dwagner88 Posted Wednesday at 05:36 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:36 PM I drove up to about 3000' on the Cherohala Skyway on summer tires in my GTI during that 2014 snow. I still have a bunch of pictures of it somewhere. I couldn't comfortably drive any further towards the NC line, but I think there was 3-4" on the ground at that elevation and it was still coming down. Super windy and cold too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Wednesday at 06:57 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 06:57 PM The 12z Euro is leading the way on this 9-10th system. I can't say that gives me a lot of comfort as I have grown to trust the GFS in handling systems a bit better over the SE. I would guess this might amp up as we get closer and IF the system continues to create this type of energy in the lee of the Apps. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Wednesday at 07:10 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 07:10 PM The Euro is a bit deeper with this. The GFS deterministic is still further north but trending south. Interestingly, the GEFS lockstep with the Euro. Either way, this is a quick cold shot which means business. If the winter remembers what happens in November, we should see this reoccur. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Wednesday at 07:11 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 07:11 PM With snow cover in the foothills and higher elevations, most models(not the GFS) have temps 25 to almost 40 degrees below normal on those days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Wednesday at 08:25 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:25 PM The UKIE is closer to the Euro than it is to the GFS camp. The model wars have started early, it seems. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Wednesday at 10:46 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:46 PM 3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: The 12z Euro is leading the way on this 9-10th system. I can't say that gives me a lot of comfort as I have grown to trust the GFS in handling systems a bit better over the SE. I would guess this might amp up as we get closer and IF the system continues to create this type of energy in the lee of the Apps. Looking at the Snow Maps. For whatever Reason the GFS or Euro apparently don't "see" High Knob in Wise County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted yesterday at 05:10 AM Share Posted yesterday at 05:10 AM Basically all the 0z models are getting closer to the Euro depiction regarding the trough kicking of snow showers across parts of the forum area. The GFS is still showing the least. The ICON took a pretty big step towards the Euro. Now we wait for the Euro itself. Sometimes the other models climb on board and then it loses things. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted yesterday at 06:35 AM Share Posted yesterday at 06:35 AM The Euro came a bit south as well. It hammers Northern Kentucky now and spreads snow well into Tennessee. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted yesterday at 08:05 AM Share Posted yesterday at 08:05 AM The Euro is also really cold. My afternoon temp is 30 on Monday. Lows in the lower 20s. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted yesterday at 10:41 AM Share Posted yesterday at 10:41 AM The 06z GFS is starkly different than other modeling regarding snow shower chances. We'll see which way they go over the next 48-72 hours. This may be an all winter trend, as it seems is often the case of very different outcomes being shown by it and the Euro until the last minute. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted yesterday at 12:42 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:42 PM The 6z Euro may have been a bit more vigorous that the 0z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted yesterday at 02:29 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:29 PM 6 hours ago, John1122 said: The Euro is also really cold. My afternoon temp is 30 on Monday. Lows in the lower 20s. I think the cold is locked in at this point regardless of models. My NWS point forecast has zero snow at all Sunday or Monday, but an overnight low of 23 Monday night. Brrr. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted yesterday at 03:17 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:17 PM MJO is headed towards the WP in a few days,Euro and JMA seem to be in good agreement it could possibly stay active as it gets into the NH,no clue what it does after that ATM.But this upcoming pattern as we get towards the middle of Nov looks rather bleak for several days,more than likely SER,just make matters worse all the models has a phoon headed towards East China next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted yesterday at 05:52 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 05:52 PM Pretty interesting development on the 12z GFS and a fair amount of change. It pops a low over the Piedmont of North Carolina as opposed the northern stream dominate solutions it previously had. If true, the Euro(if it doesn't flip at 12z) has scored a "1 vs everybody" coup. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted yesterday at 05:53 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 05:53 PM The 12z CMC now brings the backside energy in the form of heavy snow showers on NW flow...complete cave by it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted yesterday at 05:53 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:53 PM The Euro maintains it's basic camp for our region, the GFS does as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted yesterday at 05:55 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 05:55 PM The 12z RGEM now has the system in range and has healthy bands of snow, rain/snow mix, and rain showers over the eastern half of the forum area - just like the Euro has had run-after-run for days. I am honestly surprised to see the Euro hold after missing so much last season and it being shoulder season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted yesterday at 05:58 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 05:58 PM The 12z CMC vs yesterday's 12z CMC run is night and day different at 500. It is now almost identical to the Euro today at 12z. The GFS popping that low tells me that model is moving bigly to the Euro. We will see. Lots of support for the Euro solution where it had almost none yesterday with the exception of the 12z GEFS ensemble. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted yesterday at 06:00 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 06:00 PM All of that to say, I think chances are increasing for high elevation snow and lower elevation snow showers in the foothills in prime NW flow areas around Nov 10-11. Either way, it should be very cold with afternoon wind chills in the upper teens to lower 20s in many places. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted yesterday at 06:05 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 06:05 PM The 12z CMC has a general 2-3" of snow over the Plateau and 6-12" over the Smokies. NW slopes in the foothills should see some snow as well - time of day dependent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted yesterday at 07:00 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:00 PM 3 hours ago, jaxjagman said: MJO is headed towards the WP in a few days,Euro and JMA seem to be in good agreement it could possibly stay active as it gets into the NH,no clue what it does after that ATM.But this upcoming pattern as we get towards the middle of Nov looks rather bleak for several days,more than likely SER,just make matters worse all the models has a phoon headed towards East China next week If we can get the trip into cold Phases along with the weak PV or SSWE late Nov early December will flip back cold. As we know, that TC heading there is not good if you want a Trough in the East. The Mid Nov Period has been progged mild overall awhile now. Of course, Wavelengths matter too. Also, MJO Ph has a bit different effect irt location in November, particularly early. Most assuredly a warm spell is coming but strength and duration is undetermined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Save the itchy algae! Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 72 hours out from our first (and early) winter event and this place is tumbleweeds.. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 23 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: If we can get the trip into cold Phases along with the weak PV or SSWE late Nov early December will flip back cold. As we know, that TC heading there is not good if you want a Trough in the East. The Mid Nov Period has been progged mild overall awhile now. Of course, Wavelengths matter too. Also, MJO Ph has a bit different effect irt location in November, particularly early. Most assuredly a warm spell is coming but strength and duration is undetermined. Doubt we see any SSWE soon, the Euro shows the winds decelerating some but thats not going to be much to weaken it a whole lot,then shortly after they accererate once again.Its fairly strong right now,well below the modern day era 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 3 hours ago, Save the itchy algae! said: 72 hours out from our first (and early) winter event and this place is tumbleweeds. . Going to be your standard NW event. Doesn't look too meaningful for a lot of folks but hey snow is snow. Warm ground and it'll be falling in the day mostly. I'm just waiting for High-res. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Save the itchy algae! Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Going to be your standard NW event. Doesn't look too meaningful for a lot of folks but hey snow is snow. Warm ground and it'll be falling in the day mostly. I'm just waiting for High-res. For these parts in early November I’ll take it!. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Early season, snow in the air is a win. Even if it's flurries. One of my favorite memories is driving to a UT game vs Vanderbilt many many years ago with snow falling, not sticking but just in the air. It's little things like that that keep me in the weather watching hobby. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago On 11/5/2025 at 7:10 AM, Carvers Gap said: We had a forum prior to AmWx. It was basically the people from this site, but closed down. We were in the SE forum then. When we switched, the owners of this site graciously gave us our own forum. There are lots of storm threads in SE forum thread of the other site, even for our area. Eastern Weather I "think" was its name. I do think they archived it, but I am not sure where it is. It would be great to archive our stuff for the TN Valley and make it like a library. I am not sure how proprietary rights would work with that. But at least we would have a backup. Eastern just went off line one day, and never came back. Lost all of it. It was called easternwx. I remember that day........... sad to lose everything that was put there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted 6 minutes ago Share Posted 6 minutes ago 1 hour ago, tnweathernut said: It was called easternwx. I remember that day........... sad to lose everything that was put there. Wright Weather before it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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