2025-2026 ENSO

[donsutherland1]

13 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I thought you had posted a US Climate division data correlation map, showing >0.5 temp correlation with the NAO over the last decade, almost everywhere in the CONUS during the cold season. This was maybe 9 months ago. 

Sorry, I thought you were referring to snowfall maps. If I recall correctly, the NAO map showed a 0.5 correlation for the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast and lower correlation for the Northeast/Great Lakes areas. Also, the correlation has weakened since 1990.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, bluewave said:

You are looking at the global temperature jump in linear terms. First, what seems like a small rise in average global temperatures has much more amplified effects regionally.

Second, SSTs in some tropical and even subtropical zones areas can cross a threshold where a nonlinear shift occurs. Resulting in standing waves that remain stationary for extended periods leading to very high local to regional warm departures.

Unfortunately, there isn’t a guide we can consult which has a set SST level at which the changes will occur. As the climate is warming faster than our modeling technology can keep up with. So many of these shifts are only realized after the fact. 

Like I have been saying, we will know alot more once we get into the next decade. Obviously the globe is warming...we know that now, but in terms of whether this pattern is merely one of the multidecadal fluctuations as we know them, or a longer-term CC-induced shift.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Sorry, I thought you were referring to snowfall maps. If I recall correctly, the NAO map showed a 0.5 correlation for the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast and lower correlation for the Northeast/Great Lakes areas.

Nevermind, I found the link that you had sent me (thank you).. It's actually not what I thought I saw posted. This confirms the un-correlating NAO in the last 10 years, although I think the Pacific pattern has a lot to do with it (notice the big anomalies over the West coast, usually the NAO runs 0.1-0.2 correlation out there). I think it's been -PNA/+EPO with -NAO and +PNA/-EPO with +NAO. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We had a strong +PDO wave 2014-2016, it got up there over +2 for a good amount of time. Many thought the phase could be shifting because the std of the +pdo at that time was pretty high, but it tanked a few years after the 15-16 Strong Nino. Looking back, it was just a blip, or an anomaly, in the 30-year trend.

Not uncommon to have an ENSO attributed deviation from the loneger term Pacific trend...saw that in the late 50s, too.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I think we may actually approach a moderate La Niña on the RONI this coming fall/winter. I also believe there’s a good chance we see a weak La Niña on the ONI. A strong -PDO winter would not surprise me either

My feeling has been it will be around -1...borderish.

[40/70 Benchmark]

55 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I haven't checked my index, but it's probably very positive.. that looks like close to +0.75 in that map (DJFM NAO). The cold over the southern Davis Strait and south of Greenland is a big part of it. 

Of course that's the one spot on the globe that pulls a cold amomaly in this new, warmer climate.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I do kind of doubt and extreme +NAO AND RNA this season....that has been tough to pull off, as Chuck can attest to. Doesn't mean it won't be warm, but just saying...

[Stormchaserchuck1]

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I do kind of doubt and extreme +NAO AND RNA this season....that has been tough to pull off, as Chuck can attest to. Doesn't mean it won't be warm, but just saying...

That's probably true unless something over powers it like a Strong La Nina. I think, like last year, a +NAO tendency will try to happen with +pna/-epo, I just don't know if the "snap back" from last year is going to negate that. Call the theory weird, but I've been testing it and it's been working out.. a year ago we had like 10 days of -5 AAO readings around now, a month ago I said that will probably mean we get +AAO around the same time this year and it was strongly positive in early July and now early August. PDO years that "don't work" one Winter work at a coefficient of 1.25x the following year. Just random statistical stuff, but I think given the background state we are kind of due for a more -PNA Winter.. maybe -EPO. I've also been thinking, how bad would a 01-02 +EPO-like Winter be these days? It's actually been a little bit of time since the EPO has been in a strongly positive state for the Winter, and that index is very powerful at resulting US weather. I think a 01-02 style +EPO would probably put us in the 70s down here in the Winter on multiple days, I guess given the WPO and EA.

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

That's probably true unless something over powers it like a Strong La Nina. I think, like last year, a +NAO tendency will try to happen with +pna/-epo, I just don't know if the "snap back" from last year is going to negate that. Call the theory weird, but I've been testing it and it's been working out.. a year ago we had like 10 days of -5 AAO readings around now, a month ago I said that will probably mean we get +AAO around the same time this year and it was strongly positive in early July and now early August. PDO years that "don't work" one Winter work at a coefficient of 1.25x the following year. Just random statistical stuff, but I think given the background state we are kind of due for a more -PNA Winter.. maybe -EPO. I've also been thinking, how bad would a 01-02 +EPO-like Winter be these days? It's actually been a little bit of time since the EPO has been in a strongly positive state for the Winter, and that index is very powerful at resulting US weather. I think a 01-02 style +EPO would probably put us in the 70s down here in the Winter on multiple days, I guess given the WPO and EA.

We have only had two -WPO seasons over the span of a decade.... 2016-2017 and 2021-2022. I don't expect that to change either, so....

[40/70 Benchmark]

My guess is that the PNA will average negative, but not extremely so...there will probably be one month that averages positive.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My guess is that the PNA will average negative, but not extremely so...there will probably be one month that averages positive.

There really hasn't been a strong/persistent Aleutian ridge since before the 23-24 El Nino. I mean for several years there we were seeing some big time patterns out there. It's been much weaker lately, making me think it probably won't be a big -pna Winter, could average negative in the mean though. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

There really hasn't been a strong/persistent Aleutian ridge since before the 23-24 El Nino. I mean for several years there we were seeing some big time patterns out there. It's been much weaker lately, making me think it probably won't be a big -pna Winter

This makes sense to me....which is why I don't have an issue with a 2022-2023 type of evolution because I think a more pedestrian RNA in a regime like that would yield respectable snowfall.

The +NAO anaomaly I feel will be stronger than the -PNA, but I don't think its wall-to-wall, as I am getting some signals for some early and late seasons blocking potential.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This makes sense to me....which is why I don't have an issue with a 2022-2023 type of evolution because I think a more pedestrian RNA in a regime like that would yield respectable snowfall.

The +NAO anaomaly I feel will be stronger than the -PNA, but I don't think its wall-to-wall, as I am getting some signals for some early and late seasons blocking potential.

I think there is KU potential in mid-late January, but the wild card is the NAO. I don't think the NAO will stay negative for more than 10 days at a time this Winter.. if it can line up with what I think could be a GOA low pattern in January (if La Nina doesn't go too strong), then we might hit a good storm. If the ENSO subsurface is -4 to -6 during that time though, forget it.. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think there is KU potential in mid-late January, but the wild card is the NAO. I don't think the NAO will stay negative for more than 10 days at a time this Winter.. if it can line up with what I think could be a GOA low pattern in January (if La Nina doesn't go too strong), then we might hit a good storm. If the ENSO subsurface is -4 to -6 during that time though, forget it.. 

I don't foresee that as being prohibitive. ...the ONI will be of course be weak and official La Nina designation dubious, but I think in a practical sense, this particular cool ENSO will ultimately straddle the boundary of a weak/moderate hemeispheric expression.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I could see mid-to late January if we get a bout of early season blocking that receedes around that time, but I think the stronger shot of a major east coast system is late.

[bluewave]

38 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think there is KU potential in mid-late January, but the wild card is the NAO. I don't think the NAO will stay negative for more than 10 days at a time this Winter.. if it can line up with what I think could be a GOA low pattern in January (if La Nina doesn't go too strong), then we might hit a good storm. If the ENSO subsurface is -4 to -6 during that time though, forget it.. 

I think the Pacific will continue to be much more important than what the NAO does. The last time we saw a few KU events was back in January 2022 with a solid +NAO pattern. The key was the strong MJO 8 which allowed the Pacific Jet to relax for a month.  That was the last time many of us had a cold and snowy month. So we would want to see improvement from the Pacific Jet.

[mitchnick]

August Euro seasonal just out off free site fwiw.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]}

[donsutherland1]

The newly released ECMWF Seasonal Forecast for Fall shows somewhat warmer than normal conditions in the Central U.S. The CANSIPS with its cold outlook there is an outlier.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The newly released ECMWF Seasonal Forecast for Fall shows somewhat warmer than normal conditions in the Central U.S. The CANSIPS with its cold outlook there is an outlier.

And DEC-FEB is +.5-1C. Very workable with normal precip it is also predicting.

Monthly forecast indicates January very close to normal with February, like most Niñas, the most AN.

[snowman19]

This makes sense to me....which is why I don't have an issue with a 2022-2023 type of evolution because I think a more pedestrian RNA in a regime like that would yield respectable snowfall.
The +NAO anaomaly I feel will be stronger than the -PNA, but I don't think its wall-to-wall, as I am getting some signals for some early and late seasons blocking potential.

Already said it, but I agree with you on -PNA this winter….2nd year -ENSO….very strong tendency. As far as the NAO being “super” positive, I doubt it, but I could definitely see a predominant +NAO this winter, especially if this SST alignment continues through fall, other factors (solar, geomag, lack of a tripole in June) we already talked about argue for that too

[mitchnick]

5H Dec-Feb Euro

[bluewave]

The Euro has the same winter pattern at 500mb as we are getting this summer. It’s a -EPO +PNA and Southeast Ridge pattern. Pattern persistence or the model is in repeater mode?  Stay tuned….

 

[mitchnick]

Just now, bluewave said:

The Euro has the same winter pattern at 500mb as we are getting this summer. It’s a -EPO +PNA and Southeast Ridge pattern. Pattern persistence or the model is in repeater mode?  Stay tuned….

 

I wouldn't say it’s the same...more like similar.

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I wouldn't say it’s the same...more like similar.

Yeah, very similar. It goes to the comments I made earlier. There is a disconnect between the higher latitude teleconnections and the mid-latitude pattern. So we still get the subtropical ridge from the Pacific across the U.S. and Atlantic even with the -EPO +PNA. 

 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This makes sense to me....which is why I don't have an issue with a 2022-2023 type of evolution because I think a more pedestrian RNA in a regime like that would yield respectable snowfall.

The +NAO anaomaly I feel will be stronger than the -PNA, but I don't think its wall-to-wall, as I am getting some signals for some early and late seasons blocking potential.

I'm hoping for a good early season blocking. At least the trickle down effects of that block will happen in January and February, a time when it can snow. A good late season blocking isn't going to save us. (2023 is a good example. Not a great early season block, but a very good late season one. By the time the cold pattern was in place from that block, it was May and June. The cold was impressive, as we didn't get that type of cold during that time of the year in nearly 40 years, but it isn't going to snow in June.)

[Stormchaserchuck1]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro has the same winter pattern at 500mb as we are getting this summer. It’s a -EPO +PNA and Southeast Ridge pattern. Pattern persistence or the model is in repeater mode?  Stay tuned….

I don't think we will get a SE ridge if the Pacific H5 looks like that for the Winter. Their Pac ridge might be far enough south though.. I think it's persistence as last Feb looked like that with the dominant +h5 over 90N. Crazy how much it looks like June-July. 

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, very similar. It goes to the comments I made earlier. There is a disconnect between the higher latitude teleconnections and the mid-latitude pattern. So we still get the subtropical ridge from the Pacific across the U.S. and Atlantic even with the -EPO +PNA. 

 

 

Looking at the 5H map I posted, from my perspective, I  see "relative" weakness around and off Japan along with stronger ridging in Alaska. Both are positive if you're hoping for at least periods of opportunities during the winter. 

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Looking at the 5H map I posted, from my perspective, I  see "relative" weakness around and off Japan along with stronger ridging in Alaska. Both are positive if you're hoping for at least periods of opportunities during the winter. 

The Euro has an active storm track through the Great Lakes for the crew in the favored lake effect snow zones.

 

[snowman19]

The Euro has the same winter pattern at 500mb as we are getting this summer. It’s a -EPO +PNA and Southeast Ridge pattern. Pattern persistence or the model is in repeater mode?  Stay tuned….


 

While I can definitely see periods of -EPO, I doubt we see the same persistence we saw last winter from the end of November through the beginning of March

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

While I can definitely see periods of -EPO, I doubt we see the same persistence we saw last winter from the end of November through the beginning of March

I am just commenting on what the model is showing. It’s striking how similar it is to the 500mb pattern we are getting this summer. If we do get a pattern resembling that next winter, then maybe the worst in terms of those strong -PNAs like we had in 21-22 and 22-23 is behind us. But it looks like the model still wants to go with the storm track through the Great Lakes which has been persistent since 18-19.