December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread

[Matthew70]

Webb is definitely good at what he does.  Only issue is he cliff jumps easily. In his defense many also do on that board. Negativity breeds more negativity.  We all just need to remember how hard it really is to get snow in these parts.  We have to have the temps first.  Which finally we do have those temps really close to tap into. I’ve learned so much from many on this board.  Carver has taught me to be patient & not live off every run of the models.  John is a wealth of historical data.  Jag is the MJO king. Gawx is the statics guru. Holston & Jeff are also great members of this forum. Come spring Jag & Jeff  are severe wx gurus.  The list goes on and on.  
 

[Carvers Gap]

After a super quick skimming of models.  The 0z Euro and 0z GEM are cold beginning sometime around Dec 28-29.  The GFS really does not like the idea of the Jan 2 cold front...but sends one a few days later.  Some of the AIFS models agree w/ the GFS...but for now, I am riding with the coldest models.  Why? We have seen a tendency for models to miss or under-do cold fronts.  I may try to update 500 here in a sec.  That update was pretty much surface focused.

As for snow?  I have to think one or more of these really cold fronts is going to produce winter precip.  It is worth remembering that models often lose systems in the the day 5-7 range...only to find them again, and they restrengthen.  We may have short lead times on fronts which bring snow with cold fronts.