2025-2026 ENSO

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 hours ago, CP_WinterStorm said:

The Euro's Copernicus actually has an IOD forecast for most models:

Good stuff. If that's the Indian Ocean anomalies during the Fall we can expect higher probability for a +WPO Winter

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The further into the Summer you go, the stronger the Jan-Feb PNA correlation is to PDO

 

[snowman19]

Look at this -PDO taking shape

It’s also one hell of a -PMM developing. Would not surprise me if we go weak La Niña. Cold-neutral is pretty much guaranteed

[PhiEaglesfan712]

11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Look at this -PDO taking shape

Taking shape? Haven't we've been in a -PDO for at least the last 5.5 years, since January 2020?

2020 -1.41 -1.48 -1.75 -1.32 -0.53 -0.75 -0.92 -1.33 -1.04 -0.62 -1.58 -0.99
2021 -0.61 -1.09 -1.67 -1.84 -2.04 -1.82 -2.00 -0.95 -1.96 -3.13 -2.75 -2.71
2022 -2.40 -1.91 -1.67 -2.09 -2.24 -1.32 -2.64 -2.38 -2.29 -1.81 -2.41 -2.21
2023 -1.24 -1.65 -2.45 -3.07 -2.42 -2.53 -2.52 -2.47 -2.99 -2.23 -1.79 -1.66
2024 -1.57 -1.33 -1.52 -2.11 -2.98 -3.15 -3.00 -2.91 -3.56 -3.80 -3.13 -2.03
2025 -1.28 -1.40 -1.12 -1.16 -1.71

[snowman19]

Taking shape? Haven't we've been in a -PDO for at least the last 5.5 years, since January 2020?

2020 -1.41 -1.48 -1.75 -1.32 -0.53 -0.75 -0.92 -1.33 -1.04 -0.62 -1.58 -0.992021 -0.61 -1.09 -1.67 -1.84 -2.04 -1.82 -2.00 -0.95 -1.96 -3.13 -2.75 -2.712022 -2.40 -1.91 -1.67 -2.09 -2.24 -1.32 -2.64 -2.38 -2.29 -1.81 -2.41 -2.212023 -1.24 -1.65 -2.45 -3.07 -2.42 -2.53 -2.52 -2.47 -2.99 -2.23 -1.79 -1.662024 -1.57 -1.33 -1.52 -2.11 -2.98 -3.15 -3.00 -2.91 -3.56 -3.80 -3.13 -2.032025 -1.28 -1.40 -1.12 -1.16 -1.71

We have but we appear to be going back into a severely negative PDO again

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

It’s also one hell of a -PMM developing. Would not surprise me if we go weak La Niña. Cold-neutral is pretty much guaranteed

I don't really care what the ONI does, I'm considering modest la Nina analogs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

57 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We have but we appear to be going back into a severely negative PDO again

I think the fluctuation earlier this year was the first sign of the longer term trend line beginning to sway upward...but you don't just go from 0-100 coming out of this....its going to be a 2 steps forward, one stap back deal protracted over several years.

[CP_WinterStorm]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the fluctuation earlier this year was the first sign of the longer term trend line beginning to sway upward...but you don't just go from 0-100 coming out of this....its going to be a 2 steps forward, one stap back deal protracted over several years.

I've noted that the JAMSTEC actually does a decent job at this distance with the overall configuration of the SSTA in the Pacific during the DJF period. That said, the current forecast makes a half assed effort at a PDO regime change during the upcoming DJF period:

Far from a solid +PDO but hopefully the severely negative period we're headed into, again, will be short lived.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, CP_WinterStorm said:

I've noted that the JAMSTEC actually does a decent job at this distance with the overall configuration of the SSTA in the Pacific during the DJF period. That said, the current forecast makes a half assed effort at a PDO regime change during the upcoming DJF period:

Far from a solid +PDO but hopefully the severely negative period we're headed into, again, will be short lived.

That makes sense to me....My early hunch is that we will have a strongly -EPO, and a near neutral to modestly +WPO....I think this regression is temporary and we will recommence the climb out of this.

[snowman19]

That makes sense to me....My early hunch is that we will have a strongly -EPO, and a near neutral to modeslty +WPO....I think this regression is temporary and we will recommence the climb out of this.

I think this will be a really big test of the cold-ENSO/+QBO correlating to a poleward ridge and cold ENSO/-QBO correlating to a flat/equatorial ridge theory and research that Eric Webb tweeted about extensively late last fall. If there is any validity to it, we should be able to see the evidence of that this upcoming cold season (Dec-Mar)

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I think this will be a really big test of the cold-ENSO/+QBO correlating to a poleward ridge and cold ENSO/-QBO correlating to a flat/equatorial ridge theory and research that Eric Webb tweeted about extensively late last fall. If there is any validity to it, we should be able to see the evidence of that this upcoming cold season (Dec-Mar)

Well, I gave you a list of easterly QBO/cool ENSO analogs a week or so back....the composite featured a ridge thatg was about as flat as a 50 year old weather dork's gut-

[snowman19]

Well, I gave you a list of easterly QBO/cool ENSO analogs a week or so back....the composite featured a ridge thatg was about as flat as a 50 year old weather dork's gut-

Yea, I mean if there’s any truth to it and we do in fact see a -ENSO/-QBO and a ridge into the North Pole come Dec-Mar, then we can call bullshit

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Taking shape? Haven't we've been in a -PDO for at least the last 5.5 years, since January 2020?

2020 -1.41 -1.48 -1.75 -1.32 -0.53 -0.75 -0.92 -1.33 -1.04 -0.62 -1.58 -0.99
2021 -0.61 -1.09 -1.67 -1.84 -2.04 -1.82 -2.00 -0.95 -1.96 -3.13 -2.75 -2.71
2022 -2.40 -1.91 -1.67 -2.09 -2.24 -1.32 -2.64 -2.38 -2.29 -1.81 -2.41 -2.21
2023 -1.24 -1.65 -2.45 -3.07 -2.42 -2.53 -2.52 -2.47 -2.99 -2.23 -1.79 -1.66
2024 -1.57 -1.33 -1.52 -2.11 -2.98 -3.15 -3.00 -2.91 -3.56 -3.80 -3.13 -2.03
2025 -1.28 -1.40 -1.12 -1.16 -1.71

PDO will probably approach -3 monthly again

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It's looking more and more likely that June will be the 9th straight +SOI month.. impressive for Neutral per ONI

24 Jun 2025	1017.08	1013.00	19.61	3.83	3.14
23 Jun 2025	1017.04	1013.25	17.57	3.71	3.03
22 Jun 2025	1016.71	1013.45	13.85	3.91	2.95

 

[LibertyBell]

On 6/24/2025 at 6:33 AM, bluewave said:

The extension of the record Aleutian Ridge closer to Japan has actually slowed the start of the rainy season there with the record heat.
 

 

Tokyo heat seems to match Long Island heat rather well!!

The last two days were truly historic here.

 

106.0 4:36 pm

102.6 1:00 pm

083 
SXUS71 KOKX 251708
RERJFK

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
107 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025

...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AND RECORD MONTHLY HIGH 
TEMPERATURE TIED AT JOHN F. KENNEDY AIRPORT...

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 102 DEGREES SO FAR TODAY AT JOHN F. 
KENNEDY AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD OF 98 DEGREES, SET 
IN 1952. THIS ALSO TIES THE MONTHLY RECORD OF 102 SET YESTERDAY, 
JUNE 24TH 2025, MAKING TODAY TIED FOR THE HOTTEST JUNE DAY ON RECORD 
AT THIS SITE.

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TEMPERATURES 
CONTINUE TO RISE.

RECORDS GO BACK TO THE YEAR 1948 AT THIS CLIMATE STATION.

ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE 
NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI).

 

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYWOODM8

102.9

105.2

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYVALLE55

107.1

111.7

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYVALLE15

102.7

106.2

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYNEWYO2050

106.2

109.6

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYWOODM4

102.2

104.2

the last two days were truly historic.  I did a quick survey of local weather stations (the micronet does not save high low information, which is a drawback.)

the first and third weather stations in this list closely match my highs of 102.6 and 106.0 the last two days.  

 

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYWOODM8

102.9

105.2

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYVALLE55

107.1

111.7

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYVALLE15

102.7

106.2

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYNEWYO2050

106.2

109.6

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYWOODM4

102.2

104.2

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Tokyo heat seems to match Long Island heat rather well!!

The last two days were truly historic here.

 

106.0 4:36 pm

102.6 1:00 pm

083 
SXUS71 KOKX 251708
RERJFK

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
107 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025

...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AND RECORD MONTHLY HIGH 
TEMPERATURE TIED AT JOHN F. KENNEDY AIRPORT...

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 102 DEGREES SO FAR TODAY AT JOHN F. 
KENNEDY AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD OF 98 DEGREES, SET 
IN 1952. THIS ALSO TIES THE MONTHLY RECORD OF 102 SET YESTERDAY, 
JUNE 24TH 2025, MAKING TODAY TIED FOR THE HOTTEST JUNE DAY ON RECORD 
AT THIS SITE.

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TEMPERATURES 
CONTINUE TO RISE.

RECORDS GO BACK TO THE YEAR 1948 AT THIS CLIMATE STATION.

ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE 
NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI).

 

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYWOODM8

102.9

105.2

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYVALLE55

107.1

111.7

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYVALLE15

102.7

106.2

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYNEWYO2050

106.2

109.6

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYWOODM4

102.2

104.2

the last two days were truly historic.  I did a quick survey of local weather stations (the micronet does not save high low information, which is a drawback.)

the first and third weather stations in this list closely match my highs of 102.6 and 106.0 the last two days.  

 

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYWOODM8

102.9

105.2

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYVALLE55

107.1

111.7

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYVALLE15

102.7

106.2

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYNEWYO2050

106.2

109.6

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYWOODM4

102.2

104.2

My latest 104.0 temperature at 6:16 pm yesterday and my latest 102.0 temperature at 4:51 pm today

stayed above 100 yesterday until 6:55 pm and today until 5:10 pm

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Only the 2nd time Chicago has ever had 3 straight lows 78+ in June, the other time being 1931. 

The ridge ended up effecting northern parts of the US more relative to average, which makes sense because it's +NAO driven, and wavelengths are shorter in the Summer, making the highest correlated area to the north. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Only the 2nd time Chicago has ever had 3 straight lows 78+ in June, the other time being 1931. 

The ridge ended up effecting northern parts of the US more relative to average, which makes sense because it's +NAO driven, and wavelengths are shorter in the Summer, making the highest correlated area to the north. 

JFK temperatures if anything underdone for yesterday.

this area has been the hot spot the last 2 days.  JFK if anything underdone on temperatures yesterday, there were widespread 105-106 temperatures across southern Queens and southern Nassau yesterday.

102 today is closer to reality, it bounced back and forth between 102 and 103 here today

[so_whats_happening]

Definitely was an impressive cycle looks like we are dropping off pretty decent over the last few months.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Definitely was an impressive cycle looks like we are dropping off pretty decent over the last few months.

Will be interesting to see if we see a change in the Pacific pattern over the next 1-2 years. 

Solar cycle +12 months

Solar cycle +24 months

I do think there is higher likelihood for El Nino in 26-27 and/or 27-28

[so_whats_happening]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Will be interesting to see if we see a change in the Pacific pattern over the next 1-2 years. 

Solar cycle +12 months

Solar cycle +24 months

I do think there is higher likelihood for El Nino in 26-27 and/or 27-28

Yea Im thinking we try 26-27 not sure on intensity but that can be determined.

Here is how this cycle compares to the last few. We may be trying to go to a more active cycle in terms of sunspots since we hit our low in the prior.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

15 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Yea Im thinking we try 26-27 not sure on intensity but that can be determined.

Here is how this cycle compares to the last few. We may be trying to go to a more active cycle in terms of sunspots since we hit our low in the prior.

2003-2022 was definitely a low sunspot time, lowest 20-year period since before the 1900s I think. It may have something to do with the higher than average La Nina frequency during that time.  This cycle was a big shift up. I'm actually surprised that the numbers aren't higher because of how many times the Aurora moved towards the tropics.. I don't think that has ever happened before.   

[so_whats_happening]

15 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

2003-2022 was definitely a low sunspot time, lowest 20-year period since before the 1900s I think. It may have something to do with the higher than average La Nina frequency during that time.  This cycle was a big shift up. I'm actually surprised that the numbers aren't higher because of how many times the Aurora moved towards the tropics.. I don't think that has ever happened before.   

Maybe for the bolded but we also just saw an extended La Nina like pattern emerge at the start of this cycle. Numbers and intensity though are two different things. We had some rather intense flares occur over the last year but numbers overall seemed to be about on par with what is near the 'average' amount based on the number of cycles we have seen.

Cycle 24 started off as an El Nino and in fact had a strong Nino at that followed by another significant one just after peak.

Cycle 23 also started off in an El Nino quickly to La Nina and then a moderate Nino just after peak (2002-03) so im not sure there is too much correlation going on there.

Cycle 23 was double that of 24.

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

I mean if we extended this all the way to 1750 we would actually be seeing while this year was active the overall numbers are still in a decline mode over the 50+ years. Wonder if start to see it trend up in the upcoming cycles?

[so_whats_happening]

3 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Maybe for the bolded but we also just saw an extended La Nina like pattern emerge at the start of this cycle. Numbers and intensity though are two different things. We had some rather intense flares occur over the last year but numbers overall seemed to be about on par with what is near the 'average' amount based on the number of cycles we have seen.

Cycle 24 started off as an El Nino and in fact had a strong Nino at that followed by another significant one just after peak.

Cycle 23 also started off in an El Nino quickly to La Nina and then a moderate Nino just after peak (2002-03) so im not sure there is too much correlation going on there.

Cycle 23 was double that of 24.

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

I mean if we extended this all the way to 1750 we would actually be seeing while this year was active the overall numbers are still in a decline mode over the 50+ years. Wonder if start to see it trend up in the upcoming cycles?

I wonder though if we put this with data about hurricanes either globally or solely the Atlantic if we can see some interesting trends come about.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I think Gawx has done research correlating the Solar cycle with ENSO states. I think he found out that there might be a few year lag for highest correlation.. he posted it in ENSO threads in previous years (or maybe I am thinking of the NAO). 

Thanks for the solar data by the way, that is actually really hard to find! 

[so_whats_happening]

10 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think Gawx has done research correlating the Solar cycle with ENSO states. I think he found out that there might be a few year lag for highest correlation.. he posted it in ENSO threads in previous years (or maybe I am thinking of the NAO). 

Thanks for the solar data by the way, that is actually really hard to find! 

No worries here is the other site I used for the in comparison years.

https://solen.info/solar/index.html

Im sure I have more elsewhere in my bookmarks but there are a lot of saved bookmarks to go through lol