2025-2026 Winter Speculation Thread

[Met1985]

My opinion at this point is we have a lot of uncertainty still remaining and obviously all yall pros on here know that. 

The above maps looks good but at this point im very skeptical.  The PDO just hit a 170 year old record at -4 but what does that say about the pac? Will that go back up? 

I think we have a lot of volatility on the board also and a lot of unknowns with the global climate and weather pattern. 

I do agree that a more neutral ENSO is best for us and our general areas. Too much blocking is bad, and not enough blocking is bad and depending on thread the needle situations are always either great or heartbreaking.  I have seen that the global temperature from last year to this year has cooled significantly in the big scheme of things. So that has to be a good sign right? 

I'm definitely looking forward to this winter and seeing how it plays out. I know already the first of August has been an absolute treat. Haven't hit 80 yet at the house. I'm hoping we see a bit of an early start to Fall or at least an early cold blast. 

[WintryMixmaster]

Hi everyone! I've lived in Knoxville for the past 4 years and I've read this board during every snowstorm - growing up, I got into weather watching Nor'Easters hit (and sometimes miss) my backyard, slowly learning more about the model strengths and weaknesses and making forecasts for myself. I had forgotten much of my weather knowledge from back in the day but I always appreciated the insights and passion from everyone on this forum as I've revived my own passion for weather. I've learned a lot about what ingredients we need here to get snow here, and how much harder it is to thread that needle than I'm used to!

For those of you who have lived in East Tennessee for much longer than I have, I'm curious about what you consider to be the "average" snowfall for Knoxville. I think I've seen it brought up that some of the very old TYS data has some missing/inaccurate totals, but online I've seen both 4.6 and 6.0 inches reported as the average. Do those seem about right? Sorry if this is a bit off-topic, I think it just gives me some useful perspective for the winter speculation.

[Carvers Gap]

9 hours ago, WintryMixmaster said:

Hi everyone! I've lived in Knoxville for the past 4 years and I've read this board during every snowstorm - growing up, I got into weather watching Nor'Easters hit (and sometimes miss) my backyard, slowly learning more about the model strengths and weaknesses and making forecasts for myself. I had forgotten much of my weather knowledge from back in the day but I always appreciated the insights and passion from everyone on this forum as I've revived my own passion for weather. I've learned a lot about what ingredients we need here to get snow here, and how much harder it is to thread that needle than I'm used to!

For those of you who have lived in East Tennessee for much longer than I have, I'm curious about what you consider to be the "average" snowfall for Knoxville. I think I've seen it brought up that some of the very old TYS data has some missing/inaccurate totals, but online I've seen both 4.6 and 6.0 inches reported as the average. Do those seem about right? Sorry if this is a bit off-topic, I think it just gives me some useful perspective for the winter speculation.

Welcome aboard.  I lived in Knoxville during all of the 70s.  I had no idea how good that decade was at the time.  During the 70s it often started snowing during late December and usually lasted into February quite consistently.  Snow droughts weren't even really anything I thought about, though there were certainly some mild winters embedded during that decade.  I also lived there during the 93 blizzard, the 93-94 winter, and 95-96 winter.  The 90s did feature some snowless winters or nearly snowless in Knoxville.  Those are easily the worst winters of my lifetime, but again, with some great winters embedded.  

Knoxville has done really well recently(2020s to clarify), even better than TRI during many winters.  I do think that notch along the Plateau funnels precip into the Knoxville area - someone (maybe @TellicoWx) had a great post last winter about it.  At TRI, we have no such relief...just a solid Plateau wall to our West.  At first I was a bit skeptical that the Knoxville notch helped.  But when out West, you can see where openings in the mountain ranges (which lie west to east) have higher snow totals.  For example, Alpine(WY) is much snowier than Jackson(WY), but Alpine is at a lower elevation.  However, Alpine sits right in one of those notches if you look on Google Earth.  Places in Star Valley to the south have less say in Afton.  Afton is at higher elevation - but no opening in the mountain for snow to reach it easily.

So, long story short.  I think Knoxville does really well during certain NW flow events(almost wnw flow events), during snow storms where the fetch is from the SE(but limited warm nose), and they do incredibly well with sliders.  Sliders seem to be our best snow makers these days, and that would also explain TRI getting less snow during recent winters.  I would say "for now" that 4-6" is about right for Knoxville, BUT recent trends definitely have Knoxville trending better.  I would guess there are places in the Knoxville which are averaging 10+" during good winters recently.  At one point during the 2010s and 2000s, I can remember on this forum where Knoxville would get very little compared to TRI.  Recently, Knoxville has had two really big snows.  I do think the sliders in conjunction w/ that notch where I-40 comes into town is the big contributor.  Even during those 197-s winters as a kid, I knew the best snows usually went from Memphis to Knoxville.  Still true today.

I also think the 2020s and late 2010s cold shots, though short lived, have produced an environment where Knoxville kind of is in the sweet spot.  Gulf moisture interact w/ the cold air from the North at about Knoxville's latitude.  South of that, no luck.  North of that, too cold.  Again 4-6" is probably right as a generality, but I wouldn't be surprised for Knoxville to surpass that average during some(not all) of the upcoming winters if trends persist.  I think this winter has a chance to be good for TYS.

Here is a TRI note....The early 2000s didn't have a tone of snow here.  As this century has progressed, small snows have become more frequent as have some the frequency of short-lived, brutal cold snaps.  Big snows have been less.  Why?  I suspect moderate to strong La Ninas are the likely cause along w the aforementioned PDO by met85.  We have had a load of La Ninas since 2016 or so.  In NE TN we really need a weak ENSO state but not neutral and definitely not moderate to strong.  As John notes, that is less a player as you head west and has less correlation from the Plateau westward.  Though, I could make a pretty good case that middle and western Tenn have done decently well w/ the La Nina pattern.  Interestingly, east Knoxville and the Foothills are probably is in the same boat as TRI.

TYS during good winters: 8-10" (frequency of that about 1 out of every 2-3 years currently) w/ higher lollipops depending on local

TYS during lousy winters 2-4"

It just seems to want to snow in Knoxville of late.  That is weird to say from a scientific standpoint, bit it is kinda true.

[Daniel Boone]

14 hours ago, Met1985 said:

My opinion at this point is we have a lot of uncertainty still remaining and obviously all yall pros on here know that. 

The above maps looks good but at this point im very skeptical.  The PDO just hit a 170 year old record at -4 but what does that say about the pac? Will that go back up? 

I think we have a lot of volatility on the board also and a lot of unknowns with the global climate and weather pattern. 

I do agree that a more neutral ENSO is best for us and our general areas. Too much blocking is bad, and not enough blocking is bad and depending on thread the needle situations are always either great or heartbreaking.  I have seen that the global temperature from last year to this year has cooled significantly in the big scheme of things. So that has to be a good sign right? 

I'm definitely looking forward to this winter and seeing how it plays out. I know already the first of August has been an absolute treat. Haven't hit 80 yet at the house. I'm hoping we see a bit of an early start to Fall or at least an early cold blast. 

Yeah, that PDO is bad as of now. Last year at this juncture it was low but not this low and it managed to rise rapidly in November. That helped irt last Winter without a doubt.