Looking ahead to winter 2025-6

[GaWx]

 This thread is for forecast discussions and speculation regarding the upcoming winter.

[Occluded Front]

I pray it will at least be interesting and throw down a few surprises. Lots of different early casting around the world right now. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

From World Climate Service (@WorldClimateSvc on X):
4 of the past 5 winters have seen La Niña, and 4 very different outcomes have occurred:
     - 2020-21:  cold south
     - 2021-22:  cold north
     - 2022-23:  cold west
     - 2024-25:  cold east

[wncsnow]

NOAA has spoken 

[BooneWX]

Some thoughts:

- Extreme swings this winter. Moreso than usual. I think a cold tap will exist in the Hudson Bay, which fits the enso and overall long range pattern. With that being said, I think the SER will have its moments of rage as well. Last year had quite a bit of temperature stability for most in the eastern conus, but I think we see a lot of days that get into the 60s, followed by 2-3 days in the 30s/40s in quick succession. 
 

- I.e. Blocking over the Atlantic doesn’t appear to be favored, so that’s why I think my last sentence will be true. 
 

- As always, this will be a critical matchmaking process with moisture and cold. Last year, we were spoiled with a favorable upper level pattern quite a bit, which made the matchmaking odds better, but some still weren’t able to cash in. 
 

[wncsnow]

Warm and dry similar to this month's pattern