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Nice write ray.

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Plowable Snowfall Still Favored Sunday

Devin In Details As Considerable Model Uncertainty Remains

Rainfall Likely Tonight

Regardless of the ample supply of cold throughout the first third of the month of December, the storm system approaching the region today still looks to fall as primarily light rainfall for the majority of the region.

 

 

The rising temperatures throughout the overnight period last night were the first indication of this outcome, as an innocuous looking wave over the Ohio River Valley manages to phase in enough with a lobe of the PV to amplify and track through southern Canada, which has already turned the winds out of the southwest across much of the northeastern CONUS.

 

Although some light snowfall is possible across the higher terrain of the Berkshires, this particular system will prove more met than white. This is a very easy forecast since the system is traveling so far to the north, however, when that is not the case, modeling will be very sensitive to any subtle change with respect to phasing attempts is an extremely fast flow. This will be on full display with regard t the weekend forecast. 

Complicated Weekend Scenario Unfolding

As of this morning, there were two more distinct parcels of energy over the arctic that are modeled to be on a collision course over the Canadian prairies late this week.

 

The system over the Arctic Ocean, and the one entering Alaska are forecast to rapidly funnel SSE in the flow between the PV and west coast ridge, before ultimately coalescing in the vicinity of Alberta, Canada on overnight on Friday.

 

 

The system will then careen around the southern side of the PV on Saturday, at which point guidance diverges concerning the precise nature of this crucial interaction. 

 

 

The European cluster of ensembles favors a scenario in which there remains enough space between the PV lobe and the developing system to allow to amplify sufficiently as to eventually impact much of the region with a plowable snowfall on Sunday. The GFS camp, on the other hand, keeps the PV in close enough proximity to greatly impede the development of the wave to the south by largely shearing it apart, which results in little if any snowfall across the area.

 

The version of the EURO guidance that is derived from Artificial intelligence (AI) is even more aggressive than the traditional model, and implies a warning event of 6" or greater throughout at least a portion of the area.

 

The Eastern Mass Weather hedge remains in favor of a plowable snowfall for at least a portion of the forecast area on Sunday given previously discussed analog support and teleconnector convergence, in addition to robust AI support in addition to a death of high latitude blocking at present to pin the PV slightly further to the south. First Call is likely either Thursday or Friday.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Festive Light Snowfall Likely Sunday

Plowable Possible South & East

Compromise Solution This Weekend

On Wednesday, Eastern Mass Weather discussed subtle differences between the GFS and European suites, respectively, with the latter favoring a plowable snowfall for  large portion of the region and the former merely flurries. 

 

 

The preference was for the European blend, which entailed a significant snowfall for most of the region; however, as is often the case, it appears as though a compromise will ultimately be in order.

 

Synoptic Overview

It appears as though a rather modest parcel of energy congealing over the prairies of Alberta, Canada later today and tonight will race east-southeastward and begin interacting with a lobe of the polar vortex (PV).

 

This particular randevu will be a complex, and somewhat noncommittal one, at least initially. The two pockets of energy will initially flirt with one another in that they will reman in close enough proximity to hunter the amplification of the smaller system.

 

 

However, any phasing will occur at a rather lethargic pace owed to the shallow amplitude of the western ridge, which will lack the depth to trigger a more aggressive and committed union.

 

The end result will be a light snowfall, which a some moderate totals likely well to the south, where plowable amounts remain possible. 

 

 

Anticipated Storm Evolution

Light snowfall will begin to break out after midnight Saturday night, during the predawn hours on Sunday from south-southwest to north-northeast.

 

 

The "peak" of the storm will occur in the vicinity of dawn on Sunday, when low pressure will begin to slowly strengthen south of Long Island, and snowfall becomes more steady and even moderate at times the southern and southeastern third off the area.

 

 

Snowfall will begin lighten up later in the morning and during the midday hour, but just as that happens, the energy from the polar vortex lobe to the west will begin to drop in to initiate phasing as the system exits.

 

 

This will likely serve to protract light snow across especially the eastern half of the area through the afternoon, which will entail the potential for very light additional accumulations before ending during the early evening hours.

 

 

Stay tuned for important updates on the holiday period to be issued early next week-

FIRST & FINAL CALL