Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[Met1985]

25 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

This is exactly what I've been talking about this week. We've seen this time and time again.  And especially on the EURO We've seen even colder solutions in the mid range. Some people are gullible. 

[Met1985]

Whiplash anyone!

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[Met1985]

EPS supports the Euro and that's not a really warm look in the long range.

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[Met1985]

The old 10-15 day EPS rolled into the new 7-12 day forecast from the EPS. Again and again we've seen this especially this season and yes I'll die on this hill.

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[WNC_Fort]

Hopium back in the forums? I’m all for the cold but PLEASE let those that have been snow starved finally Cash in

[Met1985]

Just now, WNC_Fort said:

Hopium back in the forums? I’m all for the cold but PLEASE let those that have been snow starved finally Cash in

Ain't no hopium about it. Never a guarantee for snow especially yall that live in a snow hole.

[GaWx]

 

 I don’t think that it’s an exaggeration to say that today’s Euro Weeklies colder changes in the aggregate for the E US are at least near the largest I can recall this entire season with 4 of the 5 weeks notably colder and only the other (Jan 5th-11th) staying about the same (pretty mild). 

 If you want to look specifically at the big changes in the ecmwf in-house maps, themselves, vs yesterday, you can go here to the main ENSO thread:

 

[wncsnow]

But what will they say next run? The variability is crazy this year. 

[Met1985]

5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

But what will they say next run? The variability is crazy this year. 

We are seeing a trend though to colder and much colder. It's a trend not just one run.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Well, well, well…

[wncsnow]

2 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

We are seeing a trend though to colder and much colder. It's a trend not just one run.

Not on the Weeklies. Its been above average to below average to above average to average

[WinstonSalemArlington]

44 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

The old 10-15 day EPS rolled into the new 7-12 day forecast from the EPS. Again and again we've seen this especially this season and yes I'll die on this hill.

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We’ve seen it since at least mid July 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[Met1985]

16 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Not on the Weeklies. Its been above average to below average to above average to average

Mmmm did you not see Larry's post?

[WinstonSalemArlington]

New Year’s Eve Eve

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[wncsnow]

7 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Mmmm did you not see Larry's post?

The Weeklies literally just had a run of above average for the month of January a few days ago

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Eric Webb publicly repents 

[BooneWX]

I like Bam’s thinking the most. If you didn’t watch today’s LR video on YouTube, give it a watch. This is likely to be transient warmth followed by transient cold we’re seeing show up. @wncsnowis spot on with Bam’s comments. The pattern isn’t supportive for sustained cold + moisture (right now). I still think we need to move the Aleutian pig before that comes. Luckily, as we move past that week 2 period of Jan, we may finally get the help we need in that department with some tropical forcing.

[BooneWX]

For what it’s worth, Cosgrove and Bam are in the same boat. Cosgrove has been saying look out for mid-late Jan since early fall. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]