Fall 2025 WX Discussion Thread

[dwagner88]

I drove up to about 3000' on the Cherohala Skyway on summer tires in my GTI during that 2014 snow. I still have a bunch of pictures of it somewhere. I couldn't comfortably drive any further towards the NC line, but I think there was 3-4" on the ground at that elevation and it was still coming down. Super windy and cold too.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Euro is leading the way on this 9-10th system.  I can't say that gives me a lot of comfort as I have grown to trust the GFS in handling systems a bit better over the SE.  I would guess this might amp up as we get closer and IF the system continues to create this type of energy in the lee of the Apps.

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

The Euro is a bit deeper with this.  The GFS deterministic is still further north but trending south.  Interestingly, the GEFS lockstep with the Euro.  Either way, this is a quick cold shot which means business.  If the winter remembers what happens in November, we should see this reoccur.

[Carvers Gap]

With snow cover in the foothills and higher elevations, most models(not the GFS) have temps 25 to almost 40 degrees below normal on those days.

[John1122]

The UKIE is closer to the Euro than it is to the GFS camp. The model wars have started early, it seems. 

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z Euro is leading the way on this 9-10th system.  I can't say that gives me a lot of comfort as I have grown to trust the GFS in handling systems a bit better over the SE.  I would guess this might amp up as we get closer and IF the system continues to create this type of energy in the lee of the Apps.

 

 

Looking at the Snow Maps. For whatever Reason the GFS or Euro apparently don't "see" High Knob in Wise County.