June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Either we have siting standards or we don't.

A weather station is supposed to be in an open area, not underneath trees and overgrowth.

 

I'm 100% convinced even in an open area it wouldn't be as hot as it was during the 30s-50s period. Why? Because the dryness of the ground matters more.

 

[Sundog]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Nope, but I'm not convinced that measuring in a concrete environment gives scientifically comparable results.  And it's far more scientifically reasonable to assume that the rainier climate is keeping the maxes from rising as much as the mins are.  Climate change means different things for different places and obviously affects summer much more differently than winter.  No reason for alarmist talk of widespread 100+ numbers which obviously aren't happening.

 

If your whole area is covered in concrete, then why would concrete be a problem for your thermometer? The whole point of a thermometer is to give you an accurate representation of the temperatures you are going to experience. 

[Sundog]

24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm 100% convinced even in an open area it wouldn't be as hot as it was during the 30s-50s period. Why? Because the dryness of the ground matters more.

 

Yea but that is a different matter. A weather station is supposed to be sited properly. And for the climate change deniers, it's not that I am worried about any agenda. The park is simply not sited properly, period. 

In fact some of the fastest warming stations are in completely rural locations, that is not the point. JFK should be not be getting hotter than Central Park with a SW wind, ESPECIALLY in June. If people care about data integrity they would have a problem with Central Park's temps. There is no conspiracy.

[Sundog]

12z GFS maintains the "cooler" look with temps for the city on Tuesday in the upper 80s to near 90 in the city because of an ocean wind component and near 100 in eastern New England.

[qg_omega]

From 109 to 88, this is why talking about temps 10 days out usually fails.

[Sundog]

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

From 109 to 88, this is why we talking about temps 10 days out usually fails.

To be fair you're comparing the Euro to the GFS

Euro is still a heat blast, just that it's now 102 instead of 108 haha

Let's see what it shows in a couple hours, it's definitely trending "cooler"

[Sundog]

Either way dewpoints are nasty in the upper 60 to low 70s

[nycwinter]

when everyone was talking about temps over 100 i did say those temps wont verify so a feather in my cap.

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Yea but that is a different matter. A weather station is supposed to be sited properly. And for the climate change deniers, it's not that I am worried about any agenda. The park is simply not sited properly, period. 

In fact some of the fastest warming stations are in completely rural locations, that is not the point. JFK should be not be getting hotter than Central Park with a SW wind, ESPECIALLY in June. If people care about data integrity they would have a problem with Central Park's temps. There is no conspiracy.

They should locate those sensors to the Great Lawn, unfortunately they are more worried about them being stolen than they are about data integrity.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, nycwinter said:

when everyone was talking about temps over 100 i did say those temps wont verify so a feather in my cap.

Maybe the Yankees will finally start scoring runs again when the weather changes.

[Sundog]

Just now, nycwinter said:

when everyone was talking about temps over 100 i did say those temps wont verify so a feather in my cap.

Let's wait and see what the Euro shows, I wouldn't lock any specific solution in yet

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, Sundog said:

To be fair you're comparing the Euro to the GFS

Euro is still a heat blast, just that it's now 102 instead of 108 haha

Let's see what it shows in a couple hours, it's definitely trending "cooler"

This is like models cutting snowfall amounts, we all know where it's going and the trend isn't our friend lol.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Sundog said:

Let's wait and see what the Euro shows, I wouldn't lock any specific solution in yet

Either way the web traffic on here is much higher when a potential heatwave is brewing vs boring 70s and sunny (although I love that weather too.)

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, Sundog said:

12z GFS maintains the "cooler" look with temps for the city on Tuesday in the upper 80s to near 90 in the city because of an ocean wind component and near 100 in eastern New England.

I doubt the near 100 in eastern New England works out either.

If you want me to make a call this early I'd say 90-95 for us with yucky dew points between 70-75 and slightly hotter for Boston but not 100 (maybe 97-98).

[SACRUS]

 

Just touched 80 and saw the sun after not seeing blue skies in 102 hours.

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, Sundog said:

If your whole area is covered in concrete, then why would concrete be a problem for your thermometer? The whole point of a thermometer is to give you an accurate representation of the temperatures you are going to experience. 

In terms of comparing it with earlier eras when there was less concrete it makes a difference.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

 

Just touched 80 and saw the sun after not seeing blue skies in 102 hours.

yes the sun is *almost* here!

[FPizz]

11 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

From 109 to 88, this is why talking about temps 10 days out usually fails.

No different than long range cold in winter, except many more posters in here go 6 to 12 when they see heat.  

[Sundog]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

In terms of comparing it with earlier eras when there was less concrete it makes a difference.

 

Yes but NYC has had a population of 8 million for literally 100 years. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, FPizz said:

No different than long range cold in winter, except many more posters in here go 6 to 12 when they see heat.  

109 is as unlikely as a 40 inch snowstorm.

 

[MANDA]

53 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I think I may actually be seeing a shadow here in Garwood NJ???

Same here....skies be brightening with some scattered breaks.

[Sundog]

2 minutes ago, FPizz said:

No different than long range cold in winter, except many more posters in here go 6 to 12 when they see heat.  

You should put your solar panels in the shade. Makes no difference. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Sundog said:

Yes but NYC has had a population of 8 million for literally 100 years. 

But the concrete coverage was less and the traffic was definitely much less.  I do believe LGA is more representative of what people in the city experience (at least the northern part of the city), but I think it might overbake temperatures a bit.  Honestly, I find EWR more representative of the entire area and its hottest summers closely match JFK's which I find really interesting.

[MANDA]

17 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

From 109 to 88, this is why talking about temps 10 days out usually fails.

You can talk about temperatures but to be forecasting or expecting records and extremes 10 days out is not wise.

[SACRUS]

 

We'll see how the heat/above normal 6/19 - 6/30 compares with this and the prior cool period in early June.  

 

Jun 14

EWR: 71 / 61 (-6) 0.31
NYC: 68 / 59 (-8) 0.23
LGA: 67 / 59 (-10) 0.13
JFK: 66 / 60 (-7) 1.00
 

 

Jun 15:

 

EWR: 65 / 59 (-11) 0.19
NYC: 64 / 59 (-10) .03
LGA:  65 / 59 (-11)  0.03
JFK: 63 / 59 (-9) 0.07
 

 

Jun 16:

 

EWR: 70 / 62 (-7) 0.03
NYC: 69 / 60 (-7)
LGA: 68 / 60 (-10) 
JFK:  70 / 60 ( -5) 

Jun 17:

EWR: 71 / 63 (-6)
NYC: 67 / 62 (-8)
LGA: 68 / 62 (-9)
JFK: 66 / 64 (-4)

[SACRUS]

6 minutes ago, FPizz said:

No different than long range cold in winter, except many more posters in here go 6 to 12 when they see heat.  

 

Tendency has been a factor and needs to be weighted more for weakness undercutting the ridge and the center forcing the strongest heat west / north of coastal/NYC - east.    

[SACRUS]

 

 

[Sundog]

14 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Tendency has been a factor and needs to be weighted more for weakness undercutting the ridge and the center forcing the strongest heat west / north of coastal/NYC - east.    

I am not entirely convinced that no one in NYC reaches 100. I have no confidence Central Park will for obvious reasons. But I think one of the micronet stations can hit it before any type of light seabreeze develops. 

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

the sun is out here too!!

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

I am not entirely convinced that no one in NYC reaches 100. I have no confidence Central Park will for obvious reasons. But I think one of the micronet stations can hit it before any type of light seabreeze develops. 

I still consider them on the same level as lmeasurements in PNS snowfall reports lol.

We need more ASOS in New York City.