Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Wintry Potential

[RogueWaves]

5 minutes ago, snowman33 said:

Climo wise, this time of year you'd expect these systems to cut hard and drop heavier snows across the Great Plains. I can't recall seeing a setup just like this in a long time with the antecedent trough over the Great Lakes.

Welcome to that 70's show

[migratingwx]

A wobble back south with the track on the 00z GFS so totals are a tick higher than the 18z run.

 

[Sciascia]

[migratingwx]

4 minutes ago, Sciascia said:

 

Looks like between about 10pm Saturday and 5am Sunday is when surface temps become marginal from Chicago and SE on this run 

[Geoboy645]

Definitely looks like the potential for a significant hit for the Madison metro is steadily increasing over the last day or so. Could get very interesting here, especially because we are potentially less than three days out from the snow starting to fall on Thanksgiving weekend, with all that entails for travel. Could see headlines and messaging start in earnest tomorrow because of this factor. 

[sbnwx85]

Euro nudged south. We are right back in this ballgame.

[migratingwx]

26 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Euro nudged south. We are right back in this ballgame.

Definitely! And thus, the totals ticked up decently from the 18z run. 

[migratingwx]

Like the GFS, the Euro does have some marginal surface temps from about midnight to 6am Sunday morning from Chicago south and east. Temps aloft, however, looks to remain below 0°C during the event until you get south of Kankakee and into Indiana.

At 925mb, this is the warmest frame. Air above that is solidly below 0°C.

 

 

[migratingwx]

EPS mean also went up since the 18z run.

00z vs 18z below

[Sciascia]

I’ve been sidelined from work since November 6th dealing with a lower back injury. Things are looking good that I’ll be cleared tomorrow to go back to work on 12/1.

So, of course, a potential winter storm may dump a foot right before I go back & my 20 year old Explorer is immediately put to the test.