2025 ENSO/Winter Speculation

[Typhoon Tip]

On 4/21/2025 at 10:54 PM, bristolri_wx said:

The CFS thinks the earth is on fire all the time.  CANSIPS DJF 25/26:

 

Considering what it’s doing to the polar Arctic region up there… I don’t think it’s a hell of a lot better

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, 512high said:

was it 2011-12? (I think!) Hope you and the family are well!

2011-2012 was awful.

[wxsniss]

Let’s hope this isn’t true…

https://studyfinds.org/winter-weather-moving-west-how-the-polar-vortex-rewriting-americas-cold-map/

“LOWELL, Mass. — Americans expecting the worst winter weather to slam the East Coast might need to look northwest instead. A major study spanning four decades reveals that severe winter storms are shifting away from traditional snow belt regions toward the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, potentially changing where Americans should brace for brutal cold and heavy snow…”

”According to the study, published in Science Advances, the first pattern “features an upper-level vortex displaced toward western Canada and linked to northwestern U.S. severe winter weather.” The second “features a weakened upper-level vortex displaced toward the North Atlantic and linked to central-eastern U.S. severe winter weather.”

[Go Kart Mozart]

 

So, for the last four decades winter storms have shifted away from the east coast?  How much of our taxpayer funded grant money went into this load of shit?

Don't get me twisted, I am not denying that the earth is warming....different issue....but WTF is this?

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 7/13/2025 at 10:14 AM, wxsniss said:

Let’s hope this isn’t true…

https://studyfinds.org/winter-weather-moving-west-how-the-polar-vortex-rewriting-americas-cold-map/

“LOWELL, Mass. — Americans expecting the worst winter weather to slam the East Coast might need to look northwest instead. A major study spanning four decades reveals that severe winter storms are shifting away from traditional snow belt regions toward the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, potentially changing where Americans should brace for brutal cold and heavy snow…”

”According to the study, published in Science Advances, the first pattern “features an upper-level vortex displaced toward western Canada and linked to northwestern U.S. severe winter weather.” The second “features a weakened upper-level vortex displaced toward the North Atlantic and linked to central-eastern U.S. severe winter weather.”

It would make sense if this were focused on the last 7-10 years or so....but four decades? the 90s, 00s and 10s were great for NE coastal snowfall. I haven't read it over, but it seems like they are exagerating the sample size to prematurely launch a west warm pool derived CC theory because they know there isn't enough data yet.

[Prismshine Productions]

I know, bigger payoff that way, but I’m just so sick of dealing with marginal air masses.

Yeah, same, hence my projection

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[Typhoon Tip]

On 7/13/2025 at 7:14 AM, wxsniss said:

Let’s hope this isn’t true…

https://studyfinds.org/winter-weather-moving-west-how-the-polar-vortex-rewriting-americas-cold-map/

“LOWELL, Mass. — Americans expecting the worst winter weather to slam the East Coast might need to look northwest instead. A major study spanning four decades reveals that severe winter storms are shifting away from traditional snow belt regions toward the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, potentially changing where Americans should brace for brutal cold and heavy snow…”

”According to the study, published in Science Advances, the first pattern “features an upper-level vortex displaced toward western Canada and linked to northwestern U.S. severe winter weather.” The second “features a weakened upper-level vortex displaced toward the North Atlantic and linked to central-eastern U.S. severe winter weather.”

I suggest it is true ... 

At least intuitively so - a more advancing/sophisticated corroborative science not withstanding. It aligns well with faster hemispheres that occur as a result of increased gradient associated with CC.

More over, this is reproducible observation, folks.   I mean we spend all this time with deep statistical comparisons with mid last century longer termed teleconnectors .. trying to find secrets that no one has. Yet from what I'm reading ... no one considers CC enough and or blinking light limits that are materializing now.  Can't build expectations based upon the former - not nearly as much so.   

I've been snarky - admittedly - in recent post with drive-by pot shots ... more for funniness that those who engage in the practice of course don't see the humor.  HAHAHA.  Seriously though, when joked to just take the last 10 years, average them, and call it a day for temp and precip bias expectation... mm, unfortunately there's more than a mere modicum truth to it.  And the why is rooted in the gradient soaked hemisphere. When there's more non-hydrostatic lines demarcating the polar field from the subtropical field, that physically/deterministically speeds up the flow.  That does a few things.. But the mains are: faster flow  alters the wave frequency;  telecon reliance takes a hit because though the correlations are clad, they change faster than the correlation can be realized. This casts an illusion of chaos but's really that the patterns are changing almost as fast as a cold wave synopsis gets underway ( for example), and vice versa.   

This is why part of the climate reporting, globally, is complaining  about dramatic short term changes.  It's because the increased speed of wave propagation at planetary scales.  This then causes non-linear and linear resonance break down.  Think of it as less positive interference.   

As an aside/anecdotally ( so taken with a grain - ), this is causing a gutting of the "middle class"   Less standard model cyclones in lieu of weird events that gets us more or less in the range of seasonal snow - which is also a delta climate metric, so it's silly to think of seasonality if based upon 1980 ...  We seem to get more 20 to 30" events making up seasonal totals though.  We get nickle dimes by accident, or the big historic wild bombs, otherwise, we're yawing between deep cold and balmy thaws in less time.  This' phenotype' winter has been reproducible regardless of PDO this, or ENSO that, are AMO(AO/NAO/EPO) derivatives, solar belches or opposite house birth signs.  The variant behavior is dominating despite all those.

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/07/la-neutral-enso-conditions-will.html

[Snowcrazed71]

20 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/07/la-neutral-enso-conditions-will.html

Of course, you're getting those saying a weak La Nina is going to develop going into the Winter, but I suspect even if that happens, it won't really make much of difference ( like a typical La Nina ).

Thanks for your blog/insight on what you are seeing for this upcoming Winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Of course, you're getting those saying a weak La Nina is going to develop going into the Winter, but I suspect even if that happens, it won't really make much of difference ( like a typical La Nina ).

Thanks for your blog/insight on what you are seeing for this upcoming Winter.

Define "difference"......will it mean a below average temperature season with above average snowfall? Probably not....but will it prevent a wall-to-wall disaster with some periods of poleward Aleutian ridging and some blocking...probably.

[Prismshine Productions]

Define "difference"......will it mean a below average temperature season with above average snowfall? Probably not....but will it prevent a wall-to-wall disaster with some periods of poleward Aleutian ridging and some blocking...probably.

So warmer and drier than last winter but not as touchy as 2023/4 correct?

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

So warmer and drier than last winter but not as touchy as 2023/4 correct?

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk
 

No, warmer and wetter than last winter is my guess.

[Prismshine Productions]

No, warmer and wetter than last winter is my guess.

My preliminary guess is +2-3C, 75-80% of normal snowfall

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk