December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread

[Matthew70]

Webb is definitely good at what he does.  Only issue is he cliff jumps easily. In his defense many also do on that board. Negativity breeds more negativity.  We all just need to remember how hard it really is to get snow in these parts.  We have to have the temps first.  Which finally we do have those temps really close to tap into. I’ve learned so much from many on this board.  Carver has taught me to be patient & not live off every run of the models.  John is a wealth of historical data.  Jag is the MJO king. Gawx is the statics guru. Holston & Jeff are also great members of this forum. Come spring Jag & Jeff  are severe wx gurus.  The list goes on and on.  
 

[Carvers Gap]

After a super quick skimming of models.  The 0z Euro and 0z GEM are cold beginning sometime around Dec 28-29.  The GFS really does not like the idea of the Jan 2 cold front...but sends one a few days later.  Some of the AIFS models agree w/ the GFS...but for now, I am riding with the coldest models.  Why? We have seen a tendency for models to miss or under-do cold fronts.  I may try to update 500 here in a sec.  That update was pretty much surface focused.

As for snow?  I have to think one or more of these really cold fronts is going to produce winter precip.  It is worth remembering that models often lose systems in the the day 5-7 range...only to find them again, and they restrengthen.  We may have short lead times on fronts which bring snow with cold fronts.

[GBOVolz]

Looks like January 1982 is showing up as an analog at 500mb according to Webb. 
January 1982 was the year it snowed basically every day for a week.
The biggest was 3 inches, but it would snow 1/2 to 1 inch almost every day. We had accumulating snowfall on 9 of 10 days. Even Knoxville recorded 1.5 inches 3 days in a row. 
 
It was capped off by an epic ice storm on January 18th, that the NWS records for some reason, ignore for Knoxville.
It says Knoxville got .21 qpf of ice in the "official" record. 
This is from a KNS article about January 18th/19th 1982. 
 
"That Jan. 18th date was all about ice. The mother of all freezing rains turned the entire area into a skating rink with ice an inch or more thick in most places.
Law enforcement reported more than 150 wrecks. Power failures showed up across the grid. Schools and businesses were shut down. Downtown hotels filled up with ice-locked workers unable to get home. The less fortunate spent the night in their cars unable to do anything but spin their wheels.
The National Weather Service personnel called it the worst ice storm they'd seen in decades.
Stories abounded of people latching up their ice skates for a trip to the store or literally crawling from their cars to get back into their homes and offices."
 
Temperatures in the -10s here just before that ice storm. 

I remember that Ice storm in 82. What I remember about it is me and my dad had to go get my grandmother at her work, which was downtown at the city County building. I remember sitting on the overpass where 275 goes east on 40 and we sat there for what seemed like forever. However, we got my GM, got her home and we got home safe. Maybe the weather conditions got worse after we got home but at that time, only bridges and overpasses were iced up.


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