TV Severe Weather2025-?

[KakashiHatake2000]

Tomorrow Monday has marginal out for majority of middle and east tn 5% wind risk


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[jaxjagman]

HORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

There are 2 main concerns through Tuesday: heat and storms.

A Heat Advisory was issued for our far western counties starting
this afternoon, then expanding across most areas west of the
Plateau starting Monday morning. The advisory will last until 8 PM
Tuesday. The hot ridge over the Rockies and High Plains will
bulge eastward, giving areas west of the Plateau highs in the mid
90s with heat index values well over 100. This results in Heat
Risk levels reaching Major Risk level (3 out of 4). Although
atmospheric moisture has decreased since yesterday with
precipitable water values dropping below 2 inches, near surface
moisture remains high with dew points in the 70s. Dew points can
be expected to remain high through Tuesday and those PW values
will climb again giving fuel for storms with heavy rainfall.

So what are the details on storms? First of all, in this hot,
steamy environment with some residual boundaries, we cannot rule
out some storms any time, especially in the heat of the afternoon
and evening. But, models are continuing to indicate an overnight
MCS for tonight into early Monday morning. There are
inconsistencies with track and intensity, but that is typical of
this pattern. We know that very moist and unstable conditions
will be present into the late night hours, so any storms that dive
down from KY will have the potential to produce damaging winds
and localized flash flooding. At this time, we are under a level
2 out of 5 severe risk north of I-40 with a level 1 out of 5 to
the south. It would be wise to monitor updates through the
evening and be prepared for possible severe storms in the
overnight hours.

Along with locally developing scattered storms, we cannot rule
out another big storm cluster later Monday. Basically, we need to
be watching to our north northwest through the next 48 hours. As
we wrap up Tuesday, we will see a medium to high chance for
storms ahead of a cold front. This Tuesday evening frontal passage
will turn off the storms and drop temperatures to normal levels
for the rest of the week.

[KakashiHatake2000]

Spc has McD out for counties in south ky and also Clarksville and Robertson counties in tn watch probabilities 80%


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[KakashiHatake2000]

SPC just upgraded middle TN and west TN in slight risk with I’m guessing 30 wind now or 15 percent wind also severe thunderstorm watch issued


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[John1122]

Looks like the MCS will just miss my area to the west. Hopefully there's not much wind damage in the mid-state from it. The heat was unbelievable today along the Mississippi river, under the heat dome. I saw some HI temperatures up towards 120 along the river from Memphis to St Louis. 

The hotter it us, usually the stronger the winds without the storm complex. 

[jaxjagman]

should get a good light show in the next few min,plenty of  instability to work with

[John1122]

Looks like there's been some expansion upstream of me in Kentucky, so it may actually storm here. As Jax noted, probably gonna be a ton of lightning and thunder with these. 

[KakashiHatake2000]

Heck yeah I’m down for that yeah there more thunderstorms developing in ky sliding on down


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[John1122]

The storm is probably 35 miles north of me but the thunder is already pretty loud and frequent.

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

Looks like there's been some expansion upstream of me in Kentucky, so it may actually storm here. As Jax noted, probably gonna be a ton of lightning and thunder with these. 

See what happens,there is a statinonary boundary into Southern KY,with A MCS diving down,shouldnt be severe now,just a drought buster

[John1122]

5 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

See what happens,there is a statinonary boundary into Southern KY,with A MCS diving down,shouldnt be severe now,just a drought buster

I always worry about really strong winds with these, especially when it's really warm ahead of them. Always feels like there's that downburst potential. Hopefully it's just a hard rainer like you said. 

[jaxjagman]

9 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The storm is probably 35 miles north of me but the thunder is already pretty loud and frequent.

Maybe you can get some better convevtion if you havent beem touched,dunno

 

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G19&sector=smv&band=EXTENT3&length=24&dim=1&refresh=true

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

Had some thunder earlier east of 65 was quite noisy but pleasant I’ll take another round of rain and thunder peaceful yep ikr was quite hot and steamy out today also looking on satellite looks like there’s a complex diving down from east ky


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[John1122]

The thunder is almost continuous to my north right now. I've got one dog who hates storms and she's just beside herself. 

[KakashiHatake2000]

Oh wow hope you and your dog stay safe also stays calm too


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[John1122]

Absolutely drenching rain and thunder but after the first burst the wind isn't as bad. 

[KakashiHatake2000]

Marginal risk issued here with enh and slgt up north 2% tornado in north area 30-15-5% damaging wind with cig1 hatching also 15-5% hail risk also could have possible upgrades


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[KakashiHatake2000]

Marginal risk issued for TN just for 5% wind slight risk is there for border of TN area


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[John1122]

Another MCS is rolling this way. MRX isn't sure if it will make it but it looks way healthier than hi res models keep showing it after a few hours. I suspect it's going to make it. 

[KakashiHatake2000]

I hope so too for a good light show


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[1234snow]

Another MCS is rolling this way. MRX isn't sure if it will make it but it looks way healthier than hi res models keep showing it after a few hours. I suspect it's going to make it. 

Looks like it is heading right for you. HRRR still doesn’t have it.

[KakashiHatake2000]

Spc has d1 slight risk out with also marginal for eastern middle and east tn Cumberland plateau parts of i65 corridor for 5-15% wind and 5% hail no 2% tornado threat


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[Jed33]

Caught the tail end of the cluster of storms that moved SE out of KY this morning. It kind of split my house and went east and west, but at my office in downtown Morristown it came a flood literally. Over an inch in 15min with lots of lightning. Apparently there was some hail just to my NW in Grainger Co but not so much here in town. Just a fast as it came in, it went out, and all the clouds cleared out with bright sunshine. Man is it muggy out there now!

[KakashiHatake2000]

New SPC update brings 2 percent tornado into east tn and 5% tornado north eastern tn some adjustments to wind 5-15% and 5% hail


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[nrgjeff]

Thank you Jed for the reports. Morristown did more before 11am than most of us will do all day!

The humidity is just plain gross today. Every summer we have a few of these 75 Td nuthouse days where it never mixes out. Gorgeous! said nobody ever. From MRX which I believe is public and it lines up with SPC 2% (and 5% simultaneous posts)

• Main concern will be damaging winds up to 60 mph and hail up to 1 inch.  A tornado or two is possible

My first reaction was surprise. I've been so focused on temperatures, but a look upstairs reveals how we get 2%. Low levels are all veered off; but quite importantly, upper levels are nearly straight north. That's enough turning. Kinematics are only modest but any lone cell could at least put on a structure show. Let's do this!

[John1122]

They put my area in the severe t storm watch but I'm on the western edge of it. So not sure I'll get anything. The MCS complex last night wasn't as strong as the one the night before last. It was just rain by the time it crossed my area and I got .20 from it. The night before I got .80 in about 30 minutes.