Tropical Depression Nine

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Yeah no models had this slow motion early on which is why they all showed the ULL pulling it onshore Monday night. At this point its so slow hunberto might be north east of it by the time it gets to the northern Bahamas amd yank it due east from there. 

Pretty bad performance by the gfs and euro on this one

And their ensembles. At relatively short range. 

[cardinalland]

5 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Yeah no models had this slow motion early on which is why they all showed the ULL pulling it onshore Monday night. At this point its so slow hunberto might be north east of it by the time it gets to the northern Bahamas amd yank it due east from there. 

Pretty bad performance by the gfs and euro on this one

to be fair fujiwara is a pretty hard dynamic to work out, this setup was never gonna be an easy one

[shaggy]

11 minutes ago, cardinalland said:

to be fair fujiwara is a pretty hard dynamic to work out, this setup was never gonna be an easy one

I agree but the short term motion prior to any Fujiwara was also very wrong on those models. Nome of them has this thing stalled out in the southern Bahamas and near Cuba for 2-3 days straight

[Coach McGuirk]

Wouldn't a slower storm interact with the high pressure system over NE Canada moving in and steer it west like Sandy?

[WxWatcher007]

Sure ain’t something you see everyday  

[Coach McGuirk]

00z GFS is well out to sea.  Oh well?

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET: stays OTS like every other UKMET and every Icon has done.

 Reminder: Coincidentally or not, the UKMET and Icon were the two best models by far for Ian by being the furthest to the right/SE coming into SW FL. 
 

0Z UKMET

ROPICAL DEPRESSION 09L        ANALYSED POSITION : 22.0N  76.4W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092025

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 28.09.2025    0  22.0N  76.4W     1005            31
    1200UTC 28.09.2025   12  23.2N  76.9W     1003            35
    0000UTC 29.09.2025   24  24.6N  76.7W     1000            32
    1200UTC 29.09.2025   36  26.7N  77.1W      998            43
    0000UTC 30.09.2025   48  28.5N  77.4W      994            42
    1200UTC 30.09.2025   60  29.2N  77.3W      991            38
    0000UTC 01.10.2025   72  29.0N  75.9W      989            41
    1200UTC 01.10.2025   84  29.7N  73.4W      987            47
    0000UTC 02.10.2025   96  30.3N  69.6W      985            57
    1200UTC 02.10.2025  108  31.6N  64.5W      984            54
    0000UTC 03.10.2025  120  33.5N  59.8W      986            67
    1200UTC 03.10.2025  132  34.8N  57.0W      992            48
    0000UTC 04.10.2025  144  36.3N  56.0W      995            43
    1200UTC 04.10.2025  156  37.7N  54.4W      999            39
    0000UTC 05.10.2025  168  41.4N  49.5W      999            41

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

0Z UKMET: stays OTS like every other UKMET and every Icon has done.

 Reminder: Coincidentally or not, the UKMET and Icon were the two best models by far for Ian by being the furthest to the right/SE coming into SW FL. 
 

0Z UKMET

ROPICAL DEPRESSION 09L        ANALYSED POSITION : 22.0N  76.4W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092025

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 28.09.2025    0  22.0N  76.4W     1005            31
    1200UTC 28.09.2025   12  23.2N  76.9W     1003            35
    0000UTC 29.09.2025   24  24.6N  76.7W     1000            32
    1200UTC 29.09.2025   36  26.7N  77.1W      998            43
    0000UTC 30.09.2025   48  28.5N  77.4W      994            42
    1200UTC 30.09.2025   60  29.2N  77.3W      991            38
    0000UTC 01.10.2025   72  29.0N  75.9W      989            41
    1200UTC 01.10.2025   84  29.7N  73.4W      987            47
    0000UTC 02.10.2025   96  30.3N  69.6W      985            57
    1200UTC 02.10.2025  108  31.6N  64.5W      984            54
    0000UTC 03.10.2025  120  33.5N  59.8W      986            67
    1200UTC 03.10.2025  132  34.8N  57.0W      992            48
    0000UTC 04.10.2025  144  36.3N  56.0W      995            43
    1200UTC 04.10.2025  156  37.7N  54.4W      999            39
    0000UTC 05.10.2025  168  41.4N  49.5W      999            41

Euro pretty much on an island