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2025-2026 ENSO


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poleward shift of the pac jet = an alaskan vortex as far as the eye can see. no shots of arctic or subarctic air through the next couple of weeks, probably longer. 

mjo does look like it wants to push out into the pacific. eyeing mid to late november for a potential equatorward shift of the pac jet which would increase chances of popping a -epo depending on where this jet exits. 

 

 

IMG_5601.gif

IMG_5603.gif

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@Stormchaserchuck1I wonder if we try to see a Modoki El Niño next year....pretty comparable subsurface profile to 1967, which led into the 1968-1969 El Niño.

AVvXsEindTvW05ewGKbbcH-Qu_-FwCSkN6650JQK

webb and others have said that the current subsurface/sst profile is similar to last year Ninas which transitioned into ninos the next year

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@Stormchaserchuck1I would consider 2008 a bit before tossing cool ENSO analogs....that year went on to be a late blooming, bonafide, albeit modest La Niña despite the warm subsurface encroachment from the west....even 1967 got down to -0.7 ONI, though it just missed official designation. Now, I don't think we cool quite as much as 2008 because the trades and SOI are a bit less impressive, but the subsurface is very similar, so I would extrapolate out a bit less development than that year.

Keep in mind region 3.4 goes all the way over to 120W, so the warmth has a bit to go and you still have to factor a lag.

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9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@Stormchaserchuck1I would consider 2008 a bit before tossing cool ENSO analogs....that year went on to be a late blooming, bonafide, albeit modest La Niña despite the warm subsurface encroachment from the west....even 1967 got down to -0.7 ONI, though it just missed official designation. Now, I don't think we cool quite as much as 2008 because the trades and SOI are a bit less impressive, but the subsurface is very similar, so I would extrapolate out a bit less development than that year.

Keep in mind region 3.4 goes all the way over to 120W, so the warmth has a bit to go and you still have to factor a lag.

SOI has been positive now 15 straight months.. -AAM the last few months, -PDO, a few things are lined up for cold-ENSO it seems, but without a big ENSO subsurface cold pool it's going to be hard to get N. Pacific -PNA. The subsurface cooling could come back, it waxes and wanes, but the way it looks right now is pretty far from La Nina analogs.. Crazy thing, although SOI has been positive 15 straight months, it has never gone above +10.. so we've been consistently on this weak-cold ENSO thing. I think the past shows us that when that happens the odds for a future El Nino increase. 

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1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

poleward shift of the pac jet = an alaskan vortex as far as the eye can see. no shots of arctic or subarctic air through the next couple of weeks, probably longer. 

mjo does look like it wants to push out into the pacific. eyeing mid to late november for a potential equatorward shift of the pac jet which would increase chances of popping a -epo depending on where this jet exits. 

 

 

IMG_5601.gif

IMG_5603.gif

The million dollar question….does it actually make it into the PAC or does it die out in phases 6/7 and end up back in the IO? The end of month propagation to the Maritime Continent (finally) looks like a certainty now but the MJO has been exhibiting very erratic behavior for the past few months now with barely any eastward movement before it circles right back to the IO

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19 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

SOI has been positive now 15 straight months.. -AAM the last few months, -PDO, a few things are lined up for cold-ENSO it seems, but without a big ENSO subsurface cold pool it's going to be hard to get N. Pacific -PNA. The subsurface cooling could come back, it waxes and wanes, but the way it looks right now is pretty far from La Nina analogs.. Crazy thing, although SOI has been positive 15 straight months, it has never gone above +10.. so we've been consistently on this weak-cold ENSO thing. I think the past shows us that when that happens the odds for a future El Nino increase. 

I think the course of least regret is incorporating La Niña analogs, but emphasizing variability with respect to the PNA....including some +PNA cool ENSO analogs, as well...such as 2024 and 2000, which are both stellar polar analogs.

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7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Here is what we get the Winter before an El Nino the following year

1.gif

1a.gif

i would shift the mean trough axis a little further west given the stronger nina and a weaker indo-pacific warm pool this year. still a decent fit though. 

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30 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The million dollar question….does it actually make it into the PAC or does it die out in phases 6/7 and end up back in the IO? The end of month propagation to the Maritime Continent (finally) looks like a certainty now but the MJO has been exhibiting very erratic behavior for the past few months now with barely any eastward movement before it circles right back to the IO

yeah it’s not guaranteed by any means. just looking for signs of changes 

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4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the primary impact will be to ensure this event remains pretty east-based heading into winter...it's been exceedingly difficult to marry any subsurface cold to substantive trades over the western flank.

And that's a positive for most in here.

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Theoretically, according to some studies, to have the best chance of a successfully propagating MJO event beyond the MC. There are 2 main factors to consider. Indian Ocean temps and the QBO. With the combination of a warm Indian Ocean combined with an EQBO offering the highest chance for success. 

 

Understanding the Factors Controlling MJO Prediction Skill across Events

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/37/20/JCLI-D-23-0635.1.xml

The results show that the low-frequency background states of the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature and the quasi-biannual oscillation are good indicators for MJO prediction skill, for their modulatory role in the MJO propagation range.

The difference in intraseasonal fields can further be attributed to the LFBS of IO sea surface temperature (SST) and quasi-biannual oscillation (QBO), with the high-skill (low-skill) events corresponding to a warmer (colder) IO and easterly (westerly) QBO phase. The physical link is that a warm IO could increase the low-level convective instability and thus amplify MJO convection over the IO, whereas an easterly QBO phase could weaken the Maritime Continent barrier effect by weakening the static stability near the tropopause, thus favoring eastward propagation of the MJO. It is also found that the combined effects of IO SST and QBO phases are more effective in influencing MJO prediction skill than individual LFBS.

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PDO dropping makes sense in light of 15 day SSTA change.
crw_ssta_change15_global.png.b24561565ce6ce44441492c6bf52c4c7.png

Where that cooling is taking place along the west coast of North America, off Baja and up into the GOA with the warmth under the Aleutians is reminiscent of a -PDO “cold horseshoe” something we haven’t seen in quite awhile 
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