E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[Duca892]

Just now, LVblizzard said:

Snow map is absolutely bonkers. This would exceed 1996 and rival 2016 in the Lehigh Valley.

Holy Mary Mother Of God

[Newman]

A pretty much perfect progression. Capture and stall off the Jersey coast, it occludes so you get snow right down to the LP center

[Duca892]

This is to the point now where if we don't get *anything* I would have a public meltdown. Awesome agreement across virtually all models aside from OP EURO. 

[RedSky]

9 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Snow map is absolutely bonkers. This would exceed 1996 and rival 2016 in the Lehigh Valley.

What color is that in upper Bucks and Montco lol

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, Blue Dream said:

That one sucked here...white rain all day and ending in a burst of heavy snow that night if i remember correctly.

Yeah, the further south you went, the more disappointing the storm was.

1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

February 2010 - a not too shabby snow month.

Amazing how the snow was pretty much all in the first 10 days. The pattern totally flipped in March, and of course, we had record warm temperatures during the entire spring and summer.

[bringmesnow1]

Guaranteed this is gonna happen because I'm traveling and flying home on the 23rd!  

[coastal front]

Man 12z guidance has been Incredible. Let’s hope both euros cap this off and we can begin entering the “holy shit this might be real” phase 

[RedSky]

Next weeks torch is gone like completely vanished 30's all week

 

[RedSky]

One week ago "winters over folks" lol

 

[Newman]

Euro AI is east of 6z but still not bad for much of SE PA at all, widespread 6-12" with more along the Jersey coast. Well within the ensemble envelope at this range.

[Duca892]

can we get the OP EURO to hop on board? 

[Duca892]

21 minutes ago, RedSky said:

One week ago "winters over folks" lol

 

I uncancelled winter last Friday, TBD if I will cancel it again

[LVblizzard]

13 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

can we get the OP EURO to hop on board? 

The answer is no. It misses again.

[MickeyTim6533]

Just now, LVblizzard said:

The answer is no. It misses again.

so the rug pull begins?

[LVblizzard]

5 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

so the rug pull begins?

If you live and die by individual model runs sure.

[ChescoWx]

6 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

so the rug pull begins?

LOL! there can be no rug pull 5 days before an event. It will be lost and gained a couple times this week on the GFS - Canadian and the European.....relax MIckey!

[Lucy Pull]

37 minutes ago, Newman said:

Euro AI is east of 6z but still not bad for much of SE PA at all, widespread 6-12" with more along the Jersey coast. Well within the ensemble envelope at this range.

Interested in what the Euro AI ensembles look like compared to 6z. 

[Duca892]

Loathe the fact the EURO won't get on board and pretty much supports DT's thoughts on this 

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Well if Newman, Heisy, and Ralph are all excited for 12z runs, fuck it I’m in too 
 

I will add, the track of the primary brings me concern on both the GFS and Euro AI, I know they show snow right now but I think it would be hard for us not to change over to sleet if that track is correct. Icon is a great start to 12z though wow. That’s just about a perfect outcome…

My expectations remain tempered. Too many SE leaning members across the ens.

[Lucy Pull]

27 minutes ago, Lucy Pull said:

Interested in what the Euro AI ensembles look like compared to 6z. 

Euro AI ensemble definitely more amplified 6z to 12z based off NYC forum. Pretty good westerly leaning cluster

[RedSky]

Snow depth 9"

 

[MickeyTim6533]

MA forum starting to get concerned. apparently the GEFS suck

 

[Snowguy66]

F DT.  He occasionally gets one right but is often wrong.  

[Snowguy66]

If you say no most of the time you're gonna be correct most of the time

[RedSky]

9 minutes ago, Snowguy66 said:

If you say no most of the time you're gonna be correct most of the time

Still 5 days away which is a guidance eternity these days

 

[Duca892]

12 minutes ago, Snowguy66 said:

If you say no most of the time you're gonna be correct most of the time

Certainly not suggesting he is right (I am FKN moron, what do I know?) but his reasoning of why no storm has been backed up by the EURO at the moment. Just contributing others thoughts is all. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Certainly not suggesting he is right (I am FKN moron, what do I know?) but his reasoning of why no storm has been backed up by the EURO at the moment. Just contributing others thoughts is all. 

GEFS went east. This is the fail scenario that most concers me and fits seasonal pattern. 

[Newman]

This 96-132 hour range is where we've been at on a few occasions this winter, and ever since the beginning of weather tracking itself, that models begin to trend towards less favorable outcomes. I'd say 8 or even 9 times out of 10 when a MECS/HECS is seemingly looking likely, it falls apart in this specific hour range. It's all fun and games until the NAM is in range. There is no such thing as a rug pull at this point, we have so long to go.

One of the more discouraging shifts in NWP in recent years has been the lack of confidence gained from some ensemble guidance. And what I mean is the EPS and GEFS tend to follow the OP or be incredibly underdispersive. The Euro AIFS ENS isn't as bad in that regard, which is encouraging because it came in looking great at 12z and NW of the OP. Despite some gripes with them, the ensembles are truly our best form of guidance at this range if you know how to use them. These pretty snow maps from the deterministic models are fun to look at, but they're purely entertainment at this range. With that in mind, if you blend the EPS, Euro AIFS ENS, GEFS, and CMC Ens... You find that you're basically split 50/50 on a hit or miss. The good news? The EPS has been trending towards the big solutions. And the GEFS is just a bad model, so who cares lol.