June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike

[Sundog]

Euro has a seabreeze on Monday afternoon but torches us badly on Tuesday afternoon with temps near 100 at 8PM still. 

[SACRUS]

 

Look to get through June with no Tropical activity or systems on the Atlantic side

 

[jm1220]

27 minutes ago, Sundog said:

0z Euro for Monday afternoon. You don't see winds literally facing eachother NW from one direction and SE from the other often:

I have to think there will be daily seabreezes with such a contrast with the mid 60s water. The hot spot might actually be where the compressional heating is worst which could be around the Southern State Parkway area or just north. Since NW is a downslope direction it’ll definitely heat up for everyone though. 

[bluewave]

The unusual thing about the coming heatwave is how long the 500mb heights remain in the 594dm to 600dm range. In the past these ridges have generally lasted a day or two with 500mb heights this high. Now the models have us in these near to record levels from Sunday into Tuesday. Getting the heat to build for 3 days increases the chance that some spots across the region could approach 105° before the heatwave ends. 

 

 

 

[nycwinter]

it is beautiful out this morning i saw quite a few people wearing hoodies and jackets..

[Sundog]

1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

it is beautiful out this morning i saw quite a few people wearing hoodies and jackets..

People in insane asylums tend to wear jackets

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, lee59 said:

Was in D.C. area this afternoon, numerous trees down and some unfortunately on cars that were on the roadway. Meanwhile back home 88 for a high.

People are worried about high heat causing power outages, I think it's pretty obvious the most power outages are caused by severe weather like we had yesterday.  Thousands of homes without power because of those storms and lots of damage, large trees down!

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, Sundog said:

People in insane asylums tend to wear jackets

straightjackets 

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Sundog said:

Can anyone explain this Monday afternoon look on the 6z ICON:

It's not just an afternoon seabreeze, the wind was off the ocean the whole day on the model, this image is from 2PM. 

I love those  martian dust storm colors

[Sundog]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

I love those  martian dust storm colors

That's actually 0z, ICON is a bad model so it looks totally different at 6z and i deleted it

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The unusual thing about the coming heatwave is how long the 500mb heights remain in the 594dm to 600dm range. In the past these ridges have generally lasted a day or two with 500mb heights this high. Now the models have us in these near to record levels from Sunday into Tuesday. Getting the heat to build for 3 days increases the chance that some spots across the region could approach 105° before the heatwave ends. 

 

 

 

Isn't this what happened in the 1944-1955 when we had those 7-12 day heatwaves with 95+ and 100+ temperatures?

I know you're all about climate change, but that was a cyclic pattern we had from 1944-1955 and which repeated itself from 1991-2002, so maybe that cycle is returning?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

I have to think there will be daily seabreezes with such a contrast with the mid 60s water. The hot spot might actually be where the compressional heating is worst which could be around the Southern State Parkway area or just north. Since NW is a downslope direction it’ll definitely heat up for everyone though. 

In my experience the compressional heating will be down here near Sunrise Highway.  The contrast of the water temperatures didn't make much difference in April 2002 or 2010 either.  Long Beach might be in the 80s while Valley Stream is 100+  We made it past 90 easily on a SW wind over a week ago. A NW wind will be at least 10 degrees hotter here.  No sea breeze before 4 pm and by then we will already have exceeded 100.  On days like this our temperatures rise as quickly as Newark's does (notice how JFK's hottest days and years match up well with EWR's) and we usually exceed 100 by noon or 1 pm at the latest.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

Euro has a seabreeze on Monday afternoon but torches us badly on Tuesday afternoon with temps near 100 at 8PM still. 

thats absolutely amazing and what I'm hoping for.

It's going to be very hot, let's make some history!

[SACRUS]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Isn't this what happened in the 1944-1955 when we had those 7-12 day heatwaves with 95+ and 100+ temperatures?

I know you're all about climate change, but that was a cyclic pattern we had from 1944-1955 and which repeated itself from 1991-2002, so maybe that cycle is returning?

 

We have had heat domes the last few years, the majority went north and caused an onshore flow at times.  Some of the more impressing heat domes were the 2013 ridge backing in and hooking with the continental ridge, the 2011 ridge and the 2001 early August ridge.  Im sure the years you mentioned had similar heat domes to this and the 2012, 1988, 93 ones.  

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The operational ECMWF and GFS are now in good agreement that daily record temperatures will likely be challenged or broken during June 23-24 across the New York City region. June monthly records could be challenged, as well.

EFI for June 23:

EFI for June 24:

Select Data:

some of our heavy hitting summers in that list like 1949 and 1966 and 2010 !!

lol it's funny to see a record at Central Park from 1888 not having to do with the big blizzard.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

We have had heat domes the last few years, the majority went north and caused an onshore flow at times.  Some of the more impressing heat domes were the 2013 ridge backing in and hooking with the continental ridge, the 2011 ridge and the 2001 early August ridge.  Im sure the years you mentioned had similar heat domes to this and the 2012, 1988, 93 ones.  

Yes 2013 had our last 7+ day heatwave (at NYC). The 2010-2013 period was more like what we had from 1991-2002 and prior to that from 1944-1955.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 98 (2012)
NYC: 98 (1923)
LGA: 98 (2012)
JFK: 94 (2012)


Lows:


EWR: 52 (1956)
NYC: 49 (1914)
LGA: 55 (1959)
JFK: 55 (2005)


Historical:

 

1682 - A major tornado ripped through southwestern Connecticut, passing through Stratford, Milford, and New Haven, and then into Long Island Sound. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1921 - Circle, MT, received 11.5 inches of rain in 24 hours, a record for the state. The town of Circle received a total of 16.79 inches of rain that month to establish a rainfall record for any town in Montana for any month of the year. (The Weather Channel)

1928 - A farmer near Greensburg, KS, looked up into the heart of a tornado. He described its walls as rotating clouds lit with constant flashes of lightning and a strong gassy odor with a screaming, hissing sound . (The Weather Channel)

1964 - A squall line producing large hail swept through central Illinois. A second squall line moved through during the early morning hours of the 21st, and a third one moved through shortly after dawn. The series of hailstorms caused nine million dollars damage. Hailstones as large as grapefruit caused heavy damage to trees, utility lines, crops and buildings. The thunderstorms also produced as much as five inches of rain in an eight hour period. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Thunderstorms prevailed east of the Rockies, producing severe weather in the Central High Plains Region. Thunderstorms spawned four tornadoes in Colorado, and produced wind gusts to 70 mph at Goodland, KS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thirty-eight cities in the central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 97 degrees at Flint, MI, and 104 degrees at Chicago, IL, equalled records for the month of June. Thunderstorms in North Dakota produced baseball size hail near Kief, and wind gusts to 100 mph near McGregor. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - An early morning thunderstorm produced wind gusts to 61 mph at Pierre, SD, and the hot thunderstorm winds raised the temperature from 86 degrees at midnight to 96 degrees by 1 AM, and 104 degrees by 2 AM. Butte, MT, and Yellowstone Park, WY, reported snow that afternoon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989:A meteorological "hot flash" hit Pierre. Descending air from collapsing thunderstorms caused the temperature in Pierre to warm from 86 degrees at midnight to 96 at one a.m. and to 104 at 2 a.m. Pierre's record high for the date of 105 degrees in 1974.

2001: Large hail driven by strong thunderstorm winds raked Denver International and front-range airports. Wind gusting to 54 mph along with hail as large as 2 inches in diameter punched at least 14 thousand holes and cracks in the flat roofs of several buildings at Denver International Airport. Also, 93 planes and hundreds of cars were damaged. About 100 flights had to be canceled stranding 1500 travelers. The Airport was completely shut down for about 20 minutes. The storm also damaged ground avoidance radar used to track planes on the ground to prevent collisions. Damage was estimated at 10 million dollars not counting the cost to the 93 airliners. The storm moved south and struck Watkins Colorado with hail as large as 2 1/2 inches in diameter and winds gusting to 60 mph. 

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 98 (2012)
NYC: 98 (1923)
LGA: 98 (2012)
JFK: 94 (2012)


Lows:


EWR: 52 (1956)
NYC: 49 (1914)
LGA: 55 (1959)
JFK: 55 (2005)


Historical:

 

1682 - A major tornado ripped through southwestern Connecticut, passing through Stratford, Milford, and New Haven, and then into Long Island Sound. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

 

Tony wow, so maybe 2012 will be an analog to this summer? 2010-2013 had summers similar to what we might be about to embark on....

1682 tornado, I wonder if that would have been recorded as an F3? There certainly were more strong tornados in this region during that era, you listed 2 for yesterday also.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, mjr said:

Apart from time series comparisons is the issue of comparing NYC weather and climate with other locations and regions and also describing NYC summer weather characteristics to the general public. In the interest of simplicity, summer weather is frequently measured by the number of days which exceed 90 degrees while other factors, such as high minimum temperatures, are basically ignored. Recently, a top meteorologist at a leading weather service provider was giving his summer forecast and it was based on the number of 90 degree days. If I remember correctly he used 16 days as average for NYC while the corresponding figures for other cities were 14 for Boston, 30 for Philly and 40 for DC. While it is certainly true that PHL and DCA have higher summer maxima, this gives the misimpression that overall summer conditions for NYC (usually interpreted as Manhattan) and Boston are largely indistinguishable. Of course you can blame the one dimensional criterion that he used but the thermometer siting is certainly a nontrivial factor. Just as an aside, when comparing NYC to other locations, an overwhelming number of observations are taken in airport or urban environments so maybe concrete is a more useful comparison.

 

Number of 90 degree days are what defines *hot*

You can have a very warm summer with elevated minimums and with a high average departure without it being a hot summer.  

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 98 (2012)
NYC: 98 (1923)
LGA: 98 (2012)
JFK: 94 (2012)


Lows:


EWR: 52 (1956)
NYC: 49 (1914)
LGA: 55 (1959)
JFK: 55 (2005)


Historical:

 

1682 - A major tornado ripped through southwestern Connecticut, passing through Stratford, Milford, and New Haven, and then into Long Island Sound. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

 

Tony wow, so maybe 2012 will be an analog to this summer? 2010-2013 had summers similar to what we might be about to embark on....

1682 tornado, I wonder if that would have been recorded as an F3? There certainly were more strong tornados in this region during that era, you listed 2 for yesterday also.

 

1928 - A farmer near Greensburg, KS, looked up into the heart of a tornado. He described its walls as rotating clouds lit with constant flashes of lightning and a strong gassy odor with a screaming, hissing sound . (The Weather Channel)

 

I wonder what caused that *strong gassy odor* inside the tornado..... fertilizer combusting?

[Wxoutlooksblog]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

0z Euro for Monday afternoon. You don't see winds literally facing eachother NW from one direction and SE from the other often:

You also don't see 582dm thicknesses over NYC often.

WX/PT

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

You also don't see 582dm thicknesses over NYC often.

WX/PT

There's a possibility our airports might have to shut down from extreme heat.....

[SACRUS]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Records:

 

Tony wow, so maybe 2012 will be an analog to this summer? 2010-2013 had summers similar to what we might be about to embark on....

 

 

 

I am not sure about 2012 being good reference for this year - we'll see.  I was thinking more along the lines of a warmer 2024 and perhaps evolving towards years that favor a warmer-hotter August / early Aug - early Sep.  Thus current ridge may throw a wrench - its a crap shoot.  

[bluewave]

32 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Isn't this what happened in the 1944-1955 when we had those 7-12 day heatwaves with 95+ and 100+ temperatures?

I know you're all about climate change, but that was a cyclic pattern we had from 1944-1955 and which repeated itself from 1991-2002, so maybe that cycle is returning?

 

No. The 500mb heights were lower back then. We just set the all-time 500 mb height record in June 2024 at 599dm for our area when we had the 100° heat last June. This time the magnitude of the heat and the duration of the ridge will be more impressive. Those older 100° heatwaves weren’t as long as the one experienced in July 2022 which ran 5 days.

 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 100 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

	5	2022-07-20 through 2022-07-24
	4	2010-07-04 through 2010-07-07
-	4	1993-07-07 through 1993-07-10
-	4	1953-08-28 through 1953-08-31
	3	2011-07-21 through 2011-07-23
-	3	2006-08-01 through 2006-08-03
-	3	2001-08-07 through 2001-08-09
-	3	1966-07-02 through 1966-07-04
-	3	1949-08-09 through 1949-08-11
-	3	1949-07-28 through 1949-07-30
	2	2021-06-29 through 2021-06-30
-	2	2013-07-18 through 2013-07-19
-	2	2012-07-17 through 2012-07-18
-	2	1999-07-05 through 1999-07-06
-	2	1993-08-27 through 1993-08-28
-	2	1991-07-20 through 1991-07-21
-	2	1988-07-16 through 1988-07-17
-	2	1988-07-10 through 1988-07-11
-	2	1980-07-20 through 1980-07-21
-	2	1955-07-22 through 1955-07-23
-	2	1949-07-03 through 1949-07-04
-	2	1944-08-04 through 1944-08-05
-	2	1943-06-25 through 1943-06-26
-	2	1936-07-09 through 1936-07-10

[steve392]

34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

People are worried about high heat causing power outages, I think it's pretty obvious the most power outages are caused by severe weather like we had yesterday.  Thousands of homes without power because of those storms and lots of damage, large trees down!

While yes, wires down/blown transformers from wind/tree damage will take out power.  A lot of times that will get repaired and power is back on in a few hours.  With the heat i think its more of a an issue because the huge load being put on the system that even after the power goes out and is restored, the load for power is still present and could just cause the power to go out again and again.  

[TheClimateChanger]

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Number of 90 degree days are what defines *hot*

You can have a very warm summer with elevated minimums and with a high average departure without it being a hot summer.  

You can have 90F with dewpoints in the 40s and 50s, and that's not hot at all. Wet bulb is the superior measure IMO, and I bet the elevated summer minima years have higher wet bulb averages than the years with high maxima but more typical minima. Above about 87-88F, it's almost certainly fatal.

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

You can have 90F with dewpoints in the 40s and 50s, and that's not hot at all. Wet bulb is the superior measure IMO, and I bet the elevated summer minima years have higher wet bulb averages than the years with high maxima but more typical minima. Above about 87-88F, it's almost certainly fatal.

Thats my favorite kind of heat.... the specific definition of hot that the NWS uses is number of 90 degree days and they even rank summers based on that on their page.

Top heatwaves are ranked by number of days over 90 consecutively and hot summers are ranked by number of 90 degree days overall.

No argument about the lethal quality of high dew points, thats why I have argued that removing water vapor from the atmosphere is much more important than removing CO2.  We can remove water vapor from the atmosphere and make pure drinking water out of it.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Thats my favorite kind of heat.... the specific definition of hot that the NWS uses is number of 90 degree days and they even rank summers based on that on their page.

Top heatwaves are ranked by number of days over 90 consecutively and hot summers are ranked by number of 90 degree days overall.

 

I don't think the NWS uses a specific temperature occurrence to rank summers. They track days over 90F, as they do lows and highs under 32F and lows under 0F in the wintertime, but seasonal rankings have always been by the average mean temperature (average of maximum and minimum).

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, steve392 said:

While yes, wires down/blown transformers from wind/tree damage will take out power.  A lot of times that will get repaired and power is back on in a few hours.  With the heat i think its more of a an issue because the huge load being put on the system that even after the power goes out and is restored, the load for power is still present and could just cause the power to go out again and again.  

I remember we had a Con Edison controversy (what else is new lol) when this happened a few years ago and the power went out in specific neighborhoods and not in other neighborhoods.  I think that was in July 2019 when we had back to back 99 degree days with a heat index of 117 (at JFK). On a weekend too.

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, TheClimateChanger said:

I don't think the NWS uses a specific temperature occurrence to rank summers. They track days over 90F, as they do lows and highs under 32F and lows under 0F in the wintertime, but seasonal rankings have always been by the average mean temperature (average of maximum and minimum).

Average temperature defines warmth but not hot.  Here are the rankings I found:

By the way, AI agrees with me and it seems that number of hot days correlates with average temperatures too.

Here is AI's answer:

What is the hottest summer on record in New York City?

 

 

AI Overview

 

The hottest summer on record in New York City was in 2010, with an average temperature of 77.8 degrees. This summer was hotter than the previous record of 77.3 degrees set in 1966,

 

NYC has had a warming trend for years but there hasn’t been as many super hot days. In fact the 12 year gap between 100 degrees is the longest since 1881 - 1898 (and the 2nd longest in recorded history).

Last year, despite being the warmest in NYC history by a significant margin (.6 warmer than any other year) the high was only 93.

Here is the hottest summers page for NYC (AI agrees with me

AI Overview

 

New York City has experienced some extremely hot summers, with the hottest ones often occurring in the late 20th and early 21st centuries. The hottest summers since 1869, based on data from the National Weather Service, have all been since 1960, with 2010 being the hottest on record according to TypePad. The summer of 1966 had the hottest average monthly high temperature, while July 1999 had the hottest average daily temperature. 

 

Here's a breakdown of New York City's hottest summers: 

 

• 2010: This summer is often cited as the hottest, with an average high temperature of 86 degrees Fahrenheit between June and August according to Yahoo.
• 1966: While 2010 had the hottest overall summer, 1966 holds the record for the hottest average monthly high temperature according to TypePad.
• 1999: This summer had the hottest average daily temperature in July.
• 1993: This year had the most 90-degree days during the summer months (35 days).
• Other Notable Summers: 1983 and 1991 also rank among the hottest summers in NYC's history.

I also use Typepad for both summer and winter records, this site is a veritable bonanza of information.

https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2012/07/revisiting-new-york-citys-hottest-summers-.html

 

• New York's five hottest summers (since 1869) have all occurred since 1960: 2010, 1966, 1993, 1983 and 1999.  The fact that just one of the years is from this century may surprise some since these years were so warm worldwide.  

• The summer of 1966, New York's second hottest on record, has the honor of having the hottest average monthly high temperature.  Although July 1999 was the hottest month on record based on mean daily temperature (average of the day's high and low), the average high in July 1966 was hotter than July 1999 by 0.1 degree, 90.3° vs 90.2°.  However, July 1999's average low was 3.5 degrees warmer (72.6° vs 69.1°) and that's what easily put it on top.      

• Although 1991 and 1993 had the most 90-degree days for a calendar year, each with 39, 1993 had the most during the summertime period.  It had 35, followed by 1966 with 34 and 2010 with 32.  1991 had 31, ranking fourth.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/heatwaves

This is the NWS Heatwave page for NYC

 

National Weather Service New York, NY NYC Heatwaves Page

Weather.gov > New York, NY > National Weather Service New York, NY NYC Heatwaves Page

• Current Hazards
• Current Conditions
• Radar
• Forecasts
• Rivers and Lakes
• Climate and Past Weather
• Local Programs

Longest NYC Heatwaves

Longest Heat Waves - 90 degrees + in a row (through March 10)
Days	Dates	Temperatures
12	August 24 - Sept 4, 1953	91,91,91,94,98,99,98,100,97,102,94,90
11	July 23 - August 2, 1999	92,97,97,93,96,97,93,92,90,98,90
10	July 7 - 16, 1993 August 4 - 13, 1896	98,100,101,102,97,94,94,91,90,90 90,94,92,97,95,98,94,96,93,90
9	August 11 - 19, 2002 July 13 - 21, 1977 July 6 - 14, 1966 July 5 - 13, 1944	92,96,98,95,92,93,94,94,94 93,92,96,98,97,100, 102,92,104 91,93,91,91,91,94,99,101,95 93,94,91,94,92,91,93,93,91
8	July 29 - August 5, 2002 August 2 - 9, 1980 August 28 - Sept 4, 1973 August 10 - 17, 1944 June 26 - July 3, 1901	96, 95, 95, 96, 97, 90, 92, 91 91, 92, 91, 94, 93, 94, 96, 95 98, 95, 98, 94, 95, 94, 96, 93 97, 102, 97, 96, 95, 95, 96, 95 91,91,93,95,95,100,100,94
7	July 29 - August 4, 1995 August 9 - 15, 1998 July 15 - 21, 1991 July 12 - 18, 1983 July 7 - 13, 1981 August 1 - 7, 1955 July 15 - 21, 1953	93, 93, 91, 94, 96, 90,96 93, 93, 95, 94, 96, 99, 97 90, 93, 96, 99, 96, 100, 102 94, 93, 94, 98, 96, 93, 97 94, 95, 96, 93, 94, 94, 93 98, 100, 90, 95, 100, 97, 93 92, 97, 100, 101, 91, 90, 90

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

No. The 500mb heights were lower back then. We just set the all-time 500 mb height record in June 2024 at 599dm for our area when we had the 100° heat last June. This time the magnitude of the heat and the duration of the ridge will be more impressive. Those older 100° heatwaves weren’t as long as the one experienced in July 2022 which ran 5 days.

 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 100 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

	5	2022-07-20 through 2022-07-24
	4	2010-07-04 through 2010-07-07
-	4	1993-07-07 through 1993-07-10
-	4	1953-08-28 through 1953-08-31
	3	2011-07-21 through 2011-07-23
-	3	2006-08-01 through 2006-08-03
-	3	2001-08-07 through 2001-08-09
-	3	1966-07-02 through 1966-07-04
-	3	1949-08-09 through 1949-08-11
-	3	1949-07-28 through 1949-07-30
	2	2021-06-29 through 2021-06-30
-	2	2013-07-18 through 2013-07-19
-	2	2012-07-17 through 2012-07-18
-	2	1999-07-05 through 1999-07-06
-	2	1993-08-27 through 1993-08-28
-	2	1991-07-20 through 1991-07-21
-	2	1988-07-16 through 1988-07-17
-	2	1988-07-10 through 1988-07-11
-	2	1980-07-20 through 1980-07-21
-	2	1955-07-22 through 1955-07-23
-	2	1949-07-03 through 1949-07-04
-	2	1944-08-04 through 1944-08-05
-	2	1943-06-25 through 1943-06-26
-	2	1936-07-09 through 1936-07-10

July 1993 had more 100+ days and the 100+ extreme heatwave it had in July was more extreme than the one in 2022 (it hit 105 the all time record at that time twice back then) and the extreme heat was much more widespread in 1993 as it covered the entire area-- NYC hit 100+ three days in a row and JFK two days in a row.  It seems like we need higher heights for such extreme temperatures than we did back then (maybe it was easier to be hotter back then because the amount of moisture in the air was lower back then.)