2025-2026 ENSO

[brooklynwx99]

this is a pretty wild change near Japan since August. that heatwave is almost entirely wiped out... wondering if this is a change to a +PDO down the road, especially if we get a Nino next year

[George001]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I can see 2013, 2014 though? Lol That was +ENSO and ++PDO

Edit: @40/70 Benchmark @bluewave @donsutherland1 Strongest -IOD of the 21st century
 

Either way 2014 isn’t an analog I would use, but I do think it’s worth keeping an open mind about +ENSO analogs if other factors line up. I would prefer a negative PDO though 

[WxWatcher007]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

2025 ACE:

Through Sept 16th: 39

Sept 17th+: 74 and rising rapidly.

The full season to date ACE is progged to get above the 1991-2020 full season avg of 122 by tonight and then go well above that within the next few days. This very active late season ACE has been the pattern especially in recent La Nina seasons.

 There have been 4 MH with 3 of them occurring since Sept 22!

 

Which worked well for my peak season forecast, though I missed Melissa by 11 hours lol. 

[Yanksfan]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is a pretty wild change near Japan since August. that heatwave is almost entirely wiped out... wondering if this is a change to a +PDO down the road, especially if we get a Nino next year

That should help to slow down the raging pac jet a bit this winter but we need more cooling to see a more pronounced slow down.

[stadiumwave]

12 hours ago, snowman19 said:

We have reached the point where people using 2013 as an SST analog (SST analog) have an issue. Not commenting on any other factors being used as an analog to that year, just SSTs. But as it stands now, we are not even in the ballpark of going into a Victoria mode PDO, not even close, whereas we were into a Victoria mode PDO by the beginning of November back in 2013….

 

If you're referring simply to the SST's in N Pac, I guess you have not bothered to look at the progression of the NPAC in Fall & Winter 2013?? NPAC went from emerging blob in Sept to colder than now in Oct & then warm again by the end of DEC. 

https://www.wxsphere.com/topic/729-winter-2025-2026/page/6/#findComment-127931

 

Go look for yourself:

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/sst/anomaly/2013.html