riding the CFS. It had 3in as depth before this. Gives us 16 inches this weekend... 

[Burghblizz]

39 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

I'm riding the CFS. It had 3in as depth before this. Gives us 16 inches this weekend... 

Weenie model - but you have had the hot hand since last week. 

[colonel717]

7 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Weenie model - but you have had the hot hand since last week. 

I'm trying to reel it in...And the latest run just lost it... JMA a no also.. I'm scrambling. Latest DGEX anybody...This is about the time there were big changes for Sundays storm.. If it doesn't happen by 0z, as Bob Prince used to say, "You can kiss it goodbye" 

[MikeB_01]

even if the models are not showing anything, we still have analogs in our favor. Here is the mean snowfall for the time period on the GFS -- would seem to indicate a decent chance for a 1-3 or 2-4 snowfall. At least we can hope

[Rd9108]

Ehh idk about the next threat but if temps stay below normal we will have plenty of chances to get another storm. Odds are it won't be the 12+ big dog but I could still see another warning event.

[colonel717]

@Burghblizz Not sure if this squall line holds together or how far south it will extend, but looks like at least Butler Co should see it come through if you take it due east. It is getting very dark here. Looks like snow. 

[north pgh]

Any one else notice that line snow squall line moving thru Cleveland? It would be interesting if it would hold together and move thru here early this evening. 

 

[north pgh]

2 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

@Burghblizz Not sure if this squall line holds together or how far south it will extend, but looks like at least Butler Co should see it come through if you take it due east. It is getting very dark here. Looks like snow. 

I must of saw this the same time as you, lol

[colonel717]

4 minutes ago, north pgh said:

I must of saw this the same time as you, lol

I looked for some discussion of it. But nothing. You can see snow breaking out over central Ohio, so snow may develop along that front. Also now breaking out in front of the front. I am actually driving up to Grove City later tonight.

[colonel717]

Latest 18z Icon EPS, there are 5 pretty east members. 2 are in eastern PA for weekend

[Rd9108]

7 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Latest 18z Icon EPS, there are 5 pretty east members. 2 are in eastern PA for weekend

Think you meant west??

[MikeB_01]

Latest 18z Icon EPS, there are 5 pretty east members. 2 are in eastern PA for weekend

Based on this and the analogs that I shared earlier, I don’t think it’s crazy to keep it on the table. I don’t think we will get 8+, but not a bad look to hope for a 2-3” event. Plus it will be so cold everything will pile up quick


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[MikeB_01]

I looked for some discussion of it. But nothing. You can see snow breaking out over central Ohio, so snow may develop along that front. Also now breaking out in front of the front. I am actually driving up to Grove City later tonight.

Snow squall warnings all over the Cleveland metro and points southwest.


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[Rd9108]

Looks like it could clip Agh county if it holds together. Not really sure if it will.