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Mid to long range discussion- 2025


wncsnow
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 I don’t think that it’s an exaggeration to say that today’s Euro Weeklies colder changes in the aggregate for the E US are at least near the largest I can recall this entire season with 4 of the 5 weeks notably colder and only the other (Jan 5th-11th) staying about the same (pretty mild). 

 If you want to look specifically at the big changes in the ecmwf in-house maps, themselves, vs yesterday, you can go here to the main ENSO thread:

 

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I like Bam’s thinking the most. If you didn’t watch today’s LR video on YouTube, give it a watch. This is likely to be transient warmth followed by transient cold we’re seeing show up. @wncsnowis spot on with Bam’s comments. The pattern isn’t supportive for sustained cold + moisture (right now). I still think we need to move the Aleutian pig before that comes. Luckily, as we move past that week 2 period of Jan, we may finally get the help we need in that department with some tropical forcing.

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2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 

 I don’t think that it’s an exaggeration to say that today’s Euro Weeklies colder changes in the aggregate for the E US are at least near the largest I can recall this entire season with 4 of the 5 weeks notably colder and only the other (Jan 5th-11th) staying about the same (pretty mild). 

 If you want to look specifically at the big changes in the ecmwf in-house maps, themselves, vs yesterday, you can go here to the main ENSO thread:

 

@wncsnow

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On 12/20/2025 at 3:54 PM, GaWx said:

Today’s Euro Weeklies weeks all trended warmer than yesterday and AN for most of the US. No trending toward a +PNA mid-Jan like yesterday. Yesterday’s had NN in SE 1/12-2/1. One of the worst runs this season and hopefully coming days will reverse.

 

@Met1985

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