June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Pretty sure my power never went out because of heat, storms yes, that's why I got a generac. Can't have my basement flood again.  

With me it's usually either storms or winds.  Sometimes even a single gust to like 30 mph is enough to shut off the power.

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes thats why NYC and JFK were not close to 100..... if we do get a seabreeze next week, this area would be great for compressional heating as I'm about 2 miles north of the barrier islands.

 

Central Park was probably 100° to 101° on the Great Lawn. But the ASOS under the trees only made it to 98°. JFK had a strong sea breeze so was much cooler.

[Stormlover74]

Warmer spots may hit 90 Friday and Saturday as well before the big heat gets here. Could be a prolonged heat wave starting Thursday 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, bluewave said:

Central Park was probably 100° to 101° on the Great Lawn. But the ASOS under the trees only made it to 98°. JFK had a string sea breeze so was much cooler.

Our high pressures just haven't been strong enough to push the sea breeze offshore=\

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Warmer spots may hit 90 Friday and Saturday as well before the big heat gets here. Could be a prolonged heat wave starting Thursday 

I was going to say, it might hit 90 as soon as Thursday even with limited sunshine.

We won't have a sunny day before Friday though.

[SnowDemon]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I was going to say, it might hit 90 as soon as Thursday even with limited sunshine.

We won't have a sunny day before Friday though.

Looks like Thursday may start cloudy but will eventually clear. 

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Our high pressures just haven't been strong enough to push the sea breeze offshore=\

 

The models have 850 mb temps near 22-23C and 500 mb heights around 597+ DM. So that should easily translate into 100°+ at the usual warm spots. But still uncertain if JFK will break their no 100° streak since 2013.

[Sundog]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

How did they fix it, did they put your power lines underground?

I wish. The power had gone out (yet again) and that time they fixed it they must have done something to premanetly fix the issue.  

[SACRUS]

 

Some chinks in the armor detected in the cloud magnet pushing into W / PA

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The models have 850 mb temps near 22-23C and 500 mb heights around 597+ DM. So that should easily translate into 100°+ at the usual warm spots. But still uncertain if JFK will break their no 100° streak since 2013.

and NYC too their streak also goes back to 2013.  PHL has not hit 100 since 2013 either?

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Some chinks in the armor detected in the cloud magnet pushing into W / PA

 

If a front never moves how long until it rains itself out and the clouds dissipate?

I've always wondered about this.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I wish. The power had gone out (yet again) and that time they fixed it they must have done something to premanetly fix the issue.  

From what I read that massive August 2003 outage was caused by a squirrel chewing on the power line up near Buffalo that caused a power cascade across the entire region from Michigan to the east coast and up to Canada, 55 million without power because of one hungry squirrel lol.

[forkyfork]

mcs potential along the warm front tomorrow

[SACRUS]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

and NYC too their streak also goes back to 2013.  PHL has not hit 100 since 2013 either?

 

 

2012 for Philly with 99 in 2022, 3 98 last year and 3 98 in 2022

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

2012 for Philly with 99 in 2022, 3 98 last year and 3 98 in 2022

That really is an unusual streak for Philly, is that their all time longest?

I can't imagine why Philly hasn't hit 100 over 13 years lol.  Can't use the sea breeze excuse.

 

[MANDA]

4 hours ago, ForestHillWx said:

We’ve had continuous light drizzle all night. Wondering how much we are up to  since this event began last Friday. 

Every drop counts with this projected torch; also I’d prefer to avoid hand watering my newest gardens that I installed in May 

And on it goes this morning.  Had light rain, mist and drizzle all day yesterday.  Pea soup fog ongoing this morning.  Seems temperatures at my location have been stuck between 58 -62 degrees for days.  Rainfall totals since last Friday = .28"/.36"/.07" and .23".  Total = .94".  

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

00Z GFS did NOT have the backdoor cold front Wednesday. It stayed well to our north then got here Friday night and quickly washed out with 576dm thicknesses building around it. The 00Z GFS when compared to the 12Z GFS is hotter and longer duration heat lasting from Sunday through perhaps Saturday or even maybe the following Sunday. And wouldn't you know, the heat is poised to rebuild into the region the very beginning of July according to its fantasy range maps. There'll be lots of thunderstorm activity IMO. The GGEM did have the Wednesday evening cold front with cooler weather Thursday & Friday (onshore winds).

WX/PT

This is climo history, when you have heat starting in the latter part of June it doesn't peak until July.  Heat after June 20 usually indicates a very hot and very long summer. 1966, 1980 and 1993 being cases in point.

 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, rclab said:

Liberty's is our only hope for catching up to the New England Forums post count. As always ….

I'm up for the challenge!!

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Ensembles are getting stronger with the heat dome. 600dm now showing up on GFS. 

positioning counts, lets get it set up for a nice dry landbreeze.

[SACRUS]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This is climo history, when you have heat starting in the latter part of June it doesn't peak until July.  Heat after June 20 usually indicates a very hot and very long summer. 1966, 1980 and 1993 being cases in point.

 

Im not sure I follow this?  Heat after jun 20th, meaning no heat until or starting  after jun 20th?  

[MANDA]

3 hours ago, wdrag said:

Considering,  but not acting upon a possible thread for interior NJ first June 3 or more 100 degree days, occurring next week.  Blend of Models is several degrees under 100. I want to see how temps play this Thursday (KEWR 90?), and subsequent modeling.  Much can interrupt excessive heat, including sea breezes, thunderstorms, cloud debris.  TOO early but for me, worthy of monitoring. 

105 "heat index" - think that is our warning criteria up here, has according to WPC statisitcs is around a 60% chance of occurrence Monday and Tuesday.  Here is Tuesday's early morning WPC prediction for Tuesday.  Click for clarity and use the graph for probability interpretation. 

 

Love this post.  Measured and level headed.  I am wary about temperatures peaking much over 100 myself, especially this far in advance.  As Walt stated much can interrupt and it has been quite wet lately.  Bigger issue for me will be HI readings possibly 105-110 with higher than usual dews possible for a W / WNW heat event.  We'll see but high temperatures of 105+ are very suspect to me.

 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Im not sure I follow this?  Heat after jun 20th, meaning no heat until or starting  after jun 20th?  

Well this was the case in 1980, heat began around or after June 20th.  This is my main analog for this summer and has been for months now.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Love this post.  Measured and level headed.  I am wary about temperatures peaking much over 100 myself, especially this far in advance.  As Walt stated much can interrupt and it has been quite wet lately.  Bigger issue for me will be HI readings possibly 105-110 with higher than usual dews possible for a W / WNW heat event.  We'll see but high temperatures of 105+ are very suspect to me.

 

Yes and it really does not happen in June and even moreso after so much rain.  But add this caveat, we rarely ever see our highest temperatures in June, this will probably be an appetizer for heat even more extreme in July.

 

[FPizz]

33 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

2012 for Philly with 99 in 2022, 3 98 last year and 3 98 in 2022

Euro Ai hot M-W, then 70s by Thurs?

[Sundog]

2 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Euro Ai hot M-W, then 70s by Thurs?

Can you post a link?

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That really is an unusual streak for Philly, is that their all time longest?

I can't imagine why Philly hasn't hit 100 over 13 years lol.  Can't use the sea breeze excuse.

 

Philly made it to 100° last July at one of the airports and downtown.

 

Monthly Data for July 2024 for Mount Holly NJ NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

PA	PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE	COOP	101
PA	NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT	WBAN	100
NJ	HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	100

[Stormlover74]

9 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Can you post a link?

Looks like a 1 day reprieve then back to the heat

[FPizz]

8 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Can you post a link?

It's on Pivotal, Euro-AIFS.   Is that the Euro AI?  It has 70s on its 06z run, but I'm not sure if that is the AI model?

[FPizz]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Looks like a 1 day reprieve then back to the heat

2 days, as it has lower 70s on Friday, then back to 90s for 2 days

[Sundog]

4 minutes ago, FPizz said:

2 days, as it has lower 70s on Friday, then back to 90s for 2 days

Any break from the heat is good, I really hope the AI is right