Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[Rd9108]

Its official I've run out of places to throw all the snow.

[colonel717]

Looking at 6z EPS only out to hour 144 there are 7 members that look good. Lets see if we can improve upon that at 12z

[colonel717]

34 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

some mood snow flying around out there right now. 

Nice that there will be snow showers through tomorrow,. 

[colonel717]

Just looking at IMBY snow totals. January has just surpassed December. Had 20.225 in December and 20.5 so far in January. Add in .3 in November sitting at 41.025 for the year. In order for any winter to be a great winter for me monthly snow has to meet or exceed every monthly average, so far we are doing that. 

[colonel717]

Pgh met I asked about the 6z EPS.

"I have very low confidence in what the exact outcome for this will end up being. Way too many moving parts. I think the reason why you do see such a northwest lean on the 6z EPS spread has to do with this circled shortwave. More interaction would try to tug the 500 low farther west when climbing the coast."

 

[MikeB_01]

not sure if it helps, but CoCoRaHs is a good place to see the liquid equivalent with the snow measurements matched up. Sometimes you need to look at the reports closely because they don't always report at the same time, but it may give some insight into the ratios we had yesterday.  

All in all, I just dont think we had a deep enough or saturated enough DGZ to maximize snow growth. Its why our ratios were so low. It also explain why areas to the north did better with the ratios. That and the really nice frontogenesis that set up around butler co yesterday

 

[colonel717]

12z GEFS just took a big jump west. Still favors mostly east coast but big jump none the less

[MikeB_01]

Just now, colonel717 said:

12z GEFS just took a big jump west. Still favors mostly east coast but big jump none the less

i too am feeling the withdrawal. So anything out there to track, im in

[Rd9108]

3 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

i too am feeling the withdrawal. So anything out there to track, im in

I mean I never said I wouldn't track it but I certainly wont be upset if we miss. Curious to see what the euros show today.

[Burghblizz]

The beauty of this last week was that almost all guidance was in our favor. Hard to find even ensemble members that weren’t great. I have a feeling this week might be the opposite - we’ll have a model or too that reels us in, but it might be a longshot at this point. 

[SteelCity87]

12 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

The beauty of this last week was that almost all guidance was in our favor. Hard to find even ensemble members that weren’t great. I have a feeling this week might be the opposite - we’ll have a model or too that reels us in, but it might be a longshot at this point. 

Good thing is with the cold air in place it probably won't take much precip to get us to a 2-4 or 3-5 type deal. I'd love one more big snow but also content with just adding to snow pack right now. 

[Rd9108]

8 minutes ago, SteelCity87 said:

Good thing is with the cold air in place it probably won't take much precip to get us to a 2-4 or 3-5 type deal. I'd love one more big snow but also content with just adding to snow pack right now. 

Id take that. Eventually we get a big dog again but this set up screams Boxing day or a coastal scrapper. 

[southpark]

9 minutes ago, SteelCity87 said:

Good thing is with the cold air in place it probably won't take much precip to get us to a 2-4 or 3-5 type deal. I'd love one more big snow but also content with just adding to snow pack right now. 

Yeah I wouldn't mind a nice 3 to 5" clipper. No worrying about warm air, storm too far east, etc.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

1 hour ago, colonel717 said:

12z GEFS just took a big jump west. Still favors mostly east coast but big jump none the less

I feel like this one probably has a limit on how far NW it can come. The pieces that set it off are fairly close in time already, so not a lot of time for big adjustments. That being said, still something to track for now. NWS makes mention in the discussion too:

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Confidence remains high that cold temperatures will persist into
early February, as the large-scale pattern continues to favor a
strong ridge along the West Coast and a corresponding trough
over the East Coast, allowing cold Canadian air to be driven
southward. As a result, daytime temperatures are expected to
remain below freezing throughout this period, generally ranging
from the low to upper-teens. With little relief from the cold,
frozen pipes will pose the primary infrastructure concern
across the region. River ice is likely to continue forming area-
wide, with increasing thickness over the coming weeks and likely
impact river gauge readings.

Multiple models suggest a Nor`easter may develop along the
Atlantic Coast late this weekend, warranting close monitoring
for potential snow impacts over the next several days.

[MikeB_01]

5 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

I feel like this one probably has a limit on how far NW it can come. The pieces that set it off are fairly close in time already, so not a lot of time for big adjustments. That being said, still something to track for now. NWS makes mention in the discussion too:

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Confidence remains high that cold temperatures will persist into
early February, as the large-scale pattern continues to favor a
strong ridge along the West Coast and a corresponding trough
over the East Coast, allowing cold Canadian air to be driven
southward. As a result, daytime temperatures are expected to
remain below freezing throughout this period, generally ranging
from the low to upper-teens. With little relief from the cold,
frozen pipes will pose the primary infrastructure concern
across the region. River ice is likely to continue forming area-
wide, with increasing thickness over the coming weeks and likely
impact river gauge readings.

Multiple models suggest a Nor`easter may develop along the
Atlantic Coast late this weekend, warranting close monitoring
for potential snow impacts over the next several days.

so you're saying theres a chance... 

[MikeB_01]

record low for friday is -5°. Might be in jeopardy. 

[EVLINC64]

[Burghblizz]

4 minutes ago, EVLINC64 said:

This presentation tells the story a little better than that other one they had 

[passmaster16]

1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

I mean I never said I wouldn't track it but I certainly wont be upset if we miss. Curious to see what the euros show today.

Stop kidding yourself, you’ll be pulled back in if the models show a big hit 

[MikeB_01]

This presentation tells the story a little better than that other one they had 

Just wondering why they included the 14 from and the 18! From Monessen and New Stanton area?

Gotta be drifts.. I might dig a little and try to find if that one came from a trained spotter or not.


.

[colonel717]

I noticed it starting to darken up, and looks like more snow showers moving into the area.

[colonel717]

The organic forecasting method has been pretty good at sniffing out timeframes for storms this year. The next best chance would appear to be Feb 5th -7th or 11th-12th.

[Mailman]

Still shocked I only had 5 minutes of mixed precipitation. 

[Mailman]

Appears we're in it for the long haul.

[MikeB_01]

2 minutes ago, Mailman said:

Still shocked I only had 5 minutes of mixed precipitation. 

i said it late last night, but for once, the DWTOD didnt win. And i thought it was modeled extremely well