Looking ahead to winter 2025-6

[GaWx]

 This thread is for forecast discussions and speculation regarding the upcoming winter.

[Occluded Front]

I pray it will at least be interesting and throw down a few surprises. Lots of different early casting around the world right now. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

From World Climate Service (@WorldClimateSvc on X):
4 of the past 5 winters have seen La Niña, and 4 very different outcomes have occurred:
     - 2020-21:  cold south
     - 2021-22:  cold north
     - 2022-23:  cold west
     - 2024-25:  cold east

[wncsnow]

NOAA has spoken 

[BooneWX]

Some thoughts:

- Extreme swings this winter. Moreso than usual. I think a cold tap will exist in the Hudson Bay, which fits the enso and overall long range pattern. With that being said, I think the SER will have its moments of rage as well. Last year had quite a bit of temperature stability for most in the eastern conus, but I think we see a lot of days that get into the 60s, followed by 2-3 days in the 30s/40s in quick succession. 
 

- I.e. Blocking over the Atlantic doesn’t appear to be favored, so that’s why I think my last sentence will be true. 
 

- As always, this will be a critical matchmaking process with moisture and cold. Last year, we were spoiled with a favorable upper level pattern quite a bit, which made the matchmaking odds better, but some still weren’t able to cash in. 
 

[wncsnow]

Warm and dry similar to this month's pattern 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

From DT: Folks this is an incredibly bad forecast in every possible way. The premise is that La Nina is going to continue throughout the winter even though ALL of the data clearly shows La Nina ending by December (this includes the climate models which are run by the NOAA/ NWS/ CPC) So the premise of this winter forecast -- that la Nina is going to last through the winter is just absurd.
Consider their forecast from last winter VS the actual temperature anomalies for December January February 2024-25. That NOAA NWS forecast was heavily based on the weak La Nina lasting through the entire winter -- which it did.
For this coming winter as I mentioned above... the data is overwhelming that the La Nina will be over by January 1-- possibly by the middle of December. Yet the NOAA/ NWS winter forecast 2025-26 is almost identical to the busted one from last year.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

CFS January Monthly