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Tropical Storm Chantal


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51 knots a little closer to the center. Should be an upgrade to at least 45 mph, maybe 50? Seems to be overperforming since the beginning. Wouldnt be surprised to see it become a high end TS, maybe 70 mph.

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Tropical Storm Chantal Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032025
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025
 
...CHANTAL STRENGTHENS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE WARNING AREA 
THIS EVENING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 78.7W
ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
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VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032025
A. 06/01:05:50Z
B. 32.45 deg N 078.72 deg W
C. 850 mb 1482 m
D. 1005 mb
E. 015 deg 12 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 26 kt
I. 212 deg 44 nm 00:51:30Z
J. 317 deg 20 kt
K. 212 deg 54 nm 00:48:30Z
L. 51 kt
M. 051 deg 40 nm 01:18:00Z
N. 147 deg 55 kt
O. 051 deg 42 nm 01:18:30Z
P. 17 C / 1519 m
Q. 20 C / 1522 m
R. 16 C / NA
S. 12345 / 8
T. 0.02 / 15 nm
U. AF303 0303A CHANTAL OB 03
MAX FL WIND 55 KT 051 / 42 NM 01:18:
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As Barry posted, flash flooding is the biggest concern from Chantal. This covers NE SC and SE NC. The main area of solid rain is just entering these areas:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
FLOOD WATCH  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
1250 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025  

NCZ099-109-110-SCZ054-058-059-061215-  
/O.NEW.KILM.FA.A.0002.250705T1700Z-250708T0000Z/  
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/  
COLUMBUS-INLAND BRUNSWICK-COASTAL BRUNSWICK-COASTAL HORRY-CENTRAL  
HORRY-NORTHERN HORRY-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF MYRTLE BEACH, LONG BEACH, SHALLOTTE, OAK  
ISLAND, AYNOR, LONGS, SOUTHPORT, LORIS, BUCKSPORT, CHADBOURN,  
BOILING SPRING LAKES, GARDEN CITY, SOCASTEE, SUNSET BEACH, GREEN  
SEA, NORTH MYRTLE BEACH, LELAND, WHITEVILLE, LITTLE RIVER, TABOR  
CITY, LAKE WACCAMAW, AND CONWAY  
1250 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025  

..FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING  

* WHAT...FLASH FLOODING CAUSED BY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.  

* WHERE...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA, INCLUDING THE  
FOLLOWING AREAS, COASTAL BRUNSWICK, COLUMBUS AND INLAND BRUNSWICK  
AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS,  
CENTRAL HORRY, COASTAL HORRY AND NORTHERN HORRY.  

* WHEN...THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.  

* IMPACTS...EXCESSIVE RUNOFF MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF RIVERS,  
CREEKS, STREAMS, AND OTHER LOW-LYING AND FLOOD-PRONE LOCATIONS.  

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...  
- HEAVY RAIN FROM TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WILL INCREASINGLY  
EFFECT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  
- WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/FLOOD  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE  
DANGERS OF FLOODING.  

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION  
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

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Posted just after 1AM in SE subforum by someone visiting N Myrtle Beach, he said this at ~1AM as it’s gotten quite stormy there (consistent with the radar):

“Hello everyone, I normally post on the New England forum however I am in North Myrtle Beach and the weather has quickly deteriorated to heavy squalls and the wind has increased considerably in the last 30 minutes from an estimated 10 to 15 miles an hour to 20 to 25 with a couple of gusts that have been 40mph at least, I don’t have an anemometer however I think that is a pretty close estimate.”

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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chantal Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
200 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025

...CHANTAL A LITTLE STRONGER AND CLOSE TO LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH 
CAROLINA COAST...
...FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS INCREASE AS RAINBANDS MOVES ONSHORE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 78.8W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM ENE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

Recent aircraft and land-based radar velocity data indicate that 
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with 
higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall, 
with rapid weakening forecast after landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) 
from the center. Within the past hour, Springmaid Pier in South 
Carolina reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) gusting to 
56 mph (90 km/h). 

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force dropsonde
data is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

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45mph wind gusts near shore last night, and also at Myrtle Beach Airport

Quote

KCRE 060616Z AUTO 07017G39KT 1 1/2SM +RA BR BKN008 OVC017 24/23 A2978 RMK AO1 PK WND 07042/0555 LTG DSNT SE AND S P0029 T02390228

e3NTT9l.jpeg

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 This is bad, folks, especially for areas west of the Fayetteville to Raleigh corridor, where very heavy rains have fallen:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC  
709 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS EXTENDED THE  
  
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHWESTERN HOKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...  
  LEE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...  
  MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...  
  MOORE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...  
  NORTHEASTERN RICHMOND COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...  
  
* UNTIL 1115 PM EDT.  
  
* AT 709 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE HEAVY RAIN HAS LARGELY   
  ENDED, HOWEVER EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED UP TO 7 INCHES OF   
  OVER MOORE COUNTY. FLOODING IS ONGOING.  
  
  HAZARD...FLASH FLOODING CAUSED BY THUNDERSTORMS.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR.  
  
  IMPACT...FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS, URBAN  
           AREAS, HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS  
           OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS.  
  
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...  
  SANFORD, SOUTHERN PINES, TROY, CARTHAGE, PINEHURST, ABERDEEN,   
  BISCOE, HOFFMAN, WHISPERING PINES, PINEBLUFF, ROBBINS, FOXFIRE,   
  STAR, CANDOR, TAYLORTOWN, VASS, CAMERON AND NORMAN. 

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC  
656 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A  
  
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
  A DAM FAILURE OF A FARM POND AT THE HEAD OF JOES FORK IN...  
  CENTRAL MOORE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...  
  
* UNTIL 1245 AM EDT.  
  
* AT 656 PM EDT, LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED THE IMMINENT FAILURE   
  OF THE FARM POND DAM.  
  
  HAZARD...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING FROM THE IMMINENT  
           FAILURE OF A FARM POND A THE HEAD OF JOES FORK.  
  
  SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED.  
  
  IMPACT...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR AREAS  
           DOWNSTREAM FROM THE FARM POND AT THE HEAD OF JOES  
           FORK.  
  
* THE NEAREST DOWNSTREAM LOCATION IS MAIN STREET BETWEEN RICHMOND ST   
  AND ALSTON DR IN TAYLORTOWN. ROADS ALONG AND ADJACENT TO JOES FORK   
  MAY BECOME FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE.  
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
  
IF YOU ARE IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG JOES CREEK BETWEEN TAYLORTOWN   
AND WHISPERING PINES YOU SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.   
NEVER DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC  
704 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A  
  
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHEASTERN ALAMANCE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...  
  DURHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...  
  NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...  
  
* UNTIL 1000 PM EDT.  
  
* AT 704 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING   
  HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE   
  FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING OR EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.  
  
  HAZARD...FLASH FLOODING CAUSED BY THUNDERSTORMS.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR.  
  
  IMPACT...FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS, URBAN  
           AREAS, HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS  
           OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS.  
  
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...  
  DURHAM, HILLSBOROUGH, ROUGEMONT, SCHLEY, ENO RIVER STATE PARK,   
  BAHAMA, LAKE MICHIE, CARR, AND UNION RIDGE. 

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4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC  
704 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A  
  
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHEASTERN ALAMANCE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...  
  DURHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...  
  NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...  
  
* UNTIL 1000 PM EDT.  
  
* AT 704 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING   
  HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE   
  FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING OR EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.  
  
  HAZARD...FLASH FLOODING CAUSED BY THUNDERSTORMS.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR.  
  
  IMPACT...FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS, URBAN  
           AREAS, HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS  
           OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS.  
  
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...  
  DURHAM, HILLSBOROUGH, ROUGEMONT, SCHLEY, ENO RIVER STATE PARK,   
  BAHAMA, LAKE MICHIE, CARR, AND UNION RIDGE. 

Rain rates have been really intense near and over Chapel Hill for a few hours now, probably the next area to see significant flooding. 

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC  
935 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A  

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
PERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...  

* UNTIL 145 AM EDT.  

* AT 935 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING  
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE  
FALLEN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE  
IN THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING OR EXPECTED TO BEGIN  
SHORTLY.  

HAZARD...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS  
PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING.  

SOURCE...RADAR.  

IMPACT...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS,  
URBAN AREAS, HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES.  

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...  
ROXBORO, CONCORD, SURL, BUSHY FORK, BETHEL HILL, MAYO RESERVOIR,  
HYCO LAKE, HYCO MARINA AND MORIAH.  

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AREAS ACROSS PERSON COUNTY COULD RECEIVE AN  
ADDITIONAL 3-6 INCHES OF RAINFALL RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING.

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12 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Some places west of Raleigh have seen nearly 1 foot of rain! Forecast was for amounts of 1-4” with isolated totals of 6”. Per RadarScope I’m seeing widespread 5+” totals with several areas more than double that. 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC  
1032 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS EXTENDED THE  
  
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
  ALAMANCE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...  
  CHATHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...  
  SOUTHWESTERN DURHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...  
  SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...  
  EASTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...  
  
* UNTIL 200 AM EDT.  
  
* AT 1032 PM EDT, WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH   
  OF ORANGE, ALAMANCE AND CHATHAM COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS RAINFALL   
  AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE AREA WITH   
  LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES. NUMEROUS WATER RESCUES   
  HAVE OCCURRED THIS EVENING AND SOME HOMES FLOODED.
PLEASE DO NOT   
  TRAVEL UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO SEE   
  THE DANGERS OF FLOODING AT NIGHT.  
  
  HAZARD...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS  
           PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING.  
  
  SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED.  
  
  IMPACT...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS,  
           URBAN AREAS, HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES.  
  
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...  
  CHAPEL HILL, BURLINGTON, GRAHAM, HILLSBOROUGH, PITTSBORO, SILER   
  CITY, CARRBORO, MEBANE, GOLDSTON, ELON, GIBSONVILLE, LIBERTY, HAW   
  RIVER, RAMSEUR, FRANKLINVILLE, SWEPSONVILLE, ALAMANCE, STALEY AND   
  SUTPHIN. 

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC  
1042 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  

...FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MODERATE TO MAJOR SEVERITY AND  
INCREASED IN DURATION FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NORTH CAROLINA...  

HAW RIVER AT HAW RIVER AFFECTING ALAMANCE COUNTY. 


250707T1727Z.NO/  
1042 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  

..FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING  

* WHAT...MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS  
FORECAST.  

* WHERE...HAW RIVER AT HAW RIVER.  

* WHEN...UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  

* IMPACTS...AT 18.0 FEET, MINOR FLOODING BEGINS. OVERFLOW BEGINS ON  
BOTH BANKS AT THE WATER TREATMENT PLANT.  
AT 20.0 FEET, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT OVERFLOW ON THE RIGHT BANK  
OPPOSITE THE WATER TREATMENT PLANT. WATER ALSO REACHES THE RED  
SLIDE PARK UPSTREAM OF THE MAIN ST. BRIDGE.  
AT 23.0 FEET, MODERATE FLOODING BEGINS. FLOODING REACHES THE BASE  
OF THE WATER TREATMENT PLANT BUILDING. THERE IS ALSO SIGNIFICANT  
FLOODING OF THE RED SLIDE PARK UPSTREAM OF THE MAIN ST. BRIDGE,  
AND LANG ST WILL BE IMPASSABLE  
AT 25.5 FEET, THE WATER TREATMENT PLANT BUILDING FLOODS.  
AT 26.0 FEET, TRAILER HOMES ADJACENT TO THE RIVER AND THE WATER  
TREATMENT PLANT FLOOD. EVACUATIONS MAY BE NECESSARY.  
AT 27.0 FEET, MAJOR FLOODING BEGINS. THE TOWN OF HAW RIVER BEGINS  
TO FLOOD.  
AT 28.0 FEET, FLOOD WATERS REACH THE BOTTOM OF THE BRIDGE ACROSS I40.  

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...  
- AT 9:45 PM EDT SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.5 FEET.  
- FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO A CREST OF 27.5  
FEET JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN FALL BELOW  
FLOOD STAGE EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
- FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.  
- FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF  
26.3 FEET ON 09/17/2018.  

- HTTP://www.weather.gov/SAFETY/FLOOD  



FLD OBSERVED FORECASTS (8 PM EDT)  
LOCATION STG STG DAY/TIME MON TUE WED THU  

HAW RIVER  
HAW RIVE 18.0 25.5 SUN 9 PM EDT 14.0 10.6 8.4 6.0

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20 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

With the events in Texas this flood event is definitely being overshadowed but this is a devastating flood for parts of NC with several rivers nearing and even exceeding all time record crests

 When was the last single event for which most of this section of central NC received this much rainfall within a 24 hour period?

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4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 When was the last single event for which most of this section of central NC received this much rainfall within a 24 hour period?

Obviously hurricanes Florence and Michael had catastrophic flood events for parts of central NC but that was mostly east of the areas impacted by Chantal. I think these areas you’d have to go back to 1996 Hurricane Fran to find anything close to this. You keep seeing the record crests from that storm mentioned in NWS flood forecasts as it was the benchmark for these areas in terms of river flooding which makes this all the more impressive 

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