Roger Smith Posted March 25 Author Share Posted March 25 Above (meaning previously on page two) see scoring for March 2025 and eventually annual scoring update. Further back in Feb portion of thread, snowfall contest details have been updated to March 31st. Below, post your April forecasts ... anyone new thinking of entering, see original post for details (Jan contest). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 April DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 1.5 1.5 0.5 1.5 0.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 April DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.2 1.7 1.5 0.2 1.9 1.8 0.9 1.8 0.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxallannj Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 April DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -0.5 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 2.1 1.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -0.2 -0.2 0.3 -0.4 1.3 1.3 0.7 1.0 0.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +1.1 +1.3 +1.3 +0.7 +1.1 +1.3 +0.9 +1.6 +0.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 DCA: +1.0 NYC: +1.0 BOS: +1.0 ORD: +1.0 ATL: +2.0 IAH: +2.5 DEN: +2.0 PHX: +1.5 SEA: +2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 April DCA: -1.3 NYC: -1.8 BOS: -1.6 ORD: -0.7 ATL: +1.6 IAH: +1.1 DEN: +1.7 PHX: +1.9 SEA: +0.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -0.3 -0.8 -0.1 -2.4 1.1 0.6 -1.3 -0.6 0.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Thanks for doing it Roger. April DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.2 2.1 1.6 2.1 2.7 1.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted April 1 Author Share Posted April 1 -0.3 _ -0.5 _ -0.7 __ -0.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 __ -1.0 _ +2.7 __ 0.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +1.2 +1.1 +.8 +.9 +1.1 +1.2 +.8 +2.1 +.4 Sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 DCA: -0.8 NYC: -0.2 BOS: -0.4 ORD: -0.5 ATL: +0.2 IAH: +1.4 DEN: +1.2 PHX: +1.5 SEA: +0.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted April 3 Author Share Posted April 3 Forecasts for April 2025 FORECASTER _____________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH __DEN _PHX _SEA StormchaserChuck _______________ +1.7 _+1.8 _+1.6 __ +1.2 _ +2.1 _+1.6 __+2.1 _+2.7 _+1.0 Scotty Lightning __________________ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +0.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 __+0.5 _+1.5 _+0.5 hudsonvalley21 ____________________+1.2 _+1.7 _+1.5 __ +0.2 _+1.9 _+1.8 __+0.9 _+1.8 _+0.1 so_whats_happening ______________+1.2 _ +1.1 _ +0.8 __+0.9 _+1.1 _ +1.2 __+0.8 _+2.1 _+0.4 Tom _______________________________ +1.1 _ +1.3 _ +1.3 __+0.7 _ +1.1 _+1.3 __+0.9 _+1.6 _+0.7 RJay _______________________________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+2.0 _+2.5 __+2.0 _+1.5 _+2.0 ___ Consensus _________________+0.4 _+0.4_+0.7__-0.1 _+1.4 _+1.4__+0.9 _+1.7_+0.5 ___ Normal _________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 _ 0.0 DonSutherland1 ___________________ -0.2 _-0.2 _+0.3 __-0.4 _+1.3 _+1.3 __+0.7 _+1.0 _+0.4 Roger Smith _______________________ -0.3 _-0.5 _-0.7 __ -0.5 _+2.0 _+2.5 __-1.0 _+2.7 _ 0.0 RodneyS __________________________ -0.3 _-0.8 _-0.1 __ -2.4 _ +1.1 _ +0.6 __-1.3 _-0.6 _+0.8 wxallannj___________________________-0.5 _-0.7 _-0.5 __ -0.4 _+0.5 _+0.5 __+0.2 _+2.1 _+1.8 BKViking ___________________________-0.8 _-0.2 _-0.4 __ -0.5 _+0.2 _+1.4 __+1.2 _+1.5 _+0.5 wxdude64 _________________________ -1.3 _ -1.8 _ -1.6 __ -0.7 _+1.6 _+1.1 ___+1.7 _+1.9 _+0.4 ______ Persistence (Mar 2025) _____________+6.7 _+4.1 _+4.0 __+5.4 _+3.6 _+4.6 __+4.2 _+1.5 __0.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted April 16 Author Share Posted April 16 Anomalies to mid-April and projections ... __________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___ (anom Apr 1-15) _____+1.1 __ -2.0 _ -1.3 ___ -1.6 _ +3.3 _ +3.1 __ +1.2 _ +3.3 _ +1.0 ___ (anom Apr 1-25) ____ +3.3 __+1.0 _+1.3 ___+0.8 _ +4.2 _+4.4 __+1.1 _ +2.2 _ +1.3 ___ (p anom Apr 1-30) __+3.5 __+1.5 __+1.5 ___+1.5 _ +4.0 _ +4.0 __+1.5 _ +2.5 _ +1.5 ___ final anomalies ______+3.5 __+1.6__+2.2 ___+1.1 _ +4.5 _ +4.0 __+1.5 _ +2.5 _ +0.8 note: so far, IAH, DEN and PHX are all updated only to 27th or 28th and have no data available for last few days. ... the rest of these anomalies are confirmed to end of April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted April 16 Author Share Posted April 16 _ Preliminary scoring for April 2025 _ based on projected anomalies in previous post, most recent updates ... it may be a day or two before I can score IAH, DEN, PHX as CF6 files are missing last few days ... ... scores remain as previously estimated for those locations ... east, ORD and SEA are updated ... ... ATL also need to be updated, currently all raw scores for ATL are +10 but max-60 rule may restore most of them ... FORECASTER ____________________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA_west___ TOTALS StormchaserChuck _______________ 64 _ 96 _ 88 __ 248 __ 98 _ 62 _ 52 __212 _ 460 __88 _ 96 _ 96 __280 ____ 740 Scotty Lightning __________________ 60 _ 88 _ 76 __ 224 __ 88 _ 50 _ 50 __ 188 _ 412 __ 80 _ 80 _ 94 __ 254 ____ 666 hudsonvalley21 ___________________ 54 _ 98 _ 86 __ 238 __ 82 _ 58 _ 56 __ 196 _ 434 __ 88 _ 86 _ 86 __ 260 ____ 694 so_whats_happening _____________ 54 _ 90 _ 72 __ 216 __ 96 _ 42 _ 44 __ 182 _ 398 __ 86 _ 92 _ 92 __ 270 ____ 668 Tom _______________________________ 52 _ 94 _ 82 __ 228 __92 _ 42 _ 46 __ 180 _ 408 ___88 _ 82 _ 98 __ 268 ____ 676 RJay ______________________________ 50 _ 88 _ 76 __ 214 __ 98 _ 60 _ 70 __ 228 _ 442 __ 90 _ 80 _ 76 __ 246 ____ 688 ___ Consensus _________________38 _ 76 _ 70 __184 __ 76 _ 48 _ 48 __172 _ 356 __88 _ 84 _ 94__ 266 ___ 622 ___ Normal _________________________30 _ 68 _ 56 __ 154 __ 78 _ 20 _ 20 __ 118 __ 272 __ 70 _ 50 _ 84 __ 204 ____ 476 DonSutherland1 ___________________ 26 _ 64 _ 62 __ 152 __ 70 _ 46 _ 46 __ 162 __ 314 __ 84 _ 70 _ 92 __ 246 ____ 560 Roger Smith _______________________ 24 _ 58 _ 42 __ 124 __ 68 _ 60 _ 70 __ 198 _ 322 __ 50 _ 96 _ 84 __ 230 ____ 552 RodneyS __________________________ 24 _ 52 _ 54 __ 130 __ 30 _ 42 _ 32 __ 104 __ 234 __ 44 _ 38 _100 __ 182 ____416 wxallannj___________________________20 _ 54 _ 46 __ 120 __ 70 _ 30 _ 30 __ 130 __ 250 __ 74 _ 92 _ 80 __ 246 ____496 BKViking __________________________ 14 _ 64 _ 48 __ 126 __ 68 _ 24 _ 48 __ 140 __ 266 __ 94 _ 80 _ 94 __ 268 ____ 534 wxdude64 _________________________04 _ 32 _ 24 __ 060 __ 64 _ 52 _ 42 __ 158 __ 218 __ 96 _ 88 _ 92 __ 276 ____ 494 ______ Persistence (Mar 2025) _____________36 _ 50 _ 64 __ 150 __ 14 _ 92 _ 88 __ 194 _ 344 __ 46 _ 80 _ 84 __ 210 ____ 554 =================== Extreme forecast report DCA, ORD, BOS, ATL, IAH, PHX are wins for highest forecasts, based on preliminary estimates ... StormchaserChuck would take DCA, NYC, ORD (tied with RJay) and ATL and a share of PHX (with Roger Smith) for 4.0 net. RJay (net 1.0) and Roger Smith (net 1.0) share IAH. NYC _ at +1.6, hudsonvalley21 takes a win and StormchaserChuck a loss. Persistence does not participate but would have won ATL and PHX by a small margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted April 20 Author Share Posted April 20 === ::: [] <<<<<<< Annual Scoring for 2025 >>>>>>> [] ::: === ... April scoring to be adjusted (ATL, IAH, DEN, PHX not final yet) FORECASTER _________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH _ cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__ west __TOTALS ___ Consensus _______ 239 _286 _272 __797__280 _302 _240_822 _1619 _ 211 _234 _280__725 ___2344 so_whats_happening __269 _306 _236 __ 811 __272 _308 _241 __821 _ 1632 __200 _186 _300__ 686 ___2318 hudsonvalley21 _______ 223 _288 _300 __ 811 __226 _302 _251 __779 __1590 __238 _216 _270__ 724 ___2314 RJay __________________ 249 _340 _316 __905 __ 306 _308 _ 231 __ 845 _1750 __ 159 _154 _204__ 517 ___2267 Tom ___________________241 _280 _276 __ 797 __ 288 _232 _258 __778 _ 1575 __266 _222 _218__ 706 ___2281 wxallannj ______________217 _258 _264 __ 739 __308 _228 _222 __758 _1497 __ 236 _240 _259__ 735 ___2232 BKViking ______________ 181 _258 _230 __ 669 __292 _292 _235 __819 _ 1488 __257 _206 _274__ 737 ___2225 Scotty Lightning _______264 _270 _216 __ 750 __213 _204 _ 230 __ 647 _ 1397 __171 _258 _270__ 699 ___2096 StormchaserChuck ___ 241 _256 _236 __ 733 __200 _292 _ 185 __ 677 _ 1410 __225 _230 _223__678___2088 DonSutherland1 _______ 171 _234 _236 __ 641 __240 _264 _208 __ 712 _ 1353 __ 217 _208 _296__ 721 ___2074 wxdude64 _____________184 _226 _212 __ 622 __ 224_ 256 _206 __ 686 _ 1308 __231 _242 _260__733___2041 Roger Smith ___________204 _248 _228 __680 __ 248 _244 _222 __714 _ 1394 __ 110 _190 _ 271__ 571 ____1965 RodneyS ______________ 212 _218 _234 __ 664 __ 172 _204 _194 __ 570 _ 1234 __149 _226 _338__ 713 ___ 1947 ___ Normal _____________144 _220 _232 __ 596 __ 194 _084 _095 ___373 __ 969 __194 _220 _270__ 684 ___1653 maxim (2/4) ___________ 180 _ 152 _164 __ 496 ___ 96_ 120 _ 082 __ 298 __ 794 __ 92 _ 90 _ 135__ 317 ____ 1111 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- prorated total ... 2222 Persistence ______________90 _186 _250 __ 526 ___112 _182 _144 __ 438 _ 964 __ 58 _ 88 _ 210 __ 356 ____1320 ____________________________ _____ __ Best scores __ ^ incl tied for best score * incl 3 tied for best score ________________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTALS ___ Consensus ________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 so_whats_happening ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1^ __ 1^ __ 1 ___ 2 _____ 0 hudsonvalley21 _________ 0 __ 1* __ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1* ___0 __ 0 ___ 1^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 RJay ____________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2*__ 0 __ 1 *___ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Tom _____________________ 0 __ 1*__ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 1 ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Mar wxallannj _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 BKViking ________________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 2 __ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Scotty Lightning ________2^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1 ____0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 StormchaserChuck ______1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 2*__ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*__0 ___ 1 ____ 0 _Apr Don Sutherland 1 ________0 __ 1^__ 1^____ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1^__ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 wxdude64 ______________ 0 __ 0 __ 1^___ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 1 _ Jan Roger Smith _____________ 1^ __ 2^__ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___1 __ 2**__0 __ 1 ___ 0 __ 1*__ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 _ Feb RodneyS ________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1* __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 2 ____ 1 _____0 ___ Normal _______________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 maxim ___________________ 1 __ 0 __ 1^___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 1 _____ 0 ============================== Extreme forecasts So far, 22 of 36 ... 14 for warmest and 8 for coldest ... Jan 1-4, Feb 1-4, Mar 5-0, Apr 7-0 Forecaster _______________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr __ Total ___ adj for ties (*2 tied, ^3 tied) Roger Smith ______________ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1 _ 2**0 _ 5-2 ___ 4.0 - 2.0 Stormchaser Chuck _______0-0 _0-0 _0-1 _ 5*-2 __ 5-3 ___ 4.5 - 3.0 Scotty Lightning __________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 __ 3-0 ___3.0 - 0.0 maxim _____________________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 __ 3-0 ___2.33-0.0 Rodney S _________________ 2-1 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 3-1 ____2.5 - 1.0 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 __ 3-0 ____2.5 - 0.0 so_whats_happening _____ 1*-0 _1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 BKViking __________________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 Tom _______________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 Don Sutherland ___________ 1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____0.33-0.0 wxdude64 _________________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____0.33-0.0 Normal ____________________ 1-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-1 ____ 1.0 - 1.0 RJay _______________________ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _2**-0 _2-0 ___ 1.0-0.0 ========================================================= 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted April 25 Author Share Posted April 25 ^^ above find scoring for April (to be adjusted at end of April) ... ... below, post May forecasts ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 May (or May not) DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.5 0.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted Monday at 10:23 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:23 PM May’s Forecast, DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +0.8 + 0.6 +0.3 +1.4 +1.7 +1.2 +1.8 +2.1 -0.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxallannj Posted Wednesday at 08:35 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:35 AM May’s Forecast, DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +2.5 + 2.5 +2.5 +3.5 +1.3 +1.2 +1.0 +0.5 +0.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted Wednesday at 01:41 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:41 PM DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.3 0.8 0.9 0.2 -0.8 0.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted Wednesday at 02:15 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:15 PM DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD ___ATL __IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +0.6 +0.8 +0.8 +1.1 +0.4 +0.9 +0.8 +0.5 +0.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted Wednesday at 09:32 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:32 PM DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD ___ATL __IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.0 1.0 0.4 -1.8 0.2 0.7 1.0 -0.2 -0.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted yesterday at 02:48 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:48 AM DCA: +1.8 NYC: +1.9 BOS: +1.7 ORD: +2.1 ATL: +1.4 IAH: +1.1 DEN: +1.5 PHX: +0.5 SEA: +0.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted yesterday at 03:41 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:41 AM DCA: +1.4 NYC: +1.6 BOS: +1.8 ORD: +2.9 ATL: +0.4 IAH: -0.6 DEN: +1.1 PHX: +0.1 SEA: +1.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted yesterday at 05:43 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 05:43 AM +1.3 _ +1.4 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +0.7 _ +0.5 _ +2.7 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted yesterday at 05:55 AM Share Posted yesterday at 05:55 AM DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +1.4 +1.6 +1.7 +1.9 +.5 -.2 +1.5 +.3 +.5 Oh man almost forgot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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