October 2025 Discussion and Obs

[rclab]

1 hour ago, Roger Smith said:

Well there's a daily posting on this subforum of historical weather events all over the country (by Sacrus) and quite often I see posters discussing those, so I don't think the above is true but anyway I did post some of the info on the mountain west thread so I will shuffle on back there and shoot grizzlies off my front porch.

I find the height determination in mountain state snowfall forecasts, very interesting. As for your front porch entertainment ,,,,,, at least your grizzlies don’t shoot back. Stay well, as always .…

[LAVistaNY]

As long as we’re posting stuff that nobody cares about I’ll go- I live in Vista, NY in the point of Westchester that juts into CT. If you’ve ever been to Vista you might wonder why the name if there is no view in Vista?

This area was almost completely deforested in the 1700 and 1800’s for dairy farms for NYC and the view to Long Island and the Sound was said to be spectacular. People would travel to take in the view and picnic hence the name. Around the turn of the 20th century the dairy farms were gone and the trees grew. So why post this on a weather board? Our trees are all the same age 100+ years and it doesn’t take much to cause havoc -multi day power outages: 4 days Irene,  6 snowtober, and 9 for Sandy! So away from the coast it still matters.

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, LAVistaNY said:

As long as we’re posting stuff that nobody cares about I’ll go- I live in Vista, NY in the point of Westchester that juts into CT. If you’ve ever been to Vista you might wonder why the name if there is no view in Vista?

This area was almost completely deforested in the 1700 and 1800’s for dairy farms for NYC and the view to Long Island and the Sound was said to be spectacular. People would travel to take in the view and picnic hence the name. Around the turn of the 20th century the dairy farms were gone and the trees grew. So why post this on a weather board? Our trees are all the same age 100+ years and it doesn’t take much to cause havoc -multi day power outages: 4 days Irene,  6 snowtober, and 9 for Sandy! So away from the coast it still matters.

The one small piece of good news regarding all the tree damage starting with the March 2010 nor’easter is that many of the weaker trees are no longer around. Residents and power companies have been very proactive removing older damaged trees rather than waiting for another storm to blow them down. The landscape in a place like Long Beach is completely different due to them losing all their sycamores with the salt water damage in Sandy. 

[SACRUS]

 

55 / 53 with 0.72 in the bucket lots of mist and drizzle - sheet drizzle.  Ugliness tames down later tonight and drying out Tue and perhaps some sun by Tue afternoon or sunset.  Drier week and perhaps a quick 70 on Wed before a 48 hour cooler airmass comes down mainly Wed evning - Fri AM.  Perhaps some frosts inland.  Warmer by Friday afternoon and this coming weekend looks nice with Sunday back to the 70s for most.  A bit back and forth starting on the 20th with overall warmer outweighing the cooler beyond.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 89 (1954)
NYC: 87 (1954)
LGA: 86 (1995)
JFK: 79 (1995)


Lows;

EWR: 34 (2012)
NYC: 34 (1875)
LGA:  39 (1988)
JFK: 37 (2012)

Historical:

 

1820: Snowstorm at Ft. Snelling, MN dumps 11 inches. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

 

1846 - A great hurricane tracked across Cuba, Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, Virginia and Pennsylvania. The hurricane inflicted major damage along its entire path, which was similar to the path of Hurricane Hazel 108 years later. The hurricane caused great damage at Key West FL, and at Philadelphia PA it was the most destructive storm in thirty years. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1876: New York City recorded its earliest 32° reading with a half inch of snow. Snow fell from Virginia to New England with 3.5 inches reported at Fall River, MA. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1893: At Richmond, winds became a "perfect gale" as rain fell in torrents. Homes were partially unroofed, and trees fell in the capital squares. Between Richmond and Danville, a passenger train struck a fallen tree while a freight train struck another tree. Many lines fell across Petersburg. Dwellings in town rocked to the wind gusts. Roanoke watched as their river rose to levels unseen since 1853. Washouts occurred along the Norfolk & Western railroad, delaying traffic from twelve to fourteen hours. The town of Elliston was submerged by the Roanoke river, sweeping away houses. Alexandria saw its wharves crumble before the high waters ($25,000). The James river eclipsed the level attained during the Johnstown Flood of 1889 by twelve inches. Bladensburg saw winds level fences and partially unroof homes. In Washington, DC, the Calvary Baptist church's side wall blew down ($3000). Associate justice of the Supreme Court Henry B. Brown was seriously injured when a plate glass window shattered at his new home at the northwest corner of 16th street and Riggs at 7:30 p.m.. Trees and their limbs were strewn throughout the city. Rainfall began in the morning and increased throughout the afternoon. Sewers were flooded by this downpour. By 6 p.m., gale force winds swept through the Federal City. Damage to police and fire wires was "greater than ever before been experienced. " Waters on the Potomac rose six feet above the high tide, which was three feet below the high water mark. The Anacostia bridge became submerged. (Ref. for Fall Storm of Oct. 13th - 14th)

1960: Large hail nearly covered the ground across a large part of central Jackson County, in southwest Oklahoma. Hail up to the size of baseballs, with some chunks shaped like saucers, destroyed the roofs of most businesses and homes in Olustee. Large hail also pounded the Stillwater area the same evening. Hail up to 4 inches in diameter caused damage in and around the city, including damage to roofs, windows, and copper trim at Oklahoma State University. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)

1982: Denver experiences a wet, early-season snow. Up to 6 inches fell in the Foothills. Extensive power outages resulted as tree limbs broke under the weight of the snow. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1983: Severe weather in Falls Church, VA, produced 2-3 tornadoes and caused $1 million in damages.

1986 - Four tornadoes struck southeastern Virginia late in the night causing three million dollars damage. Tornadoes at Falls Church VA caused a million dollars damage. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders)

1987 - Fifteen cities in the eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Record lows included 34 degrees at Meridian MS, 28 degrees at Paducah KY, and 26 degrees at Beckley WV. Another surge of arctic air entered the north central U.S. bringing snow to parts of Wyoming and Colorado. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - A total of forty-three cities in the eastern U.S. and the Upper Midwest reported record low temperatures for the date, including Elkins WV and Marquette MI where the mercury dipped to 18 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Sixteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 80s and low 90s from the Southern and Central Plains to the Southern and Middle Atlantic Coast. Evansville IND and North Platte NE reported record highs of 91 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

 

1990: The combined remnants of Tropical Storms Klaus and Marco dumped extremely heavy rainfall over New England. More than 6 inches of rain fell in parts of Connecticut. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1994: A slow moving low pressure area dumped excessive rains over coastal Georgia. Hunter was drenched with 14.26 inches in 24 hours while Savannah checked in with 8.80 inches. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

2006: On the 12th and 13th in a historic lake effect snow left 22.6 inches of snow in Buffalo, New York. With trees in full leaf much damage occurred; estimates of $200 million dollars damage. Thunder occurred for approximately 12 hours with the storm, and 400,000 customers without power some for two weeks. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2007 Accord Publishing, USA) (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2012 Accord Pub. 2011, USA)

2011: Central and eastern Virginia hit by three tornadoes today. The tornado that hit New Kent County on Thursday carried winds estimated at 95 mph, the National Weather Service said today. The twister struck about 4:50 p.m. in the Woodhaven Shores neighborhood in southwestern New Kent, officials said. Its path was about 200 yards wide. The tornado was an EF1 -- the next-to-weakest rating for tornadoes. Weather service officials judged the tornado's characteristics by visiting the site today. Earlier today, the weather service said three confirmed tornadoes struck Virginia Thursday the 13th of October. The tornadoes hit western Louisa County between 3:30 and 3:45 p.m., western New Kent County just before 5 p.m. and southeastern Prince William County about 5:30 p.m. (Ref. Richmond Times Published by Rex Springston on October 14, 2011)  A late season tornado event occurred on October 13th.
An EF1 tornado went across a portion of New Kent County and another did EF1 damage in Louisa County at Sylvania Plantation, a historic home built in 1746. (Ref.NWS Late Season Tornadoes Louisa County and New Kent County)

[SACRUS]

 

 

SST Annomaly s

 

[SACRUS]

 

Dual swirls

 

Southeast off Carolinas and southeast of South New Jersey

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 89 (1954)
NYC: 87 (1954)
LGA: 86 (1995)
JFK: 79 (1995)


Lows;

EWR: 34 (2012)
NYC: 34 (1875)
LGA:  39 (1988)
JFK: 37 (2012)

Historical:

 

1820: Snowstorm at Ft. Snelling, MN dumps 11 inches. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

 

1846 - A great hurricane tracked across Cuba, Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, Virginia and Pennsylvania. The hurricane inflicted major damage along its entire path, which was similar to the path of Hurricane Hazel 108 years later. The hurricane caused great damage at Key West FL, and at Philadelphia PA it was the most destructive storm in thirty years. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1876: New York City recorded its earliest 32° reading with a half inch of snow. Snow fell from Virginia to New England with 3.5 inches reported at Fall River, MA. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1893: At Richmond, winds became a "perfect gale" as rain fell in torrents. Homes were partially unroofed, and trees fell in the capital squares. Between Richmond and Danville, a passenger train struck a fallen tree while a freight train struck another tree. Many lines fell across Petersburg. Dwellings in town rocked to the wind gusts. Roanoke watched as their river rose to levels unseen since 1853. Washouts occurred along the Norfolk & Western railroad, delaying traffic from twelve to fourteen hours. The town of Elliston was submerged by the Roanoke river, sweeping away houses. Alexandria saw its wharves crumble before the high waters ($25,000). The James river eclipsed the level attained during the Johnstown Flood of 1889 by twelve inches. Bladensburg saw winds level fences and partially unroof homes. In Washington, DC, the Calvary Baptist church's side wall blew down ($3000). Associate justice of the Supreme Court Henry B. Brown was seriously injured when a plate glass window shattered at his new home at the northwest corner of 16th street and Riggs at 7:30 p.m.. Trees and their limbs were strewn throughout the city. Rainfall began in the morning and increased throughout the afternoon. Sewers were flooded by this downpour. By 6 p.m., gale force winds swept through the Federal City. Damage to police and fire wires was "greater than ever before been experienced. " Waters on the Potomac rose six feet above the high tide, which was three feet below the high water mark. The Anacostia bridge became submerged. (Ref. for Fall Storm of Oct. 13th - 14th)

1960: Large hail nearly covered the ground across a large part of central Jackson County, in southwest Oklahoma. Hail up to the size of baseballs, with some chunks shaped like saucers, destroyed the roofs of most businesses and homes in Olustee. Large hail also pounded the Stillwater area the same evening. Hail up to 4 inches in diameter caused damage in and around the city, including damage to roofs, windows, and copper trim at Oklahoma State University. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)

1982: Denver experiences a wet, early-season snow. Up to 6 inches fell in the Foothills. Extensive power outages resulted as tree limbs broke under the weight of the snow. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1983: Severe weather in Falls Church, VA, produced 2-3 tornadoes and caused $1 million in damages.

1986 - Four tornadoes struck southeastern Virginia late in the night causing three million dollars damage. Tornadoes at Falls Church VA caused a million dollars damage. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders)

1987 - Fifteen cities in the eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Record lows included 34 degrees at Meridian MS, 28 degrees at Paducah KY, and 26 degrees at Beckley WV. Another surge of arctic air entered the north central U.S. bringing snow to parts of Wyoming and Colorado. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - A total of forty-three cities in the eastern U.S. and the Upper Midwest reported record low temperatures for the date, including Elkins WV and Marquette MI where the mercury dipped to 18 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Sixteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 80s and low 90s from the Southern and Central Plains to the Southern and Middle Atlantic Coast. Evansville IND and North Platte NE reported record highs of 91 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

 

1990: The combined remnants of Tropical Storms Klaus and Marco dumped extremely heavy rainfall over New England. More than 6 inches of rain fell in parts of Connecticut. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1994: A slow moving low pressure area dumped excessive rains over coastal Georgia. Hunter was drenched with 14.26 inches in 24 hours while Savannah checked in with 8.80 inches. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

2006: On the 12th and 13th in a historic lake effect snow left 22.6 inches of snow in Buffalo, New York. With trees in full leaf much damage occurred; estimates of $200 million dollars damage. Thunder occurred for approximately 12 hours with the storm, and 400,000 customers without power some for two weeks. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2007 Accord Publishing, USA) (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2012 Accord Pub. 2011, USA)

2011: Central and eastern Virginia hit by three tornadoes today. The tornado that hit New Kent County on Thursday carried winds estimated at 95 mph, the National Weather Service said today. The twister struck about 4:50 p.m. in the Woodhaven Shores neighborhood in southwestern New Kent, officials said. Its path was about 200 yards wide. The tornado was an EF1 -- the next-to-weakest rating for tornadoes. Weather service officials judged the tornado's characteristics by visiting the site today. Earlier today, the weather service said three confirmed tornadoes struck Virginia Thursday the 13th of October. The tornadoes hit western Louisa County between 3:30 and 3:45 p.m., western New Kent County just before 5 p.m. and southeastern Prince William County about 5:30 p.m. (Ref. Richmond Times Published by Rex Springston on October 14, 2011)  A late season tornado event occurred on October 13th.
An EF1 tornado went across a portion of New Kent County and another did EF1 damage in Louisa County at Sylvania Plantation, a historic home built in 1746. (Ref.NWS Late Season Tornadoes Louisa County and New Kent County)

Lows;

EWR: 34 (2012)
NYC: 34 (1875)
LGA:  39 (1988)
JFK: 37 (2012)

 

wow October 2012 was really cold even before Sandy.

 

1846 - A great hurricane tracked across Cuba, Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, Virginia and Pennsylvania. The hurricane inflicted major damage along its entire path, which was similar to the path of Hurricane Hazel 108 years later. The hurricane caused great damage at Key West FL, and at Philadelphia PA it was the most destructive storm in thirty years. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1876: New York City recorded its earliest 32° reading with a half inch of snow. Snow fell from Virginia to New England with 3.5 inches reported at Fall River, MA. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

 

1846's great hurricane was a Cat 5.... I wonder how strong it was in PA? Is there a track map for this storm, Tony?

 

1876 must have been an epic event, that record has held for 150 years lol.

 

[Roger Smith]

LB, from what I can ascertain from storm reports and the NOAA weather map archive project, the track was across the Delmarva Peninsula and far southern NJ towards central Long Island and then Rhode Island to near Boston, but as the storm underwent extratropical transition it looks to have been elongating rapidly with a new center forming near Nantucket on Oct 14th. Probably NYC was hit with a period of strong E-NE winds, then moderate westerlies set in when the trough axis passed through CT. It was probably never much over 55 F during the event in NYC, I would guess it was 70F in eastern Long Island briefly. The archive maps lack intensity but are probably better for track as they would have numerous ship reports available. 

[donsutherland1]

The nor'easter that brought heavy rainfall to the coastal plain is now poised to pull away. Some additional showers, periods of rain, and drizzle are likely overnight. 

Following the nor'easter, tomorrow will be mostly cloudy and mild. Clouds could break from west to east during the afternoon. Temperatures will top out in the lower 60s in many parts of the region. Wednesday will be partly sunny and milder with highs reaching the middle 60s.

However, a fresh shot of cool air will move into the region late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Following the frontal passage, parts of the region could experience their coolest temperatures so far this fall. Dry conditions will likely prevail through the remainder of the week.

In the 18 past years where Central Park saw at least two 80° or above highs and Newark saw at least two 84° or above highs during the first week of October, the temperature returned to 70° or above on at least one day during the second half of October in 17 (94.4%) of those cases. For all other cases, 84.1% saw at least one such high temperature during the second half of October. Therefore, the sharp cool spell very likely won't mean that New York City has seen its last 70° or above high temperature. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around October 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter.

The SOI was +7.15 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.345 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.8° (0.9° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.