2025-2026 Winter Speculation Thread

[Met1985]

My opinion at this point is we have a lot of uncertainty still remaining and obviously all yall pros on here know that. 

The above maps looks good but at this point im very skeptical.  The PDO just hit a 170 year old record at -4 but what does that say about the pac? Will that go back up? 

I think we have a lot of volatility on the board also and a lot of unknowns with the global climate and weather pattern. 

I do agree that a more neutral ENSO is best for us and our general areas. Too much blocking is bad, and not enough blocking is bad and depending on thread the needle situations are always either great or heartbreaking.  I have seen that the global temperature from last year to this year has cooled significantly in the big scheme of things. So that has to be a good sign right? 

I'm definitely looking forward to this winter and seeing how it plays out. I know already the first of August has been an absolute treat. Haven't hit 80 yet at the house. I'm hoping we see a bit of an early start to Fall or at least an early cold blast. 

[WintryMixmaster]

Hi everyone! I've lived in Knoxville for the past 4 years and I've read this board during every snowstorm - growing up, I got into weather watching Nor'Easters hit (and sometimes miss) my backyard, slowly learning more about the model strengths and weaknesses and making forecasts for myself. I had forgotten much of my weather knowledge from back in the day but I always appreciated the insights and passion from everyone on this forum as I've revived my own passion for weather. I've learned a lot about what ingredients we need here to get snow here, and how much harder it is to thread that needle than I'm used to!

For those of you who have lived in East Tennessee for much longer than I have, I'm curious about what you consider to be the "average" snowfall for Knoxville. I think I've seen it brought up that some of the very old TYS data has some missing/inaccurate totals, but online I've seen both 4.6 and 6.0 inches reported as the average. Do those seem about right? Sorry if this is a bit off-topic, I think it just gives me some useful perspective for the winter speculation.

[Carvers Gap]

9 hours ago, WintryMixmaster said:

Hi everyone! I've lived in Knoxville for the past 4 years and I've read this board during every snowstorm - growing up, I got into weather watching Nor'Easters hit (and sometimes miss) my backyard, slowly learning more about the model strengths and weaknesses and making forecasts for myself. I had forgotten much of my weather knowledge from back in the day but I always appreciated the insights and passion from everyone on this forum as I've revived my own passion for weather. I've learned a lot about what ingredients we need here to get snow here, and how much harder it is to thread that needle than I'm used to!

For those of you who have lived in East Tennessee for much longer than I have, I'm curious about what you consider to be the "average" snowfall for Knoxville. I think I've seen it brought up that some of the very old TYS data has some missing/inaccurate totals, but online I've seen both 4.6 and 6.0 inches reported as the average. Do those seem about right? Sorry if this is a bit off-topic, I think it just gives me some useful perspective for the winter speculation.

Welcome aboard.  I lived in Knoxville during all of the 70s.  I had no idea how good that decade was at the time.  During the 70s it often started snowing during late December and usually lasted into February quite consistently.  Snow droughts weren't even really anything I thought about, though there were certainly some mild winters embedded during that decade.  I also lived there during the 93 blizzard, the 93-94 winter, and 95-96 winter.  The 90s did feature some snowless winters or nearly snowless in Knoxville.  Those are easily the worst winters of my lifetime, but again, with some great winters embedded.  

Knoxville has done really well recently(2020s to clarify), even better than TRI during many winters.  I do think that notch along the Plateau funnels precip into the Knoxville area - someone (maybe @TellicoWx) had a great post last winter about it.  At TRI, we have no such relief...just a solid Plateau wall to our West.  At first I was a bit skeptical that the Knoxville notch helped.  But when out West, you can see where openings in the mountain ranges (which lie west to east) have higher snow totals.  For example, Alpine(WY) is much snowier than Jackson(WY), but Alpine is at a lower elevation.  However, Alpine sits right in one of those notches if you look on Google Earth.  Places in Star Valley to the south have less say in Afton.  Afton is at higher elevation - but no opening in the mountain for snow to reach it easily.

So, long story short.  I think Knoxville does really well during certain NW flow events(almost wnw flow events), during snow storms where the fetch is from the SE(but limited warm nose), and they do incredibly well with sliders.  Sliders seem to be our best snow makers these days, and that would also explain TRI getting less snow during recent winters.  I would say "for now" that 4-6" is about right for Knoxville, BUT recent trends definitely have Knoxville trending better.  I would guess there are places in the Knoxville which are averaging 10+" during good winters recently.  At one point during the 2010s and 2000s, I can remember on this forum where Knoxville would get very little compared to TRI.  Recently, Knoxville has had two really big snows.  I do think the sliders in conjunction w/ that notch where I-40 comes into town is the big contributor.  Even during those 197-s winters as a kid, I knew the best snows usually went from Memphis to Knoxville.  Still true today.

I also think the 2020s and late 2010s cold shots, though short lived, have produced an environment where Knoxville kind of is in the sweet spot.  Gulf moisture interact w/ the cold air from the North at about Knoxville's latitude.  South of that, no luck.  North of that, too cold.  Again 4-6" is probably right as a generality, but I wouldn't be surprised for Knoxville to surpass that average during some(not all) of the upcoming winters if trends persist.  I think this winter has a chance to be good for TYS.

Here is a TRI note....The early 2000s didn't have a tone of snow here.  As this century has progressed, small snows have become more frequent as have some the frequency of short-lived, brutal cold snaps.  Big snows have been less.  Why?  I suspect moderate to strong La Ninas are the likely cause along w the aforementioned PDO by met85.  We have had a load of La Ninas since 2016 or so.  In NE TN we really need a weak ENSO state but not neutral and definitely not moderate to strong.  As John notes, that is less a player as you head west and has less correlation from the Plateau westward.  Though, I could make a pretty good case that middle and western Tenn have done decently well w/ the La Nina pattern.  Interestingly, east Knoxville and the Foothills are probably is in the same boat as TRI.

TYS during good winters: 8-10" (frequency of that about 1 out of every 2-3 years currently) w/ higher lollipops depending on local

TYS during lousy winters 2-4"

It just seems to want to snow in Knoxville of late.  That is weird to say from a scientific standpoint, bit it is kinda true.

[Daniel Boone]

14 hours ago, Met1985 said:

My opinion at this point is we have a lot of uncertainty still remaining and obviously all yall pros on here know that. 

The above maps looks good but at this point im very skeptical.  The PDO just hit a 170 year old record at -4 but what does that say about the pac? Will that go back up? 

I think we have a lot of volatility on the board also and a lot of unknowns with the global climate and weather pattern. 

I do agree that a more neutral ENSO is best for us and our general areas. Too much blocking is bad, and not enough blocking is bad and depending on thread the needle situations are always either great or heartbreaking.  I have seen that the global temperature from last year to this year has cooled significantly in the big scheme of things. So that has to be a good sign right? 

I'm definitely looking forward to this winter and seeing how it plays out. I know already the first of August has been an absolute treat. Haven't hit 80 yet at the house. I'm hoping we see a bit of an early start to Fall or at least an early cold blast. 

Yeah, that PDO is bad as of now. Last year at this juncture it was low but not this low and it managed to rise rapidly in November. That helped irt last Winter without a doubt.

[Carvers Gap]

The PDO is not good.  Extremes in, though, weather can wreck havoc.  I remember some of those extremely -NAOs turned out to be terrible here.  The NAO cycle right now appears to be trending towards more negative episode.  I am gonna guess it fires early and holds off/on through January(beginning in late November).   We are always fighting something.  If it isn't the PDO, it is something else.  However, during the last few winters we have found extreme cold making its way into the area despite a multitude of bad teleconnections.  Until I see otherwise, I am riding the seasonal trend of cold early to mid winter.  One of these days that extreme cold is gonna hit the atmospheric river over the TN Valley.  I am gonna be here for that action Lord willing!!!!

[Met1985]

20 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The PDO is not good.  Extremes in, though, weather can wreck havoc.  I remember some of those extremely -NAOs turned out to be terrible here.  The NAO cycle right now appears to be trending towards more negative episode.  I am gonna guess it fires early and holds off/on through January(beginning in late November).   We are always fighting something.  If it isn't the PDO, it is something else.  However, during the last few winters we have found extreme cold making its way into the area despite a multitude of bad teleconnections.  Until I see otherwise, I am riding the seasonal trend of cold early to mid winter.  One of these days that extreme cold is gonna hit the atmospheric river over the TN Valley.  I am gonna be here for that action Lord willing!!!!

Yeah I see a lot of similarities to this upcoming winter from last cold season. If we can get that cold air in here we always have a chance. 

[John1122]

17 hours ago, WintryMixmaster said:

Hi everyone! I've lived in Knoxville for the past 4 years and I've read this board during every snowstorm - growing up, I got into weather watching Nor'Easters hit (and sometimes miss) my backyard, slowly learning more about the model strengths and weaknesses and making forecasts for myself. I had forgotten much of my weather knowledge from back in the day but I always appreciated the insights and passion from everyone on this forum as I've revived my own passion for weather. I've learned a lot about what ingredients we need here to get snow here, and how much harder it is to thread that needle than I'm used to!

For those of you who have lived in East Tennessee for much longer than I have, I'm curious about what you consider to be the "average" snowfall for Knoxville. I think I've seen it brought up that some of the very old TYS data has some missing/inaccurate totals, but online I've seen both 4.6 and 6.0 inches reported as the average. Do those seem about right? Sorry if this is a bit off-topic, I think it just gives me some useful perspective for the winter speculation.

For Knoxville, location is important. North Knoxville will generally do better than other spots, it's generally more elevated. 

Also, in addition to key missing data, the airport isn't in Knoxville really. It's SE of Knoxville in an extremely densely paved area. It's warmer and records less snow than folks do even a few miles away now. 

[dwagner88]

25 minutes ago, John1122 said:

For Knoxville, location is important. North Knoxville will generally do better than other spots, it's generally more elevated. 

Also, in addition to key missing data, the airport isn't in Knoxville really. It's SE of Knoxville in an extremely densely paved area. It's warmer and records less snow than folks do even a few miles away now. 

Is it even in Knox County? I've always pictured it being closer to Maryville than Knoxville.

[Jed33]

TYS is in Blount Co and like John said, it’s highly paved and concreted. It has its own mini heat island effect unfortunately. It definitely does not receive as much snow generally as surrounding areas.

[IndTenn]

4 hours ago, dwagner88 said:

Is it even in Knox County? I've always pictured it being closer to Maryville than Knoxville.

It is closer to Maryville.  The terminal is 3.5 miles to downtown Maryville and 11.5 miles to downtown Knoxville.

[WintryMixmaster]

14 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Welcome aboard.  I lived in Knoxville during all of the 70s.  I had no idea how good that decade was at the time.  During the 70s it often started snowing during late December and usually lasted into February quite consistently.  Snow droughts weren't even really anything I thought about, though there were certainly some mild winters embedded during that decade.  I also lived there during the 93 blizzard, the 93-94 winter, and 95-96 winter.  The 90s did feature some snowless winters or nearly snowless in Knoxville.  Those are easily the worst winters of my lifetime, but again, with some great winters embedded.  

Knoxville has done really well recently(2020s to clarify), even better than TRI during many winters.  I do think that notch along the Plateau funnels precip into the Knoxville area - someone (maybe @TellicoWx) had a great post last winter about it.  At TRI, we have no such relief...just a solid Plateau wall to our West.  At first I was a bit skeptical that the Knoxville notch helped.  But when out West, you can see where openings in the mountain ranges (which lie west to east) have higher snow totals.  For example, Alpine(WY) is much snowier than Jackson(WY), but Alpine is at a lower elevation.  However, Alpine sits right in one of those notches if you look on Google Earth.  Places in Star Valley to the south have less say in Afton.  Afton is at higher elevation - but no opening in the mountain for snow to reach it easily.

So, long story short.  I think Knoxville does really well during certain NW flow events(almost wnw flow events), during snow storms where the fetch is from the SE(but limited warm nose), and they do incredibly well with sliders.  Sliders seem to be our best snow makers these days, and that would also explain TRI getting less snow during recent winters.  I would say "for now" that 4-6" is about right for Knoxville, BUT recent trends definitely have Knoxville trending better.  I would guess there are places in the Knoxville which are averaging 10+" during good winters recently.  At one point during the 2010s and 2000s, I can remember on this forum where Knoxville would get very little compared to TRI.  Recently, Knoxville has had two really big snows.  I do think the sliders in conjunction w/ that notch where I-40 comes into town is the big contributor.  Even during those 197-s winters as a kid, I knew the best snows usually went from Memphis to Knoxville.  Still true today.

I also think the 2020s and late 2010s cold shots, though short lived, have produced an environment where Knoxville kind of is in the sweet spot.  Gulf moisture interact w/ the cold air from the North at about Knoxville's latitude.  South of that, no luck.  North of that, too cold.  Again 4-6" is probably right as a generality, but I wouldn't be surprised for Knoxville to surpass that average during some(not all) of the upcoming winters if trends persist.  I think this winter has a chance to be good for TYS.

Here is a TRI note....The early 2000s didn't have a tone of snow here.  As this century has progressed, small snows have become more frequent as have some the frequency of short-lived, brutal cold snaps.  Big snows have been less.  Why?  I suspect moderate to strong La Ninas are the likely cause along w the aforementioned PDO by met85.  We have had a load of La Ninas since 2016 or so.  In NE TN we really need a weak ENSO state but not neutral and definitely not moderate to strong.  As John notes, that is less a player as you head west and has less correlation from the Plateau westward.  Though, I could make a pretty good case that middle and western Tenn have done decently well w/ the La Nina pattern.  Interestingly, east Knoxville and the Foothills are probably is in the same boat as TRI.

TYS during good winters: 8-10" (frequency of that about 1 out of every 2-3 years currently) w/ higher lollipops depending on local

TYS during lousy winters 2-4"

It just seems to want to snow in Knoxville of late.  That is weird to say from a scientific standpoint, bit it is kinda true.

Well hopefully I'm good luck for Knoxville- I remember that March 2022 snowstorm and being a bit sad thinking I might never see that kind of storm again here... and then January 2024 came around haha. I did notice that the tri-cities seemed to get the short end of the stick these past few winters despite averaging more snow than Knoxville, it's really interesting how the shape of the valley influences which storm types are better/worse for which areas, despite how geographically close TRI/TYS/CHA all are. Blount/Sevier counties got warm nosed in January 2024, but they also get some solid accumulation during NW flow events while in West Knox I've usually seen flurries or a dusting at best from those. Chattanooga seems like a snow lovers nightmare where anything that can go wrong will go wrong, I was glad they finally got to cash in last January. I remember the post you're referencing about the natural spillway for cold air into the valley and it makes sense that it would work in favor of the Knox area.

This might be a dumb question, but do you think that there's a correlation between the very strong pacific jet stream that we've seen in recent winters and the shift in snow between the tri-cities and Knoxville? As a novice, it seems like Nor'Easters and Apps runners/Great Lake cutters are less common than I remember from the 2002-2010 period when I followed the weather more closely - but sliders that move west to east and weaker storms that ride along a frontal boundary are more common, and Knoxville has cashed in when one of them is timed correctly with a shot of cold air that briefly buckles the flow. Would the ideal storm track for TRI be something that is more south to north, so that a strengthening storm east of the valley would bring winds from the north?

[WintryMixmaster]

7 hours ago, John1122 said:

For Knoxville, location is important. North Knoxville will generally do better than other spots, it's generally more elevated. 

Also, in addition to key missing data, the airport isn't in Knoxville really. It's SE of Knoxville in an extremely densely paved area. It's warmer and records less snow than folks do even a few miles away now. 

That is a good point, I forget how different the weather can be between downtown Knoxville and TYS (January 2024 had a sharp cutoff for accumulations right by the airport too). My first 3 winters here were spent in Hardin Valley and I remember being jealous of the Powell/Fountain City area posters that often had just a bit more elevation and were a bit further northeast. Last winter was my first winter in the Concord/Northshore town center area and I'm dreading the inevitable storm where Hardin Valley gets snow and I see nothing

[John1122]

I was looking up ENSO years and not surprisingly, I've started finding conflicting data. The PSL NOAA site now says that 1995-96 was ENSO neutral. I've always known it to be a Nina. It has several other conflicting instances as well.

[Carvers Gap]

11 hours ago, John1122 said:

I was looking up ENSO years and not surprisingly, I've started finding conflicting data. The PSL NOAA site now says that 1995-96 was ENSO neutral. I've always known it to be a Nina. It has several other conflicting instances as well.

Oh, man.  That isn't good.  I have the same recollection of that year. 

[Carvers Gap]

22 hours ago, WintryMixmaster said:

Well hopefully I'm good luck for Knoxville- I remember that March 2022 snowstorm and being a bit sad thinking I might never see that kind of storm again here... and then January 2024 came around haha. I did notice that the tri-cities seemed to get the short end of the stick these past few winters despite averaging more snow than Knoxville, it's really interesting how the shape of the valley influences which storm types are better/worse for which areas, despite how geographically close TRI/TYS/CHA all are. Blount/Sevier counties got warm nosed in January 2024, but they also get some solid accumulation during NW flow events while in West Knox I've usually seen flurries or a dusting at best from those. Chattanooga seems like a snow lovers nightmare where anything that can go wrong will go wrong, I was glad they finally got to cash in last January. I remember the post you're referencing about the natural spillway for cold air into the valley and it makes sense that it would work in favor of the Knox area.

This might be a dumb question, but do you think that there's a correlation between the very strong pacific jet stream that we've seen in recent winters and the shift in snow between the tri-cities and Knoxville? As a novice, it seems like Nor'Easters and Apps runners/Great Lake cutters are less common than I remember from the 2002-2010 period when I followed the weather more closely - but sliders that move west to east and weaker storms that ride along a frontal boundary are more common, and Knoxville has cashed in when one of them is timed correctly with a shot of cold air that briefly buckles the flow. Would the ideal storm track for TRI be something that is more south to north, so that a strengthening storm east of the valley would bring winds from the north?

I tend to lean towards the idea that AMO cycles flipped around 1990.  We are due for it to reverse.  As John noted last winter, there is some debate as to whether the AMO actually exists.  I think the big change is that we finished a -AMO cycle during the late 1900s, and that greatly changed our weather in E TN.  We also really need the -NAO in E TN to have decent shots at Nor'Easters.  That is a different answer for the Plateau westward where the PDA/PNA ridge complex matters tremendously.  There were some crazy strong El Nino's during the 90s.  Right now we are in a pattern of La Ninas which I believe is driving the weather pattern here and placing the default NA trough over the Mountain West during many winters.  Eventually, the pattern will change to something entirely different.  La Nina is not great for the coast.  It is weird, but TRI is kind of linked to DC's pattern.  When it is snowy there, it is often snowy here.  

TRI generally does poorly in La Nada's and moderate to strong La Nina's.   Strong El Ninos are torch city as well.  We also have a wicked bad rain shadow here.  Lately, downsloping over the eastern Foothills has been a problem.  We are feast or famine up here.  We generally do well w/ inland runners, sliders, NW flow, and a once in a decade setup where a low stalls/forms in the lee of the Apps. But trajectory of each system matters greatly.  A slider with nearly perfect east-west trajectory is no good here.  We need it to bend NE just a hair.  The missing piece during recent winters are Alberta clippers.  I believe the lack of clippers is probably directly correlated to the lowering snow totals.  

Joe Bastardi (who I like when he talks historical weather patterns) says that it snows where it wants to snow.  During some winters, it just snows more here regardless of the pattern.  He also notes there is a connection between late season cold and late hurricane action.  One other JB note is that if a place has a rainy fall, that is generally where cold will try to setup.  Those are fairly sound observations which have merit.  

Also as John notes, we generally hit big winters in cycles.  

[Carvers Gap]

On 8/8/2025 at 8:59 PM, IndTenn said:

It is closer to Maryville.  The terminal is 3.5 miles to downtown Maryville and 11.5 miles to downtown Knoxville.

That also means the airport deals with downslope winds that Knoxville and western burbs don't see nearly as much.  

[Carvers Gap]

If you want a really good illustration of what happens when there is no gap in a mountain range, then the Bitterroot Valley is your huckleberry.  Take some time and look at the annual snow totals for Hamilton and also at their winter temps.  Then, look at Missoula's.  Different worlds and only about 30mins apart.  We nearly moved here, so I had done a lot of research about the valley.  They used to grow apples in that valley.  It is a true banana belt.  The downlsope winds keep it warm for most of the winter.  There are few ways for cold air masses to get south into the valley.  Just of this area gets bitterly cold during winter.  The eastern TN Valley is similar to this in many ways.