Interior NW & NE Burbs 2025

[Hitman]

1.5” so far

 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

53 minutes ago, Hitman said:

1.5” so far

 

1.57 inches Highland Mills. 

[gravitylover]

Crazy that I'm double you guys, 2.9 here.

[IrishRob17]

1.50"

[BxEngine]

1.7ish, def over 2” at work, the bronx was a mess.

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, BxEngine said:

1.7ish, def over 2” at work, the bronx was a mess.

Meh, anyone get 5”+? Sounds like a bust to me…

[hudsonvalley21]

2.03” is the total here.

[xram]

2.15" event total

[gravitylover]

2.9  I was at the edge of that N/S stripe of his 2s and low 3s. It was higher just east of me as we got a backfeed of wetness that just kept going for hours after the main body moved out. 

[IrishRob17]

If you want to trust the Euro snow map a week out (one can't), those of us in Orange County will have some shoveling to do.

[Hitman]

29f.  First freeze of the season.  And so it begins

[IrishRob17]

1 minute ago, Hitman said:

29f.  First freeze of the season.  And so it begins

Just posted in the other thread, heavy frost this morning, low of 26, 27 now. 

[gravitylover]

 .22 

[IrishRob17]

.33

[xram]

.26" here

[Hitman]

.21” here

[NepaJames8602]

Nice hit of les here in the Poconos at 2,075' today. I was at work, but checking my cameras it pretty much snowed all day. Got home around 630 pm, and found about 3" inches on the deck, 2" inches on the grass and just spotty accumulations on the road. Not bad for Nov 11th.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Recorded 0.3 inches in early afternoon squall. How did the rest of the HV do?

[IrishRob17]

8 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Recorded 0.3 inches in early afternoon squall. How did the rest of the HV do?

I had various periods of flurries and snow showers during the day. The squall that came through around lunch time dropped visibility to 1/4 mile and left .2 on the board. 

[gravitylover]

It was basically just one squally period that left .2. At one point it was coming down hard enough to coat the edge of low traffic streets. 

[gravitylover]

I'm right at the tail end of the spit of snow moving through. It's kind of like visible virga. There are micro flakes floating around, it almost looks like gnats. lol

[IrishRob17]

Have booming thunder and a temp of 40, .18"

[BxEngine]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

Have booming thunder and a temp of 40, .18"

Yeah that was loud for a min or two. Wasnt expecting that. 

[IrishRob17]

8 hours ago, BxEngine said:

Yeah that was loud for a min or two. Wasnt expecting that. 

Probably had close to half a dozen booms and big flashes, total was .43"

[wdrag]

Pocono region across nw NJ and se NYS into sw CT 1AM-9AM Wednesday (tomorrow) morning 11/19. A 2-5 hour period of wet snow that could accumulate 1/2-1.5"-especially grass. Valley roads 600 feet or below just wet because of temps just above freezing but accumulations on untreated pavements expected for the hills where the temp will drop to 30, especially 1000 feet or higher. The northern extent of the snow shield is a little uncertain but prepare to slow down a bit in your early Wednesday morning travel. There ?might? be a 2 hour delay for high terrain schools north of I80. Overall minor impact anticipated. The southern extent of snow somewhere between I80 and I78 and it probably will melt on most pavements south of I80.

[IrishRob17]

35 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Pocono region across nw NJ and se NYS into sw CT 1AM-9AM Wednesday (tomorrow) morning 11/19. A 2-5 hour period of wet snow that could accumulate 1/2-1.5"-especially grass. Valley roads 600 feet or below just wet because of temps just above freezing but accumulations on untreated pavements expected for the hills where the temp will drop to 30, especially 1000 feet or higher. The northern extent of the snow shield is a little uncertain but prepare to slow down a bit in your early Wednesday morning travel. There ?might? be a 2 hour delay for high terrain schools north of I80. Overall minor impact anticipated. The southern extent of snow somewhere between I80 and I78 and it probably will melt on most pavements south of I80.

Thanks Walt. I’m thinking I’m a bit too far north for this little event, you concur? 

[IrishRob17]

2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Thanks Walt. I’m thinking I’m a bit too far north for this little event, you concur? 

The HRRR has me in the game though so we'll see what the trends might be today. @BxEngineloves the HRRR...

[wdrag]

Well here's the thing...  Globals overall have not held onto the structure of the oncoming short wave into confluence zone in NYS New England so have been depressed.  6z EC topped in favor of the 06-09z RRSFA, RAP, NAM3K and 12z HRRR.  

I sure hope the 12z/18 HRRR is not that far wrong... it could be too aggressive to the north but I expect a 2-4" stripe somewhere near I80 which would be a little south of the 12z HRRR axis.  Uncertainty of course but we have to make decisions on what we do.

So potentially embarrassing if it fails but this is what I updated locally.

Updating I84 corridor 9AM. Plowing will probably be needed for at least the higher elevations tomorrow morning from northeast PA through nw NJ/se NYS into at least southern CT and possibly Hartford Ashford. Too much short term modeling that is at the leading edge of mesoscale modeling is upping amounts and predicting a decent 5 hour event that will require adjusted traveling times.

 

Entire I84 region from the Poconos across nw NJ, se NYS into ag least the southern two thirds of CT 1AM-9AM Wednesday (tomorrow) morning. A 3-6 hour period of wet snow that likely accumulates 1-4"-especially grass. Valley roads 600 feet or below just wet because of temps just above freezing but accumulations on untreated pavements expected for the hills where the temp will drop to 30, especially 1000 feet or higher. The northern extent of the snow shield is a little uncertain but prepare for slower travel-delays in your early Wednesday morning travel. In my opinion there is an increasing chance of a 2 hour delay for high terrain schools I80 northward. Overall minor impact anticipated except during a period of heavier snow near dawn. The southern extent of snow somewhere between I80 and I78 and it probably will melt on most pavements south of I80. 

 

Monitor NWS forecasts and any advisory in their afternoon issuances. I suspect that their forecasts will become more formidable for our second accumulative snowfall of the season...and pavement covering too.  I just dont think a 30-40% chc of precipitation covers it for tonight in nw NJ-NYC.

 

Graphics are the NWS 7A snowfall forecast and the 12z HRRR which sort of mirrors the more conservative 06z EC. Click for clarity. 

[BxEngine]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

The HRRR has me in the game though so we'll see what the trends might be today. @BxEngineloves the HRRR...

I trust metsfan with crayons and a map of australia more than i trust the hrrr if it shows me getting snow

[wdrag]

I've seen some comments downplaying the HRRR. 18z vsn nearly identical to the 12z.    I think we have to think confluence zone enhancement-band. I see BGM NWS just issued an inch higher terrain.  

I wont say what will happen but I dont even think our NWS offices will know at 3AM tomorrow when final day products are issued, since very few ground truth reports at 2-3A. The radar should be telling. at 346PM I apologize for being somewhat curt about this knowledge aforehand of a product issuance, but not too many observers of weather, especially rural areas are up at 230AM providing ground truth.  ASOS snow isn't the best (Melting snow etc into liquid).  Best I can do is make vsby relationships and bright band relationships (research on DBZ conversions-snowfall rate relationships was done a long time ago by a good forecaster at ALB). 

Maybe I'll be wrong but I doubt if the HRRR is going to miss by more than inch or at worst 2. It should be slippery as outlined in the mid morning post. 

Pretty good 5H Vort advection toward morning in EPA with decent 8H FGEN and lift in sw flow aloft. A warm frontal wave. It's over before you can say 9AM. 

Edited at 347PM with my apology explanation.