KakashiHatake2000 Posted Sunday at 08:57 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:57 PM Tomorrow Monday has marginal out for majority of middle and east tn 5% wind risk . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Sunday at 10:09 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 10:09 PM HORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 There are 2 main concerns through Tuesday: heat and storms. A Heat Advisory was issued for our far western counties starting this afternoon, then expanding across most areas west of the Plateau starting Monday morning. The advisory will last until 8 PM Tuesday. The hot ridge over the Rockies and High Plains will bulge eastward, giving areas west of the Plateau highs in the mid 90s with heat index values well over 100. This results in Heat Risk levels reaching Major Risk level (3 out of 4). Although atmospheric moisture has decreased since yesterday with precipitable water values dropping below 2 inches, near surface moisture remains high with dew points in the 70s. Dew points can be expected to remain high through Tuesday and those PW values will climb again giving fuel for storms with heavy rainfall. So what are the details on storms? First of all, in this hot, steamy environment with some residual boundaries, we cannot rule out some storms any time, especially in the heat of the afternoon and evening. But, models are continuing to indicate an overnight MCS for tonight into early Monday morning. There are inconsistencies with track and intensity, but that is typical of this pattern. We know that very moist and unstable conditions will be present into the late night hours, so any storms that dive down from KY will have the potential to produce damaging winds and localized flash flooding. At this time, we are under a level 2 out of 5 severe risk north of I-40 with a level 1 out of 5 to the south. It would be wise to monitor updates through the evening and be prepared for possible severe storms in the overnight hours. Along with locally developing scattered storms, we cannot rule out another big storm cluster later Monday. Basically, we need to be watching to our north northwest through the next 48 hours. As we wrap up Tuesday, we will see a medium to high chance for storms ahead of a cold front. This Tuesday evening frontal passage will turn off the storms and drop temperatures to normal levels for the rest of the week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KakashiHatake2000 Posted Sunday at 10:28 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:28 PM Spc has McD out for counties in south ky and also Clarksville and Robertson counties in tn watch probabilities 80%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KakashiHatake2000 Posted yesterday at 01:15 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:15 AM SPC just upgraded middle TN and west TN in slight risk with I’m guessing 30 wind now or 15 percent wind also severe thunderstorm watch issued . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted yesterday at 02:07 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:07 AM Looks like the MCS will just miss my area to the west. Hopefully there's not much wind damage in the mid-state from it. The heat was unbelievable today along the Mississippi river, under the heat dome. I saw some HI temperatures up towards 120 along the river from Memphis to St Louis. The hotter it us, usually the stronger the winds without the storm complex. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted yesterday at 03:15 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 03:15 AM should get a good light show in the next few min,plenty of instability to work with 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted yesterday at 03:31 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:31 AM Looks like there's been some expansion upstream of me in Kentucky, so it may actually storm here. As Jax noted, probably gonna be a ton of lightning and thunder with these. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KakashiHatake2000 Posted yesterday at 03:33 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:33 AM Heck yeah I’m down for that yeah there more thunderstorms developing in ky sliding on down . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted yesterday at 04:44 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:44 AM The storm is probably 35 miles north of me but the thunder is already pretty loud and frequent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted yesterday at 04:48 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 04:48 AM 1 hour ago, John1122 said: Looks like there's been some expansion upstream of me in Kentucky, so it may actually storm here. As Jax noted, probably gonna be a ton of lightning and thunder with these. See what happens,there is a statinonary boundary into Southern KY,with A MCS diving down,shouldnt be severe now,just a drought buster 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted yesterday at 04:55 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:55 AM 5 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: See what happens,there is a statinonary boundary into Southern KY,with A MCS diving down,shouldnt be severe now,just a drought buster I always worry about really strong winds with these, especially when it's really warm ahead of them. Always feels like there's that downburst potential. Hopefully it's just a hard rainer like you said. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted yesterday at 04:55 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 04:55 AM 9 minutes ago, John1122 said: The storm is probably 35 miles north of me but the thunder is already pretty loud and frequent. Maybe you can get some better convevtion if you havent beem touched,dunno https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G19§or=smv&band=EXTENT3&length=24&dim=1&refresh=true 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KakashiHatake2000 Posted yesterday at 05:04 AM Share Posted yesterday at 05:04 AM Had some thunder earlier east of 65 was quite noisy but pleasant I’ll take another round of rain and thunder peaceful yep ikr was quite hot and steamy out today also looking on satellite looks like there’s a complex diving down from east ky . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted yesterday at 05:09 AM Share Posted yesterday at 05:09 AM The thunder is almost continuous to my north right now. I've got one dog who hates storms and she's just beside herself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KakashiHatake2000 Posted yesterday at 05:14 AM Share Posted yesterday at 05:14 AM Oh wow hope you and your dog stay safe also stays calm too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted yesterday at 05:41 AM Share Posted yesterday at 05:41 AM Absolutely drenching rain and thunder but after the first burst the wind isn't as bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KakashiHatake2000 Posted yesterday at 06:09 AM Share Posted yesterday at 06:09 AM Marginal risk issued here with enh and slgt up north 2% tornado in north area 30-15-5% damaging wind with cig1 hatching also 15-5% hail risk also could have possible upgrades . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KakashiHatake2000 Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago Marginal risk issued for TN just for 5% wind slight risk is there for border of TN area . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago Another MCS is rolling this way. MRX isn't sure if it will make it but it looks way healthier than hi res models keep showing it after a few hours. I suspect it's going to make it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KakashiHatake2000 Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago I hope so too for a good light show . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago Another MCS is rolling this way. MRX isn't sure if it will make it but it looks way healthier than hi res models keep showing it after a few hours. I suspect it's going to make it. Looks like it is heading right for you. HRRR still doesn’t have it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KakashiHatake2000 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Spc has d1 slight risk out with also marginal for eastern middle and east tn Cumberland plateau parts of i65 corridor for 5-15% wind and 5% hail no 2% tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Caught the tail end of the cluster of storms that moved SE out of KY this morning. It kind of split my house and went east and west, but at my office in downtown Morristown it came a flood literally. Over an inch in 15min with lots of lightning. Apparently there was some hail just to my NW in Grainger Co but not so much here in town. Just a fast as it came in, it went out, and all the clouds cleared out with bright sunshine. Man is it muggy out there now! 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KakashiHatake2000 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago New SPC update brings 2 percent tornado into east tn and 5% tornado north eastern tn some adjustments to wind 5-15% and 5% hail . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Thank you Jed for the reports. Morristown did more before 11am than most of us will do all day! The humidity is just plain gross today. Every summer we have a few of these 75 Td nuthouse days where it never mixes out. Gorgeous! said nobody ever. From MRX which I believe is public and it lines up with SPC 2% (and 5% simultaneous posts) Main concern will be damaging winds up to 60 mph and hail up to 1 inch. A tornado or two is possible My first reaction was surprise. I've been so focused on temperatures, but a look upstairs reveals how we get 2%. Low levels are all veered off; but quite importantly, upper levels are nearly straight north. That's enough turning. Kinematics are only modest but any lone cell could at least put on a structure show. Let's do this! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago They put my area in the severe t storm watch but I'm on the western edge of it. So not sure I'll get anything. The MCS complex last night wasn't as strong as the one the night before last. It was just rain by the time it crossed my area and I got .20 from it. The night before I got .80 in about 30 minutes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Tornado Warning just west of Kingsport. Tornado Warning TNC059-073-163-179-VAC169-282045- /O.NEW.KMRX.TO.W.0003.260728T2006Z-260728T2045Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Morristown TN 406 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026 The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southwestern Sullivan County in east Tennessee... Northeastern Hawkins County in east Tennessee... Northwestern Washington County in east Tennessee... Northeastern Greene County in east Tennessee... South central Scott County in southwestern Virginia... * Until 445 PM EDT. * At 406 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Surgoinsville, or 13 miles west of Gate City, moving southeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Surgoinsville around 410 PM EDT. Kingsport around 420 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Telford, Sullivan Gardens, Fall Branch, Leesburg, Mount Carmel, Okolona, Limestone, Church Hill, and Bays Mountain Park. This includes the following highways... Interstate 26 in Tennessee between mile markers 3 and 17. Interstate 81 in Tennessee between mile markers 43 and 59. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3640 8237 3619 8262 3657 8289 3659 8284 3659 8288 3660 8287 3665 8279 TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 314DEG 22KT 3657 8281 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN $$ DH 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KakashiHatake2000 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Two tornado warnings now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted 54 minutes ago Share Posted 54 minutes ago Bays Mt band area for that Tornado warning. Darn good hook on it too: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted 47 minutes ago Share Posted 47 minutes ago Looks like coming across Chimney top Mt might have messed up its circulation: https://i.imgur.com/LHc2SAr.mp4 I tried to catch it on TDOT cameras, but the closest one "Dark Hollow Rd" was aimed north at the time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now