2025-2026 ENSO

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 hours ago, CP_WinterStorm said:

The Euro's Copernicus actually has an IOD forecast for most models:

Good stuff. If that's the Indian Ocean anomalies during the Fall we can expect higher probability for a +WPO Winter

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The further into the Summer you go, the stronger the Jan-Feb PNA correlation is to PDO

 

[snowman19]

Look at this -PDO taking shape

It’s also one hell of a -PMM developing. Would not surprise me if we go weak La Niña. Cold-neutral is pretty much guaranteed

[PhiEaglesfan712]

11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Look at this -PDO taking shape

Taking shape? Haven't we've been in a -PDO for at least the last 5.5 years, since January 2020?

2020 -1.41 -1.48 -1.75 -1.32 -0.53 -0.75 -0.92 -1.33 -1.04 -0.62 -1.58 -0.99
2021 -0.61 -1.09 -1.67 -1.84 -2.04 -1.82 -2.00 -0.95 -1.96 -3.13 -2.75 -2.71
2022 -2.40 -1.91 -1.67 -2.09 -2.24 -1.32 -2.64 -2.38 -2.29 -1.81 -2.41 -2.21
2023 -1.24 -1.65 -2.45 -3.07 -2.42 -2.53 -2.52 -2.47 -2.99 -2.23 -1.79 -1.66
2024 -1.57 -1.33 -1.52 -2.11 -2.98 -3.15 -3.00 -2.91 -3.56 -3.80 -3.13 -2.03
2025 -1.28 -1.40 -1.12 -1.16 -1.71

[snowman19]

Taking shape? Haven't we've been in a -PDO for at least the last 5.5 years, since January 2020?

2020 -1.41 -1.48 -1.75 -1.32 -0.53 -0.75 -0.92 -1.33 -1.04 -0.62 -1.58 -0.992021 -0.61 -1.09 -1.67 -1.84 -2.04 -1.82 -2.00 -0.95 -1.96 -3.13 -2.75 -2.712022 -2.40 -1.91 -1.67 -2.09 -2.24 -1.32 -2.64 -2.38 -2.29 -1.81 -2.41 -2.212023 -1.24 -1.65 -2.45 -3.07 -2.42 -2.53 -2.52 -2.47 -2.99 -2.23 -1.79 -1.662024 -1.57 -1.33 -1.52 -2.11 -2.98 -3.15 -3.00 -2.91 -3.56 -3.80 -3.13 -2.032025 -1.28 -1.40 -1.12 -1.16 -1.71

We have but we appear to be going back into a severely negative PDO again

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

It’s also one hell of a -PMM developing. Would not surprise me if we go weak La Niña. Cold-neutral is pretty much guaranteed

I don't really care what the ONI does, I'm considering modest la Nina analogs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

57 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We have but we appear to be going back into a severely negative PDO again

I think the fluctuation earlier this year was the first sign of the longer term trend line beginning to sway upward...but you don't just go from 0-100 coming out of this....its going to be a 2 steps forward, one stap back deal protracted over several years.

[CP_WinterStorm]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the fluctuation earlier this year was the first sign of the longer term trend line beginning to sway upward...but you don't just go from 0-100 coming out of this....its going to be a 2 steps forward, one stap back deal protracted over several years.

I've noted that the JAMSTEC actually does a decent job at this distance with the overall configuration of the SSTA in the Pacific during the DJF period. That said, the current forecast makes a half assed effort at a PDO regime change during the upcoming DJF period:

Far from a solid +PDO but hopefully the severely negative period we're headed into, again, will be short lived.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, CP_WinterStorm said:

I've noted that the JAMSTEC actually does a decent job at this distance with the overall configuration of the SSTA in the Pacific during the DJF period. That said, the current forecast makes a half assed effort at a PDO regime change during the upcoming DJF period:

Far from a solid +PDO but hopefully the severely negative period we're headed into, again, will be short lived.

That makes sense to me....My early hunch is that we will have a strongly -EPO, and a near neutral to modestly +WPO....I think this regression is temporary and we will recommence the climb out of this.

[snowman19]

That makes sense to me....My early hunch is that we will have a strongly -EPO, and a near neutral to modeslty +WPO....I think this regression is temporary and we will recommence the climb out of this.

I think this will be a really big test of the cold-ENSO/+QBO correlating to a poleward ridge and cold ENSO/-QBO correlating to a flat/equatorial ridge theory and research that Eric Webb tweeted about extensively late last fall. If there is any validity to it, we should be able to see the evidence of that this upcoming cold season (Dec-Mar)

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I think this will be a really big test of the cold-ENSO/+QBO correlating to a poleward ridge and cold ENSO/-QBO correlating to a flat/equatorial ridge theory and research that Eric Webb tweeted about extensively late last fall. If there is any validity to it, we should be able to see the evidence of that this upcoming cold season (Dec-Mar)

Well, I gave you a list of easterly QBO/cool ENSO analogs a week or so back....the composite featured a ridge thatg was about as flat as a 50 year old weather dork's gut-

[snowman19]

Well, I gave you a list of easterly QBO/cool ENSO analogs a week or so back....the composite featured a ridge thatg was about as flat as a 50 year old weather dork's gut-

Yea, I mean if there’s any truth to it and we do in fact see a -ENSO/-QBO and a ridge into the North Pole come Dec-Mar, then we can call bullshit

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Taking shape? Haven't we've been in a -PDO for at least the last 5.5 years, since January 2020?

2020 -1.41 -1.48 -1.75 -1.32 -0.53 -0.75 -0.92 -1.33 -1.04 -0.62 -1.58 -0.99
2021 -0.61 -1.09 -1.67 -1.84 -2.04 -1.82 -2.00 -0.95 -1.96 -3.13 -2.75 -2.71
2022 -2.40 -1.91 -1.67 -2.09 -2.24 -1.32 -2.64 -2.38 -2.29 -1.81 -2.41 -2.21
2023 -1.24 -1.65 -2.45 -3.07 -2.42 -2.53 -2.52 -2.47 -2.99 -2.23 -1.79 -1.66
2024 -1.57 -1.33 -1.52 -2.11 -2.98 -3.15 -3.00 -2.91 -3.56 -3.80 -3.13 -2.03
2025 -1.28 -1.40 -1.12 -1.16 -1.71

PDO will probably approach -3 monthly again