Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[colonel717]

[colonel717]

[colonel717]

[colonel717]

[colonel717]

[colonel717]

[colonel717]

[Ahoff]

Looks like everything held overnight.  Good stuff.  The winter storm warning says 10-14”.

[SteelCity87]

As someone who works overnight the hardest part about this storm may be how to not miss the morning/afternoon show lol. 

[southpark]

1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

Looks like everything held overnight.  Good stuff.  The winter storm warning says 10-14”.

A little south correction on some of the models too from the looks of it?

[Burghblizz]

It’s kind of a shame the locals aren’t really part of this experience any more. Maybe it’s because there is less reliance there….but also no one really jumps out as someone that caters to enthusiasts.
For example - KDKA seems like they have a fun met room, but no one is breaking down models and scenarios.

Although Ray P did have a bit of a funny X post. Basically said “my forecast is 6-12”. It’s conservative due to a few wild cards, and will probably go up…but don’t ask me about someone else’s forecast. Ask them!”. Obviously he is likely getting bombarded with questions since weather apps had been flashing big numbers for days. 

[Ahoff]

9 minutes ago, southpark said:

A little south correction on some of the models too from the looks of it?

That’s even better.  Slight South adjusts help with that warm tongue.

[southpark]

11 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

That’s even better.  Slight South adjusts help with that warm tongue.

My thoughts too. I was happy when I woke up to the new runs (thanks Colonel but go to sleep) !

[Rd9108]

Good to see i woke up and the warm tongue isnt licking all the way into northern PA or anything. Ill take a small south adjustment. 

[Rd9108]

I cant post the NBM map but it has Agh county around 13ish inches. 

[Rd9108]

https://imgur.com/a/GBKfZWP

 

 

[Gordo74]

Pleasantly surprised by the overnight models. This thing looks, dare I say, locked in for the track?

 

Westmoreland Co WSW has 12-17 inches in the notice and a glaze of ice possible.

[dj3]

Seems like everything has stayed solid although the euro looks to have cut back on precip totals a hair showing less than 1.00 in liquid. 

[Rd9108]

Won't let me post any pics or gifs anymore but SREFs look slightly better and a little south.

 

Why is my size limit 27kb. I cant post pics

[Burghblizz]

Some good summaries on this page

https://www.weather.gov/media/pbz/DssPacket.pdf

[Gordo74]

32 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Won't let me post any pics or gifs anymore but SREFs look slightly better and a little south.

 

Why is my size limit 27kb. I cant post pics

You probably hit your forum limit, go delete some old posts.

[colonel717]

33 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Won't let me post any pics or gifs anymore but SREFs look slightly better and a little south.

 

Why is my size limit 27kb. I cant post pics

You have to clear some of your attachments under your account 

6z EURO Kuchara

[Rd9108]

 

[Gordo74]

Don’t like that warm tongue, but NWS seems to be discounting it given the surface temp for the hours leading up to it and throughout the event.

[MikeB_01]

29 minutes ago, Gordo74 said:

Don’t like that warm tongue, but NWS seems to be discounting it given the surface temp for the hours leading up to it and throughout the event.

Here are the latest
48-hour ensemble-based probabilities through 7 AM Monday (from
NW to SE / Mercer County to Tucker County):


15":15-55%
12":50-75% (up from 30-70%)
8": 75-90% (up from 60-90%)
6": 85-95% (up from 80-95%)
4": 90-100% (up from 85-99%)

This is from the discussion this morning. They do mention lower ratios  as the warm air intrudes from south to north.  Something to keep in mind, but definitely the reason for that sharp cut off on the 06z euro kuchera

[MikeB_01]

[MikeB_01]

[MikeB_01]

[TimB]

This NAM run is risking lulling me into complacency, but we can’t have that. Looks good tho.

[colonel717]

NAM looks great. Nice jump in moisture/snow totals. Mix goes further south. This gives us cushion for a late north move.