2025-2026 ENSO

[LakePaste25]

The Nina is still there. But this indo-pacific warm pool analysis is intriguing to me. Compared to this time in 2023, the warm pool is expanded much further east. Not quite Feb 2015 levels, but it’s close. If we do regress back to a -PNA, I could see the cold dumping into the mountain west or the high plains. I don’t think it’ll be as far west as 2023. If you factor in the blocking that keeps showing up, it might make things interesting. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

The Nina is still there. But this indo-pacific warm pool analysis is intriguing to me. Compared to this time in 2023, the warm pool is expanded much further east. Not quite Feb 2015 levels, but it’s close. If we do regress back to a -PNA, I could see the cold dumping into the mountain west or the high plains. I don’t think it’ll be as far west as 2023. If you factor in the blocking that keeps showing up, it might make things interesting. 

 

It's still a bit west of 2015 IMHO...it does look like we may finally be seeing a light at the end of the tunnel, but not enough for this season IMHO. Next year could be great.

[LakePaste25]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's still a bit west of 2015 IMHO...it does look like we may finally be seeing a light at the end of the tunnel, but not enough for this season IMHO. Next year could be great.

Yeah that’s why I’m thinking we still regress to a -PNA, but not as severe as 2023. The blocking will also help if it persists.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, LakePaste25 said:

Yeah that’s why I’m thinking we still regress to a -PNA, but not as severe as 2023. The blocking will also help if it persists.

-PNA for February is non-negotiable IMHO....always has been.

[LakePaste25]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

-PNA for February is non-negotiable IMHO....always has been.

The deep cold and persistent snowpack has been nice, but I also wouldn’t mind getting back in on the action here on the I-90 great lakes corridor. We’ll see how it goes.

[schoeppeya]

Pretty incredible PV split the GFS is trying to show:

 

[BlizzardWx]

Interesting on some guidance, like last nights ECMWF, how quickly the mid level heights across higher latitudes increase after the PV split. Could be coincidence but I hope we can get this going in February rather than waiting till March to see impacts. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 1/3/2026 at 6:38 AM, snowman19 said:

Looks like Ray @40/70 Benchmark was right about the SPV strengthening in January……
 

 

On 1/8/2026 at 10:21 AM, snowman19 said:

@40/70 Benchmark I’m assuming you disagree with Eric’s take that there’s going to be a big SPV strengthening then coupling with the troposphere leading to +AO/+NAO late winter into spring?
 

 

 

 

 

 

On 1/8/2026 at 11:35 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes. But it's probably a binary outcome...meaning one or the other.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Tough season for Mr. Webb.

[BlizzardWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wouldn't pay much attention to the OP.

That's fair, but other ensemble guidance is mostly headed that way too. Will it verify? That is another story but in my mind you usually see hints showing up before it happens, so I am at least glad to see it starting to show up. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

That's fair, but other ensemble guidance is mostly headed that way too. Will it verify? That is another story but in my mind you usually see hints showing up before it happens, so I am at least glad to see it starting to show up. 

Oh...I misunderstood your post...I thought you were saying heights in the mid latitudes. Yes, since we are already in deep -NAO/-AO, there should be much of a lag. I mentioned that in my update on Wednesday.

My bad...agree.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Last fall, I assumed that the strong PV accompanying the +TNH would be more coupled with the troposphere, so I thought we would have +NAO, that is why I originally forecast the blocking to redevelop for early March.

I missed the late January -NAO accompanying the +TNH, which is why it was colder than even I had thought.

[SnowGoose69]

Indications the QBO may be more E next winter, if that happens and the El Nino is over 1.5 may not be as good as we had been hoping.  Might be glad in the future we did well this winter.

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

-PNA for February is non-negotiable IMHO....always has been.

Yea seems like a coast to coast type of pattern. Which is not terrible for this time of year makes me happy to see a potential moist pattern finally trying to set up regardless of snow or rain. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Indications the QBO may be more E next winter, if that happens and the El Nino is over 1.5 may not be as good as we had been hoping.  Might be glad in the future we did well this winter.

That would be surprising.

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Yea seems like a coast to coast type of pattern. Which is not terrible for this time of year makes me happy to see a potential moist pattern finally trying to set up regardless of snow or rain. 

My co-worker and I call that the pre AGW pattern.  Would see that type of pattern all the time pre 2000s...especially pre 1990.  Its become quite rare now.  It always seems some sector of country is a torch and some sector is very cold when we are not wall to wall warm in winter.

[so_whats_happening]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

My co-worker and I call that the pre AGW pattern.  Would see that type of pattern all the time pre 2000s...especially pre 1990.  Its become quite rare now.  It always seems some sector of country is a torch and some sector is very cold when we are not wall to wall warm in winter.

Fair point it really has been awhile for that type of pattern. There is a large amount of cold air this year which I have been told ad infinitum that this will not be a thing going forward. The longevity is something else this year.

[so_whats_happening]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That would be surprising.

We are officially in a WQBO descending phase so we should be right near that transition come next winter so may be a little interesting to start off. Not sure about the transition to full on Nino but plenty of time to discuss.