Event Discussion-OBS uncertain tracking thread for possible moderate impact event 8A Thu-8A Fri 10/30-31. Mainly 1-3" rains, G 45-55 MPH-mainly coast, and high prob of at least minor coastal flooding - Thursday afternoon high tide cycle.

[JerseyWx]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Summary message: I could not go back to review the OHP between 16z-20z/30 for the unfortunate fatalities related to only very short fuse prediction of 1" in 15 minutes over NYC... results as cellar fatalities, again, as in prior city FF.  That's the part that didnt work out in the thread.

Otherwise see graphics below

1) CPC D8 1"+ heavy rain forecast (MDT risk)

2) CoCoRaHs region red and orange dot verification of the main axis of heavy rain (see legend)

3) NYC subforum rainfall

4) EPS 06z/31 5H... note negative tilt lobe to NJ

5) EPS 18z/30 12 hr 170M HFC over NJ...  large 12 hr HFC's need to be contended with as event concerns...given adequate moisture.

You can use these graphics to go back to p1 of this thread to verify the Sunday 10/26 post.  Modeling was helpful for sure.  GEFS rainfall and max gusts were terrible as compared to the EPS and EPSAI modeling. 

I'm near those red dots in northern Morris county.  3 inches+ around here.  Very heavy downpours at times.  Needed some rain, and we got it.

[psv88]

2.45” total 

[jm1220]

5 hours ago, Intensewind002 said:

We did get some minor tidal flooding along the roads bordering the Great South Bay, Went to Babylon dock and the water was maybe a few inches above the docks themselves at high tide. Seeing the boats at a higher level than you are is always a weird sight regardless of how bad the flooding is

Neap tides with the half moon helped keep the water levels down a little but strong easterly winds piling in water will always be a problem here. 

[NorthShoreWx]

14 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Still raining moderately here.  Up to 2.57" on my automated gage, but it usually runs slightly high.  I'll trust the 4" gage when I check it in the morning.  We had just about an inch after the remnants of the initial heavy batch that flooded Brooklyn passed through, but have been making up for lost time since 

My final pseudo-official total here was 2.28".  The Ambient Weather WS-2902 measured 2.68".  It's often a little high, but usually not by this much.

[wdrag]

42 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

My final pseudo-official total here was 2.28".  The Ambient Weather WS-2902 measured 2.68".  It's often a little high, but usually not by this much.

Intensity skews the Ambient too high...  Light rain usually very close but when it gets intense, the automated gage runs too high. At least it rained 

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

My final pseudo-official total here was 2.28".  The Ambient Weather WS-2902 measured 2.68".  It's often a little high, but usually not by this much.

Mine did that as well.  Cocorahs gauge was 1.86 and ambient was 2.08.  Like Walt said, intense rains sometimes skew it high.  I've had the 2902 for 5 years now