Fall 2025 WX Discussion Thread

[dwagner88]

I drove up to about 3000' on the Cherohala Skyway on summer tires in my GTI during that 2014 snow. I still have a bunch of pictures of it somewhere. I couldn't comfortably drive any further towards the NC line, but I think there was 3-4" on the ground at that elevation and it was still coming down. Super windy and cold too.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Euro is leading the way on this 9-10th system.  I can't say that gives me a lot of comfort as I have grown to trust the GFS in handling systems a bit better over the SE.  I would guess this might amp up as we get closer and IF the system continues to create this type of energy in the lee of the Apps.

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

The Euro is a bit deeper with this.  The GFS deterministic is still further north but trending south.  Interestingly, the GEFS lockstep with the Euro.  Either way, this is a quick cold shot which means business.  If the winter remembers what happens in November, we should see this reoccur.

[Carvers Gap]

With snow cover in the foothills and higher elevations, most models(not the GFS) have temps 25 to almost 40 degrees below normal on those days.

[John1122]

The UKIE is closer to the Euro than it is to the GFS camp. The model wars have started early, it seems. 

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z Euro is leading the way on this 9-10th system.  I can't say that gives me a lot of comfort as I have grown to trust the GFS in handling systems a bit better over the SE.  I would guess this might amp up as we get closer and IF the system continues to create this type of energy in the lee of the Apps.

 

 

Looking at the Snow Maps. For whatever Reason the GFS or Euro apparently don't "see" High Knob in Wise County.

[John1122]

Basically all the 0z models are getting closer to the Euro depiction regarding the trough kicking of snow showers across parts of the forum area. The GFS is still showing the least. The ICON took a pretty big step towards the Euro. Now we wait for the Euro itself. Sometimes the other models climb on board and then it loses things.

[John1122]

The Euro came a bit south as well. It hammers Northern Kentucky now and spreads snow well into Tennessee.

[John1122]

The Euro is also really cold. My afternoon temp is 30 on Monday. Lows in the lower 20s.

[John1122]

The 06z GFS is starkly different than other modeling regarding snow shower chances. We'll see which way they go over the next 48-72 hours. This may be an all winter trend, as it seems is often the case of very different outcomes being shown by it and the Euro until the last minute.

[John1122]

The 6z Euro may have been a bit more vigorous that the 0z.

[dwagner88]

6 hours ago, John1122 said:

The Euro is also really cold. My afternoon temp is 30 on Monday. Lows in the lower 20s.

I think the cold is locked in at this point regardless of models. My NWS point forecast has zero snow at all Sunday or Monday, but an overnight low of 23 Monday night. Brrr.

[jaxjagman]

MJO is headed towards the WP in a few days,Euro and JMA seem to be in good agreement it could possibly stay active as it gets into the NH,no clue what it does after that ATM.But this upcoming pattern as we get towards the middle of Nov looks rather bleak for several days,more than likely SER,just make matters worse all the models has a phoon headed towards East China next week

[Carvers Gap]

Pretty interesting development on the 12z GFS and a fair amount of change.  It pops a low over the Piedmont of North Carolina as opposed the northern stream dominate solutions it previously had.  If true, the Euro(if it doesn't flip at 12z) has scored a "1 vs everybody" coup.

 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z CMC now brings the backside energy in the form of heavy snow showers on NW flow...complete cave by it.

[John1122]

The Euro maintains it's basic camp for our region, the GFS does as well.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z RGEM now has the system in range and has healthy bands of snow, rain/snow mix, and rain showers over the eastern half of the forum area - just like the Euro has had run-after-run for days.  I am honestly surprised to see the Euro hold after missing so much last season and it being shoulder season.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z CMC vs yesterday's 12z CMC run is night and day different at 500.  It is now almost identical to the Euro today at 12z.  The GFS popping that low tells me that model is moving bigly to the Euro.   We will see.  Lots of support for the Euro solution where it had almost none yesterday with the exception of the 12z GEFS ensemble.

 

[Carvers Gap]

All of that to say, I think chances are increasing for high elevation snow and lower elevation snow showers in the foothills in prime NW flow areas around Nov 10-11.  Either way, it should be very cold with afternoon wind chills in the upper teens to lower 20s in many places.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z CMC has a general 2-3" of snow over the Plateau and 6-12" over the Smokies.  NW slopes in the foothills should see some snow as well - time of day dependent.  

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

MJO is headed towards the WP in a few days,Euro and JMA seem to be in good agreement it could possibly stay active as it gets into the NH,no clue what it does after that ATM.But this upcoming pattern as we get towards the middle of Nov looks rather bleak for several days,more than likely SER,just make matters worse all the models has a phoon headed towards East China next week

If we can get the trip into cold Phases along with the weak PV or SSWE late Nov early December will flip back cold. As we know, that TC heading there is not good if you want a Trough in the East. The Mid Nov Period has been progged mild overall awhile now. Of course, Wavelengths matter too. Also, MJO Ph has a bit different effect irt location in November, particularly early. Most assuredly a warm spell is coming but strength and duration is undetermined.