Fall 2025 WX Discussion Thread

[Carvers Gap]

The first NCAA football weekend of the year.  This fall appears to be beginning at or below normal for temps.  I am sure we will have some warmer temps as fall progresses, but what a great way to start it.  Carry on

[nrgjeff]

Nice evenings and mornings make warm afternoons in the 80s easy going this week. Except Friday could hit 90 which will feel hot. Prefrontal warming strikes before a cool weekend. Looking out a week the next warm up is weaker, as one would expect deeper into September.

Great Lakes trough will take a couple short-waves to cool down our region. See Friday prefrontal heat. Later next week after the Great Lakes mean trough fills, 500 mb heights should remain at or below normal in the Southeast. Midwest warmth should get into the Mid-South at times but it should be brief.

[John1122]

My air conditioner hasn't ran for 9 straight days to close August and begin September. That's unheard of. I just leave the windows open at night and the house has dropped down into the mid-60s. The highest it's gotten inside in that time frame is 73. 

Looks like I will be able to keep the a/c off the rest of the week as well, as long as we can keep getting into the 50s at night. 

[John1122]

I'm also a fan of the daily rain as we head into dry season. I've has 1.25 inches the first two days this week and it's coming down outside now. 

[John1122]

That storm that just passed dropped half an inch in 35 minutes and had some very loud thunder due to some really close cloud to ground on the ridge behind my house.  

[Carvers Gap]

We had rain all morning.  It lasted for 6-7 hours.  Honestly, this is not the normal pattern that we are experiencing when compared to the last decade or so with extended summer.  Our daytime highs for August finished -3F BN.  We hit 90F only twice which is well below normal.  We were well AN on rainfall.  With the exception of Friday, that pattern appears to continue w/ maybe a ridge rolling through from time to time.  The leaves here have started changing.  There are some trees behind the bank at the YMCA which are fully red.  Now, that isn't the norm, but man.  Most of the trees along the river are turning yellow, but maples are definitely starting to show color.  That fits with the earlier than normal bird migration.  I can attest to the earlier migration as the hawks appeared here about two weeks earlier than last last year - they migrate through here as it is is a flyway.  I have seen several in the past couple of weeks.  They like my street for whatever reason.

Of note, leaf changes have started early here during the past several years - only to pause during September.  I would guess  right now that the leaves are going to peak 7-14 days early this year when compared to last year, and maybe 5-7 days quicker than the norm.  I noticed lots of leaves on the paths which I run on - again, earlier than normal.   A prolonged period of warm and dry will pause that process a bit.  Most leaves change due to the length of day, but cold mornings will accelerate that change or delay it.  

The good thing about all of this is that we are unlikely to have to erase large anomalies of heat over NA, and we should have normal to AN ground moisture (comparative to fall) in our region.  That soil moisture content alone could allow for cooler temp intrusions earlier in the season.  I have to think some part of November and December is gonna be really cold against the norms.

Fingers crossed.  @Holston_River_Rambler, is gonna have to provide a wooly worm update, or other(elk?) seasonal tells. 

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

We had rain all morning.  It lasted for 6-7 hours.  Honestly, this is not the normal pattern that we are experiencing when compared to the last decade or so with extended summer.  Our daytime highs for August finished -3F BN.  We hit 90F only twice which is well below normal.  We were well AN on rainfall.  With the exception of Friday, that pattern appears to continue w/ maybe a ridge rolling through from time to time.  The leaves here have started changing.  There are some trees behind the bank at the YMCA which are fully red.  Now, that isn't the norm, but man.  Most of the trees along the river are turning yellow, but maples are definitely starting to show color.  That fits with the earlier than normal bird migration.  I can attest to the earlier migration as the hawks appeared here about two weeks earlier than last last year - they migrate through here as it is is a flyway.  I have seen several in the past couple of weeks.  They like my street for whatever reason.

Of note, leaf changes have started early here during the past several years - only to pause during September.  I would guess  right now that the leaves are going to peak 7-14 days early this year when compared to last year, and maybe 5-7 days quicker than the norm.  I noticed lots of leaves on the paths which I run on - again, earlier than normal.   A prolonged period of warm and dry will pause that process a bit.  Most leaves change due to the length of day, but cold mornings will accelerate that change or delay it.  

The good thing about all of this is that we are unlikely to have to erase large anomalies of heat over NA, and we should have normal to AN ground moisture (comparative to fall) in our region.  That soil moisture content alone could allow for cooler temp intrusions earlier in the season.  I have to think some part of November and December is gonna be really cold against the norms.

Fingers crossed.  @Holston_River_Rambler, is gonna have to provide a wooly worm update, or other(elk?) seasonal tells. 

We had a couple hours of early morning rain..1.24" Total. Jonesville proper, 2.18". Thar same pecip field moved over your area and kept expanding and backfilling. 

   I'm expecting early cold and snow. May be another November Snowfall. Hopefully, an old fashioned big one.

[Matthew70]

Sadly for here in Northern Middle & West TN.  The rains have all but disappeared.  Nashville got some today but the drought is really setting in & the trees are flat out turning yellow to brown.  We are  going to have a very early looking fall.  By the end of September the leaves will be gone.  My yard is completely brown.  Even my neighbors who have sprinklers have given up.  No way to keep up with how much it would cost to keep green.  It will be interesting how many trees die from this drought.  I remember the last one we had killed many. We sadly can only get a few dust splattering drops. 

[Carvers Gap]

10 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

Sadly for here in Northern Middle & West TN.  The rains have all but disappeared.  Nashville got some today but the drought is really setting in & the trees are flat out turning yellow to brown.  We are  going to have a very early looking fall.  By the end of September the leaves will be gone.  My yard is completely brown.  Even my neighbors who have sprinklers have given up.  No way to keep up with how much it would cost to keep green.  It will be interesting how many trees die from this drought.  I remember the last one we had killed many. We sadly can only get a few dust splattering drops. 

Good perspective.  Yes, the western half of the forum is very dry.  This late summer and early fall season has kind of flipped from the recent decadal patterns for the forum area.  This is the first time in a very long time that July/August rains have returned to an area where they used to be common(E TN).  This recent stretch of La Ninas has thrown a wrench into what used to be NE TN's rainiest month - but not this year.   

[Carvers Gap]

11 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

We had a couple hours of early morning rain..1.24" Total. Jonesville proper, 2.18". Thar same pecip field moved over your area and kept expanding and backfilling. 

   I'm expecting early cold and snow. May be another November Snowfall. Hopefully, an old fashioned big one.

I never like going into winter with a drought(if one wants a snowy winter).   We are getting more rain this morning, and it is forecast agains this weekend.  I mean I can remember recent fall months where we received less than 0.2" of rain at my house total for a 30d timeframe.  So, this is welcome. 

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I never like going into winter with a drought(if one wants a snowy winter).   We are getting more rain this morning, and it is forecast agains this weekend.  I mean I can remember recent fall months where we received less than 0.2" of rain at my house total for a 30d timeframe.  So, this is welcome. 

As of this writing, I'm approaching an inch on the Day. Alot of lightning and thunder. Kmrx put a severe t storm warning out for Jonesville. It just missed my local about a mile to my South as Wallen Ridge and Powell Mountain appeared to do their thing of pulling the Storm South with their Lift.

[Carvers Gap]

***warning has expired*** Tornado warning posted for Oak Ridge and Oliver springs.  Box is heading eastward.

[John1122]

Picked up .95 today so far, one severe warned storm but the wording at the bottom said "tornado possible" with it. 

[Met1985]

That severe line that moved through Johnson City.

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[John1122]

Absolutely flooding down here again. I honestly didn't expect nearly this much rain this week. I wish the middle and western areas were getting in on it. 

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, Met1985 said:

That severe line that moved through Johnson City.

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I know exactly where that is!  Interestingly, one of my kiddos was just across the street from there about an hour ago.  We just finished w/ our second line of storms here in Kingsport.  Fortunately, we have been spared the really severe stuff.  I did see some reports out of South Knoxville of half dollar size hail - but that is second hand information by me.

[Carvers Gap]

Knoxville south of I40-75 is on the rain train.