KakashiHatake2000 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 there was a spc update earlier today and slight risk is now south of us into mississippi and portion of alabama and us and possibly kentucky in marginal and general thunder risk i didnt really think its worth posting since a new day 1 outlook will be posted tomorrow morning at 1 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Apparently, a few tornadoes happened with that on Friday. Twas an interesting system to start off January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KakashiHatake2000 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 yes 13 tornadoes with that system apparently unfortunately with one injury however no other injuries or fatalities were reported 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 31 Author Share Posted January 31 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 31 Author Share Posted January 31 I'm ready for severe now https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/dataviewer/?hzrd=tor§=conus&intv=day&pd=&thrs=0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 On 1/30/2026 at 8:01 PM, jaxjagman said: I'm ready for severe now https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/dataviewer/?hzrd=tor§=conus&intv=day&pd=&thrs=0 That’s interesting. I hope there is no more tree damage for the mid state from severe weather. With all the loss of trees the last few years & from this ice storm. I’m saying mercy to Mother Nature. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Chase early. Chase often! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 4 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Chase early. Chase often! Definitely a strong signal showing up at this range. Is the Nino finally kicking in w/ the STJ starting to show some life? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 The last 2 days I’ve been in the areas where the ice storm was most severe. It will take months to clean up all the trees & power poles. It’s much worse than the 94 ice storm. Many roads are 1 lane still from trees down everywhere. The ground being beyond saturated is also making it very difficult to get into areas to remove debris & trees. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 My guess is that level of damage is why Mississippi is slow to get restored. NES is close to fully restored. @Carvers Gap my charts above are just as likely to be fulfilled by the polar jet as the STJ since it's still early season. I'm agnostic as to which. I just want action, ha! All, if we transferred some of the CAPE from the February thread we'd have a decent shot at severe. Sorry it's Free for All Friday! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 On 2/5/2026 at 9:44 AM, nrgjeff said: Chase early. Chase often! If somehow the GAAM can stay coupled with the MJO,it could get interesting even in Feb,tho you'd like to still see this in March 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 On 2/5/2026 at 9:44 AM, nrgjeff said: Chase early. Chase often! Has a close partner 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 Getting into Climo each day,right now it looks possibly like a active period coming up past the mid month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatheriscool Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 minute ago, jaxjagman said: Getting into Climo each day,right now it looks possibly like a active period coming up past the mid month. We need rain but we dont need alot at once especially since area creeks/streams are full of debris from ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 29 minutes ago, Weatheriscool said: We need rain but we dont need alot at once especially since area creeks/streams are full of debris from ice storm. I agree,i'm glad CPC switched from the ONI to the RONI.This changes somewhat how you look at analogs. I.E in 2024 and 2005 the ONI showed into OND a more neutral ENSO,while the RONI both years mentioned showed it was actually a moderate NINA https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted 5 hours ago Author Share Posted 5 hours ago Headed to Jacksonville in the morning to visit,not sure ill make it there in time for severe.Wife has to do something in the morning before we can leave Next week if we can get moisture we could possibly get some strong storms towards the end of the work week,much depends on where the subtropical ridge is at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago We are at the point in the season where I'm more interested in severe than snow. Of course I'm in Chattanooga. If I was up I-81 I'd have a better attitude. Great thing about next week is that little lead trough through the Great Lakes. Our southern trough is not the first; so, moisture return will already be in progress. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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