Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[Rd9108]

Its official I've run out of places to throw all the snow.

[colonel717]

Looking at 6z EPS only out to hour 144 there are 5 members that look good. Lets see if we can improve upon that at 12z

[colonel717]

34 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

some mood snow flying around out there right now. 

Nice that there will be snow showers through tomorrow,. 

[colonel717]

Just looking at IMBY snow totals. January has just surpassed December. Had 20.225 in December and 20.5 so far in January. Add in .3 in November sitting at 41.025 for the year. In order for any winter to be a great winter for me monthly snow has to meet or exceed every monthly average, so far we are doing that. 

[colonel717]

Pgh met I asked about the 6z EPS.

"I have very low confidence in what the exact outcome for this will end up being. Way too many moving parts. I think the reason why you do see such a northwest lean on the 6z EPS spread has to do with this circled shortwave. More interaction would try to tug the 500 low farther west when climbing the coast."

 

[MikeB_01]

not sure if it helps, but CoCoRaHs is a good place to see the liquid equivalent with the snow measurements matched up. Sometimes you need to look at the reports closely because they don't always report at the same time, but it may give some insight into the ratios we had yesterday.  

All in all, I just dont think we had a deep enough or saturated enough DGZ to maximize snow growth. Its why our ratios were so low. It also explain why areas to the north did better with the ratios. That and the really nice frontogenesis that set up around butler co yesterday

 

[colonel717]

12z GEFS just took a big jump west. Still favors mostly east coast but big jump none the less

[MikeB_01]

Just now, colonel717 said:

12z GEFS just took a big jump west. Still favors mostly east coast but big jump none the less

i too am feeling the withdrawal. So anything out there to track, im in

[Rd9108]

3 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

i too am feeling the withdrawal. So anything out there to track, im in

I mean I never said I wouldn't track it but I certainly wont be upset if we miss. Curious to see what the euros show today.

[Burghblizz]

The beauty of this last week was that almost all guidance was in our favor. Hard to find even ensemble members that weren’t great. I have a feeling this week might be the opposite - we’ll have a model or too that reels us in, but it might be a longshot at this point. 

[SteelCity87]

12 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

The beauty of this last week was that almost all guidance was in our favor. Hard to find even ensemble members that weren’t great. I have a feeling this week might be the opposite - we’ll have a model or too that reels us in, but it might be a longshot at this point. 

Good thing is with the cold air in place it probably won't take much precip to get us to a 2-4 or 3-5 type deal. I'd love one more big snow but also content with just adding to snow pack right now. 

[Rd9108]

8 minutes ago, SteelCity87 said:

Good thing is with the cold air in place it probably won't take much precip to get us to a 2-4 or 3-5 type deal. I'd love one more big snow but also content with just adding to snow pack right now. 

Id take that. Eventually we get a big dog again but this set up screams Boxing day or a coastal scrapper. 

[southpark]

9 minutes ago, SteelCity87 said:

Good thing is with the cold air in place it probably won't take much precip to get us to a 2-4 or 3-5 type deal. I'd love one more big snow but also content with just adding to snow pack right now. 

Yeah I wouldn't mind a nice 3 to 5" clipper. No worrying about warm air, storm too far east, etc.