southpark Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, SteelCity87 said: My main concern because I can't either. I noticed point and click has a mix included now all the way to to Mckeesport. The possibility of sleet after 4pm tomorrow in my forecast too. Did bump up my possible snow/sleet total from 5 to 9 to 6 to 10 for Sunday during the day though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago The radar over sw oklahoma and texas is certainly more impressive than what the HRRR has modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago I’m really wondering how things will be here at 7 springs. Such a small microclimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago I know I'll be mixing. I just hope it doesn't last very long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago The radar over sw oklahoma and texas is certainly more impressive than what the HRRR has modeled. Wha about the temperature profiles? Nashville was colder than modeled earlier. Not sure if it still is. But I think the snow was hanging a little longer than Mets down there thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, Mailman said: I know I'll be mixing. I just hope it doesn't last very long. I am just happy that most of whatever snow I get will fall during the day so I can see it fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Not that itnmeans anything but another obs Apparently according to twitter NAM is doing great so far Little Rock it had basically nothing just sleet they’re @ 6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago One last post then I have to get a shower and get ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 50 minutes ago Share Posted 50 minutes ago 17 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Not that itnmeans anything but another obs Apparently according to twitter NAM is doing great so far Little Rock it had basically nothing just sleet they’re @ 6 inches Do you mean NAM is bad? Saw PB posted this Little Rock Arkansas has 5 to 7 inches NAM yesterday? NOTHING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted 49 minutes ago Share Posted 49 minutes ago took this off the central pa forum. This is positive yes? Not sure what it translates to here, but at least it is south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted 48 minutes ago Share Posted 48 minutes ago 2 minutes ago, colonel717 said: Do you mean NAM is bad? Saw PB posted this Little Rock Arkansas has 5 to 7 inches NAM yesterday? NOTHING wow, this is some confusing information about little rock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted 44 minutes ago Share Posted 44 minutes ago 3 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: wow, this is some confusing information about little rock Yes NAM is bad it sounds like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted 43 minutes ago Share Posted 43 minutes ago 5 minutes ago, colonel717 said: Do you mean NAM is bad? Saw PB posted this Little Rock Arkansas has 5 to 7 inches NAM yesterday? NOTHING Just looked at NWS Little Rock's page. They forcasted for 2-4 in the metro. So a slight over performer than forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 42 minutes ago Share Posted 42 minutes ago 4 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: wow, this is some confusing information about little rock I think he meant to say not doing great so far. Maybe I am wrong which wouldn't be the first... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted 41 minutes ago Share Posted 41 minutes ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 38 minutes ago Share Posted 38 minutes ago 2 minutes ago, Mailman said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted 31 minutes ago Share Posted 31 minutes ago Well, I mentioned the snow mixed with sleet possibility a couple days ago in the forecast, especially city and south, and that's exactly what my forecast is now. Lol I wasn't trying to be a downer, but I've just seen this too many times. I just hope it doesn't last long and doesn't cut the totals down too much.Sent from my SM-S931U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted 20 minutes ago Share Posted 20 minutes ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted 20 minutes ago Author Share Posted 20 minutes ago I doubt think that NAM result guarantees anything down the road - but it certainly shows it can overdo it. Still optimistic that city and points north stay clean. Honestly, the only area in the metro area where things might be held down to a significant degree is the 119 cooridoor. But hopefully still >8” in through there before mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted 18 minutes ago Share Posted 18 minutes ago 1 hour ago, colonel717 said: I can never remember a storm where we had a Low that close to us where we didn't flip. I know south of us may, but I would have expected some in AGC. So we will see. Depth of this cold is no doubt a variable we don't usually have on our side. It is not usual that places in the lowlands NW of the ridges do better either, that probably has more to do with track of the low. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted 16 minutes ago Share Posted 16 minutes ago Checking short-term trends, proclivity is more QPF which also comes with higher chance of warm layers. I think I stick with my call from earlier this AM and hope for an overperformance and minimal sleet/ZR. NBM did increase odds of >18" from 4% to 11% at AGC, but shows more pronounced chance of mix during a brief period. I wonder how the NBM accumulation products account for mixes and ratios with inconsistent output across models. Hard to say. Also, if you check NAM runs from yesterday, they didn't have zero snow at Little Rock. The thermal profile was maybe off but it did show like 3-6" of accumulation by noon today on near every run as far as I can tell. No idea what that person is looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted 13 minutes ago Author Share Posted 13 minutes ago 2 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Keep in mind Euro is historically a warmer model that also has called off many a storm. If you blend all the other guidance, this result seems pretty feasible. And it’s not on the super warm train. (Maybe not quite the totals, but the general depiction in our area seems good) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted 12 minutes ago Author Share Posted 12 minutes ago 3 minutes ago, jwilson said: Checking short-term trends, proclivity is more QPF which also comes with higher chance of warm layers. I think I stick with my call from earlier this AM and hope for an overperformance and minimal sleet/ZR. NBM did increase odds of >18" from 4% to 11% at AGC, but shows more pronounced chance of mix during a brief period. I wonder how the NBM accumulation products account for mixes and ratios with inconsistent output across models. Hard to say. Also, if you check NAM runs from yesterday, they didn't have zero snow at Little Rock. The thermal profile was maybe off but it did show like 3-6" of accumulation by noon today on near every run as far as I can tell. No idea what that person is looking at. The were looking at Pivotal 10:1, so could have been other presentations that showed more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted 10 minutes ago Share Posted 10 minutes ago From the met on the other forum. Good to see Euro didn't get warmer from 6z. Tick colder with the thermals near the primary See you guys at 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 8 minutes ago Share Posted 8 minutes ago Not sure of exact total to date at airport, I have a little under 29 inches so far, so to reach climate snowfall we would need about 15 -16 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted just now Share Posted just now Nam vs radar 1 pm guessing NAM is too far north with mix by about 20 miles or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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