2025-2026 ENSO

[KakashiHatake2000]

oh i see interesting thank you

[GaWx]

 The July 30 mb QBO was released today at -19.99 (nothing surprising).

[Stormchaserchuck1]

25 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The July 30 mb QBO was released today at -19.99 (nothing surprising).

The extreme QBO fluctuations over recent years is very interesting. It will be interesting to see what ENSO does over the next few years. 

-QBO if it holds for the cold season has a warm Stratosphere correlation at about 0.3. That doesn't automatically mean cold though, as the composite of warm Stratosphere Winters is actually +temp anomaly for the Northeast. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

RONI should be pretty comfortable La Nina though? Like a -0.8 to -0.9 peak. That's similar to a 1950 year having ONI of -0.8/9. RONI has led for H5 correlations over ONI the last 3 Winters, at least. 

I understand all of that, but just saying....that rule is geared toward technical La Niña seasons. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The extreme QBO fluctuations over recent years is very interesting. It will be interesting to see what ENSO does over the next few years. 

-QBO if it holds for the cold season has a warm Stratosphere correlation at about 0.3. That doesn't automatically mean cold though, as the composite of warm Stratosphere Winters is actually +temp anomaly for the Northeast. 

What isn't in modern times???

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What isn't in modern times???

My date of birth. 

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

My goodness that cycle lasted for 30 years?? So "decadal" isn't so much a literal decade but just however many decades it lasts? 

(I'm sure you would've loved it back then...lol Although the 60s were snowy for the east)

Last 4 or 5 days the daily PDO rose from -3.5 to -2.73 on the World Climate Service site, so it's too early to get too concerned for this winter.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What isn't in modern times???

It's just a little surprising overall.. there is a +15 to +45 day lag (at different times of the year) for -NAO, which typically delivers cold to the eastern US, but the surrounding times are apparently warm. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The big story this warm season (May-July) has been the +AO

analogs

I've been saying how cold H5 in the Summer isn't actually that bad, as the following Winters seem to have some good arctic air present. The roll forward of those top 20 analogs, which is big time ++AO, is not actually a warm look.. neutral to slightly below US Temps for Dec-March

[Stormchaserchuck1]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I understand all of that, but just saying....that rule is geared toward technical La Niña seasons. 

Yeah but if we are equal to a Weak La Nina in the 50s-70s, why not say La Nina? The relative index is relevant for Hadley Cell interactions, as the flux occurs more around the global temperature than with it imo

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah but if we are equal to a Weak La Nina in the 50s-70s, why not say La Nina? The relative index is relevant for Hadley Cell interactions, as the flux occurs more around the global temperature than with it imo

I am considering it a weak La Niña. If you follow my blog that would be clear....just like I considered last year borderline moderate. All I am saying is that the ONI is one factor that should weigh in to how heavily you factor that indicator. I'm not using the CPC definition of a La Niña to forecast a big winter or anything....but I think it would give me pause in using that rule as my primary rationale for going with another death-star of a season.

I think seasonal forecasters in general (not directed at you) need to be mindful of being a bit more nuanced and less rigid in their forecasting conceptualizations.