TV Severe Weather2025-?

[KakashiHatake2000]

Tomorrow Monday has marginal out for majority of middle and east tn 5% wind risk


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[jaxjagman]

HORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

There are 2 main concerns through Tuesday: heat and storms.

A Heat Advisory was issued for our far western counties starting
this afternoon, then expanding across most areas west of the
Plateau starting Monday morning. The advisory will last until 8 PM
Tuesday. The hot ridge over the Rockies and High Plains will
bulge eastward, giving areas west of the Plateau highs in the mid
90s with heat index values well over 100. This results in Heat
Risk levels reaching Major Risk level (3 out of 4). Although
atmospheric moisture has decreased since yesterday with
precipitable water values dropping below 2 inches, near surface
moisture remains high with dew points in the 70s. Dew points can
be expected to remain high through Tuesday and those PW values
will climb again giving fuel for storms with heavy rainfall.

So what are the details on storms? First of all, in this hot,
steamy environment with some residual boundaries, we cannot rule
out some storms any time, especially in the heat of the afternoon
and evening. But, models are continuing to indicate an overnight
MCS for tonight into early Monday morning. There are
inconsistencies with track and intensity, but that is typical of
this pattern. We know that very moist and unstable conditions
will be present into the late night hours, so any storms that dive
down from KY will have the potential to produce damaging winds
and localized flash flooding. At this time, we are under a level
2 out of 5 severe risk north of I-40 with a level 1 out of 5 to
the south. It would be wise to monitor updates through the
evening and be prepared for possible severe storms in the
overnight hours.

Along with locally developing scattered storms, we cannot rule
out another big storm cluster later Monday. Basically, we need to
be watching to our north northwest through the next 48 hours. As
we wrap up Tuesday, we will see a medium to high chance for
storms ahead of a cold front. This Tuesday evening frontal passage
will turn off the storms and drop temperatures to normal levels
for the rest of the week.

[KakashiHatake2000]

Spc has McD out for counties in south ky and also Clarksville and Robertson counties in tn watch probabilities 80%


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[KakashiHatake2000]

SPC just upgraded middle TN and west TN in slight risk with I’m guessing 30 wind now or 15 percent wind also severe thunderstorm watch issued


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[John1122]

Looks like the MCS will just miss my area to the west. Hopefully there's not much wind damage in the mid-state from it. The heat was unbelievable today along the Mississippi river, under the heat dome. I saw some HI temperatures up towards 120 along the river from Memphis to St Louis. 

The hotter it us, usually the stronger the winds without the storm complex. 

[jaxjagman]

should get a good light show in the next few min,plenty of  instability to work with

[John1122]

Looks like there's been some expansion upstream of me in Kentucky, so it may actually storm here. As Jax noted, probably gonna be a ton of lightning and thunder with these. 

[KakashiHatake2000]

Heck yeah I’m down for that yeah there more thunderstorms developing in ky sliding on down


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[John1122]

The storm is probably 35 miles north of me but the thunder is already pretty loud and frequent.

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

Looks like there's been some expansion upstream of me in Kentucky, so it may actually storm here. As Jax noted, probably gonna be a ton of lightning and thunder with these. 

See what happens,there is a statinonary boundary into Southern KY,with A MCS diving down,shouldnt be severe now,just a drought buster

[John1122]

5 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

See what happens,there is a statinonary boundary into Southern KY,with A MCS diving down,shouldnt be severe now,just a drought buster

I always worry about really strong winds with these, especially when it's really warm ahead of them. Always feels like there's that downburst potential. Hopefully it's just a hard rainer like you said. 

[jaxjagman]

9 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The storm is probably 35 miles north of me but the thunder is already pretty loud and frequent.

Maybe you can get some better convevtion if you havent beem touched,dunno

 

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G19&sector=smv&band=EXTENT3&length=24&dim=1&refresh=true

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

Had some thunder earlier east of 65 was quite noisy but pleasant I’ll take another round of rain and thunder peaceful yep ikr was quite hot and steamy out today also looking on satellite looks like there’s a complex diving down from east ky


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[John1122]

The thunder is almost continuous to my north right now. I've got one dog who hates storms and she's just beside herself. 

[KakashiHatake2000]

Oh wow hope you and your dog stay safe also stays calm too


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[John1122]

Absolutely drenching rain and thunder but after the first burst the wind isn't as bad.