Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Wintry Potential

[Chicago Storm]

NOW it won’t happen.

[ChiTownSnow]

The kiss of death here

The AI model seems to have a good beat on this one. Pretty consistent with the lead wave

[WestMichigan]

7 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

The kiss of death here

The AI model seems to have a good beat on this one. Pretty consistent with the lead wave

I see the AI model referenced frequently.  Is this publicly available or behind a paywall?

[Malacka11]

2 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

I see the AI model referenced frequently.  Is this publicly available or behind a paywall?

If it's at all helpful, I know that Tropical Tidbits offers some euro AI data with Pivotal Weather having a more extensive selection of publicly available products, including basic snowfall output for the euro AI and maybe its ensemble. 

https://beta.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf_aifs/sn10_acc-imp/conus?run=2025112412&forecastHour=156

[Radtechwxman]

Funny GFS was the one being aggressive with this before and euro not as much now gfs barely has anything and Euro has really uptrended. Definitely keeping my expectations low. At least we got an active pattern ahead. 

[sbnwx85]

IWX favoring the foreign solutions early on.

Friday through Monday...

Some lake effect is likely to linger into Friday, possibly briefly
shifting into NW Indiana for a period until the low level ridge axis
finally passes through Friday night in response to the next area of
low pressure taking shape. While models remain in agreement on a
baroclinic zone establishing itself across the area over the
weekend, timing and ptype issues persist, leading to an uncertain
forecast for those likely travelling home from the holiday weekend.
EC/GEM brings in precipitation during the day Sat with temp profiles
cold enough for all snow through Sat night before shifting east. GFS
delays precip till at least Sunday and maybe not till Monday, which
would suggest more of a mix to possibly all rain. The current
forecast leans towards the faster solution at this time with likely
pops Sat/Sat night. As would be expected this far out, confidence in
finer details is not overly high but worth watching.

[Baum]

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

NOW it won’t happen.

“Potential”is the key word. Your maturing as a forecaster and have learned the 3 key letters of good forecasting CYA. It’s been a pleasure watching you grow through the years.

[Radtechwxman]

GFS still not playing nice on 18z

[Malacka11]

11 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

GFS still not playing nice on 18z

It's definitely at least a slight reversal though, right? I would say (just looking at my blues and greens ofc) that the front end of this threaded event looks a bit stronger and the possible follow-up event is also back. The overall synoptic evolution looks somewhat closer to what other models are showing. Combined with what chi storm was saying that's good enough for me

[Radtechwxman]

10 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

It's definitely at least a slight reversal though, right? I would say (just looking at my blues and greens ofc) that the front end of this threaded event looks a bit stronger and the possible follow-up event is also back. The overall synoptic evolution looks somewhat closer to what other models are showing. Combined with what chi storm was saying that's good enough for me

Yeah follow up storm on edge of waa snows is just more west and north so draws up a big slug of warm air so precip goes all liquid. Euro further south with baroclinic zone and develops low much further south and cuts it more east. Allows for good waa snows than a nice wraparound with low.