2025-2026 ENSO

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^I would say there was more +PNA, low pressure over the north Pacific in those two analogs. Feb 2014 looks like a pretty good N. Hemisphere 500mb match though. It takes about 6 days for a Pacific-PNA change to work its way to the SE ridge. We had a strong Aleutian High late Jan-early Feb.  The south-based +NAO kept the SE ridge amped after that, without a major North Pacific trough present to cut it down.  AO 50 degrees further north is not a big deal when there are strong anomalies closer, and the Pacific had a large part to do with the colder patterns in those 2 analogs. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Importance of the +PNA for coastal low tracks bluewave

Low's hug the coast in that pattern. CPC says it was +PNA, but the 500mb maps don't show that. We didn't have that piece in February. We had that piece in Feb 2016, and somewhat Feb 2014 (but it was much more -WPO in Feb 2014). 

WPO air temp correlation in Feb (opposite) - +200dm anomaly overpowered and kept Feb 2014 cold. 

+NAO was also further east - -200dm over England in Feb 2014. This one was closer to us. 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

AAO correlation worked out last year - It was a very negative Aug/Sept AAO, and that rolled forward to a pretty strong signal on a cold December/January, -AO, North Pole was +0.5 correlation rolled forward. 

AAO has been very positive March - May, all but like 5 days positive. 

How that rolls forward to the following N. Hemisphere Winter

+9 months is a lot of time, but it's an ok signal. This is what I would think +AAO would look like down the line (slight correlation with AO/EPO)