GaWx Posted September 4, 2025 Share Posted September 4, 2025 This thread is for forecast discussions and speculation regarding the upcoming winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Occluded Front Posted September 14, 2025 Share Posted September 14, 2025 I pray it will at least be interesting and throw down a few surprises. Lots of different early casting around the world right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted October 14, 2025 Share Posted October 14, 2025 From World Climate Service (@WorldClimateSvc on X): 4 of the past 5 winters have seen La Niña, and 4 very different outcomes have occurred: - 2020-21: cold south - 2021-22: cold north - 2022-23: cold west - 2024-25: cold east 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted October 16, 2025 Share Posted October 16, 2025 NOAA has spoken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted October 16, 2025 Share Posted October 16, 2025 Some thoughts: - Extreme swings this winter. Moreso than usual. I think a cold tap will exist in the Hudson Bay, which fits the enso and overall long range pattern. With that being said, I think the SER will have its moments of rage as well. Last year had quite a bit of temperature stability for most in the eastern conus, but I think we see a lot of days that get into the 60s, followed by 2-3 days in the 30s/40s in quick succession. - I.e. Blocking over the Atlantic doesn’t appear to be favored, so that’s why I think my last sentence will be true. - As always, this will be a critical matchmaking process with moisture and cold. Last year, we were spoiled with a favorable upper level pattern quite a bit, which made the matchmaking odds better, but some still weren’t able to cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted October 16, 2025 Share Posted October 16, 2025 Warm and dry similar to this month's pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted October 17, 2025 Share Posted October 17, 2025 From DT: Folks this is an incredibly bad forecast in every possible way. The premise is that La Nina is going to continue throughout the winter even though ALL of the data clearly shows La Nina ending by December (this includes the climate models which are run by the NOAA/ NWS/ CPC) So the premise of this winter forecast -- that la Nina is going to last through the winter is just absurd. Consider their forecast from last winter VS the actual temperature anomalies for December January February 2024-25. That NOAA NWS forecast was heavily based on the weak La Nina lasting through the entire winter -- which it did. For this coming winter as I mentioned above... the data is overwhelming that the La Nina will be over by January 1-- possibly by the middle of December. Yet the NOAA/ NWS winter forecast 2025-26 is almost identical to the busted one from last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted October 18, 2025 Share Posted October 18, 2025 CFS January Monthly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted October 22, 2025 Share Posted October 22, 2025 BAM Weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted October 22, 2025 Share Posted October 22, 2025 26 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: BAM Weather I can work with that! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted October 22, 2025 Share Posted October 22, 2025 BAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted October 23, 2025 Share Posted October 23, 2025 Lately if we score in a Nina it's in December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted October 30, 2025 Share Posted October 30, 2025 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 1, 2025 Share Posted November 1, 2025 CanSIPS December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 3, 2025 Share Posted November 3, 2025 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 5, 2025 Share Posted November 5, 2025 Latest ECMWF Seasonal update detects a -PNA -EPO -NAO December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 7, 2025 Share Posted November 7, 2025 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orange county Posted November 7, 2025 Share Posted November 7, 2025 This map above is hilarious .But Maybe Just Maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 7, 2025 Share Posted November 7, 2025 52 minutes ago, Orange county said: This map above is hilarious .But Maybe Just Maybe That much snow in south Texas would be historic, but we saw what happened last winter.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 8, 2025 Share Posted November 8, 2025 On 11/5/2025 at 1:17 PM, WinstonSalemArlington said: Latest ECMWF Seasonal update detects a -PNA -EPO -NAO December. Shade's of some 1960's Winter's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 8, 2025 Share Posted November 8, 2025 2 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: Shade's of some 1960's Winter's. The negative PNA makes it like winning a 65 mustang but with an electric engine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 8, 2025 Share Posted November 8, 2025 PreChristmas 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 8, 2025 Share Posted November 8, 2025 43 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: PreChristmas Now that would git'r done ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 9, 2025 Share Posted November 9, 2025 On 11/8/2025 at 11:08 AM, WinstonSalemArlington said: PreChristmas That map is perfect! .... Please let it be so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 10, 2025 Share Posted November 10, 2025 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 11, 2025 Share Posted November 11, 2025 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 11, 2025 Share Posted November 11, 2025 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 11, 2025 Share Posted November 11, 2025 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 12, 2025 Author Share Posted November 12, 2025 1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Thanks for posting this. I wonder if Alan’s cold Jan is largely because of a prog for a very early SSWE followed by a lagged cold effect in Jan. I’d be quite content with this. Not having a warmer than normal La Niña winter in the majority of the SE including another cold Jan would be a victory! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 12, 2025 Share Posted November 12, 2025 CFS Monthlies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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