Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,910
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Robin F. Charles
    Newest Member
    Robin F. Charles
    Joined

2025 forecast contests -- enter for May 2025 (deadline 06z May 1)


 Share

Recommended Posts

Above (meaning previously on page two) see scoring for March 2025 and eventually annual scoring update. 

Further back in Feb portion of thread, snowfall contest details have been updated to March 31st. 

Below, post your April forecasts ... anyone new thinking of entering, see original post for details (Jan contest). 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Forecasts for April 2025

 

FORECASTER _____________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH __DEN _PHX _SEA

StormchaserChuck _______________ +1.7 _+1.8 _+1.6 __ +1.2 _ +2.1 _+1.6 __+2.1 _+2.7 _+1.0

Scotty Lightning __________________ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +0.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 __+0.5 _+1.5 _+0.5

hudsonvalley21 ____________________+1.2 _+1.7 _+1.5 __ +0.2 _+1.9 _+1.8 __+0.9 _+1.8 _+0.1

so_whats_happening ______________+1.2 _ +1.1 _ +0.8 __+0.9 _+1.1 _ +1.2 __+0.8 _+2.1 _+0.4

Tom _______________________________ +1.1 _ +1.3 _ +1.3 __+0.7 _ +1.1 _+1.3 __+0.9 _+1.6 _+0.7

RJay _______________________________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+2.0 _+2.5 __+2.0 _+1.5 _+2.0

___ Consensus _________________+0.4 _+0.4_+0.7__-0.1 _+1.4 _+1.4__+0.9 _+1.7_+0.5

___ Normal _________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 _ 0.0

DonSutherland1 ___________________ -0.2 _-0.2 _+0.3 __-0.4 _+1.3 _+1.3 __+0.7 _+1.0 _+0.4

Roger Smith _______________________ -0.3 _-0.5 _-0.7 __ -0.5 _+2.0 _+2.5 __-1.0 _+2.7 _ 0.0

RodneyS __________________________ -0.3 _-0.8 _-0.1 __ -2.4 _ +1.1 _ +0.6 __-1.3 _-0.6 _+0.8

wxallannj___________________________-0.5 _-0.7 _-0.5 __ -0.4 _+0.5 _+0.5 __+0.2 _+2.1 _+1.8

BKViking ___________________________-0.8 _-0.2 _-0.4 __ -0.5 _+0.2 _+1.4 __+1.2 _+1.5 _+0.5

wxdude64 _________________________ -1.3 _ -1.8 _ -1.6 __ -0.7 _+1.6 _+1.1 ___+1.7 _+1.9 _+0.4

______

Persistence (Mar 2025) _____________+6.7 _+4.1 _+4.0 __+5.4 _+3.6 _+4.6 __+4.2 _+1.5 __0.0

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

Anomalies to mid-April and projections ...

__________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

___ (anom Apr 1-15) _____+1.1 __ -2.0 _ -1.3 ___ -1.6 _ +3.3 _ +3.1 __ +1.2 _ +3.3 _ +1.0

___ (anom Apr 1-25) ____ +3.3 __+1.0 _+1.3 ___+0.8 _ +4.2 _+4.4 __+1.1 _ +2.2 _ +1.3

___ (p anom Apr 1-30) __+3.5 __+1.5 __+1.5 ___+1.5 _ +4.0 _ +4.0 __+1.5 _ +2.5 _ +1.5 

___ final anomalies ______+3.5 __+1.6__+2.2 ___+1.1 _ +4.5 _ +4.0 __+1.5 _ +2.5 _ +0.8

note: so far, IAH, DEN and PHX are all updated only to 27th or 28th and have no data available for last few days.

... the rest of these anomalies are confirmed to end of April.  

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

_ Preliminary scoring for April 2025 _

 

based on projected anomalies in previous post, most recent updates

... it may be a day or two before I can score IAH, DEN, PHX as CF6 files are missing last few days ...

... scores remain as previously estimated for those locations ... east, ORD and SEA are updated ...

... ATL also need to be updated, currently all raw scores for ATL are +10 but max-60 rule may restore most of them ...

 

FORECASTER ____________________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA_west___ TOTALS

StormchaserChuck _______________ 64 _ 96 _ 88 __ 248 __ 98 _ 62 _ 52 __212 _ 460 __88 96 _ 96 __280 ____ 740

Scotty Lightning __________________ 60 _ 88 _ 76 __ 224 __ 88 _ 50 _ 50 __ 188 _ 412 __ 80 _ 80 _ 94 __ 254 ____ 666

hudsonvalley21 ___________________ 54 _ 98 _ 86 __ 238 __ 82 _ 58 _ 56 __ 196 _ 434 __ 88 _ 86 _ 86 __ 260 ____ 694

so_whats_happening _____________ 54 _ 90 _ 72 __ 216 __ 96 _ 42 _ 44 __ 182 _ 398 __ 86 _ 92 _ 92 __ 270 ____ 668

Tom _______________________________ 52 _ 94 _ 82 __ 228 __92 _ 42 _ 46 __ 180 _ 408 ___88 _ 82 _ 98 __ 268 ____ 676

RJay ______________________________ 50 _ 88 _ 76 __ 214 __ 98 _ 60 _ 70 __ 228 _ 442 __ 90 _ 80 _ 76 __ 246 ____ 688

___ Consensus _________________38 _ 76 _ 70 __184 __ 76 _ 48 _ 48 __172 _ 356 __88 _ 84 _ 94__ 266 ___ 622

___ Normal _________________________30 _ 68 _ 56 __ 154 __ 78 _ 20 _ 20 __ 118 __ 272 __ 70 _ 50 _ 84 __ 204 ____ 476

DonSutherland1 ___________________ 26 _ 64 _ 62 __ 152 __ 70 _ 46 _ 46 __ 162 __ 314 __ 84 _ 70 _ 92 __ 246 ____ 560

Roger Smith _______________________ 24 _ 58 _ 42 __ 124 __ 68 _ 60 _ 70 __ 198 _ 322 __ 50 _ 96 _ 84 __ 230 ____ 552

RodneyS __________________________ 24 _ 52 _ 54 __ 130 __ 30 _ 42 _ 32 __ 104 __ 234 __ 44 _ 38 _100 __ 182 ____416

wxallannj___________________________20 _ 54 _ 46 __ 120 __ 70 _ 30 _ 30 __ 130 __ 250 __ 74 _ 92 _ 80 __ 246 ____496

BKViking __________________________ 14 _ 64 _ 48 __ 126 __ 68 _ 24 _ 48 __ 140 __ 266 __ 94 _ 80 _ 94 __ 268 ____ 534

wxdude64 _________________________04 _ 32 _ 24 __ 060 __ 64 _ 52 _ 42 __ 158 __ 218 __ 96 _ 88 _ 92 __ 276 ____ 494

______

Persistence (Mar 2025) _____________36 _ 50 _ 64 __ 150 __ 14 _ 92 _ 88 __ 194 _ 344 __ 46 _ 80 _ 84 __ 210 ____ 554

 

===================

Extreme forecast report

DCA, ORD, BOS, ATL, IAH, PHX are wins for highest forecasts, based on preliminary estimates ...

StormchaserChuck would take DCA, NYC, ORD (tied with RJay) and ATL and a share of PHX (with Roger Smith) for 4.0 net. RJay (net 1.0) and Roger Smith (net 1.0) share IAH.

NYC _ at +1.6, hudsonvalley21 takes a win and StormchaserChuck a loss.

Persistence does not participate but would have won ATL and PHX by a small margin. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

=== ::: [] <<<<<<< Annual Scoring for 2025 >>>>>>> [] ::: ===

... April scoring to be adjusted (ATL, IAH, DEN, PHX not final yet)

 

FORECASTER _________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IA_ cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__ west __TOTALS

___ Consensus _______ 239 _286 _272 __797__280 _302 _240_822 _1619 _ 211 _234 _280__725 ___2344

so_whats_happening __269 _306 _236 __ 811 __272 _308 _241 __821 _ 1632 __200 _186 _300__ 686 ___2318

hudsonvalley21 _______ 223 _288 _300 __ 811 __226 _302 _251 __779 __1590 __238 _216 _270__ 724 ___2314

RJay __________________ 249 _340 _316 __905 __ 306 _308 _ 231 __ 845 _1750 __ 159 _154 _204__ 517 ___2267

Tom ___________________241 _280 _276 __ 797 __ 288 _232 _258 __778 _ 1575 __266 _222 _218__ 706 ___2281

wxallannj ______________217 _258 _264 __ 739 __308 _228 _222 __758 _1497 __ 236 _240 _259__ 735 ___2232

BKViking ______________ 181 _258 _230 __ 669 __292 _292 _235 __819 1488 __257 _206 _274__ 737 ___2225

Scotty Lightning _______264 _270 _216 __ 750 __213 _204 _ 230 __ 647 _ 1397 __171 _258 _270__ 699 ___2096

StormchaserChuck ___ 241 _256 _236 __ 733 __200 _292 _ 185 __ 677 _ 1410 __225 _230 _223__678___2088

DonSutherland1 _______ 171 _234 _236 __ 641 __240 _264 _208 __ 712 _ 1353 __ 217 _208 _296__ 721 ___2074

wxdude64 _____________184 _226 _212 __ 622 __ 224_ 256 _206 __ 686 _ 1308 __231 _242 _260__733___2041

Roger Smith ___________204 _248 _228 __680 __ 248 _244 _222 __714 _ 1394 __ 110 _190 _ 271__ 571 ____1965

RodneyS ______________ 212 _218 _234 __ 664 __ 172 _204 _194 __ 570 _ 1234 __149 _226 _338__ 713 ___ 1947

 

___ Normal _____________144 _220 _232 __ 596 __ 194 _084 _095 ___373 __ 969 __194 _220 _270__ 684 ___1653

maxim (2/4) ___________ 180 _ 152 _164 __ 496 ___ 96_ 120 _ 082 __ 298 __ 794 __ 92 _ 90 _ 135__ 317 ____ 1111 

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- prorated total ... 2222

Persistence ______________90 _186 _250 __ 526 ___112 _182 _144 __ 438 _ 964 __ 58 _ 88 _ 210 __ 356 ____1320

____________________________

 

_____

 

__ Best scores __

 

^ incl tied for best score 

* incl 3 tied for best score

________________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTALS

 

___ Consensus ________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0  __ 0 __ 1  ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

so_whats_happening ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1^ __ 1^ __ 1 ___ 2 _____ 0

hudsonvalley21 _________ 0 __ 1* __ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1* ___0 __ 0 ___ 1^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

RJay ____________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2*__ 0 __ 1 *___ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

Tom _____________________ 0 __ 1*__ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 1 ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Mar

wxallannj _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

BKViking ________________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 2 __ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 

Scotty Lightning ________2^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1 ____0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0

StormchaserChuck ______1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 2*__ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*__0 ___ 1 ____ 0 _Apr

Don Sutherland 1 ________0 __ 1^__ 1^____ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1^__ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

wxdude64 ______________ 0 __ 0 __ 1^___ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 1 _ Jan

Roger Smit_____________ 1^ __ 2^__ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___1 __ 2**__0 __ 1 ___ 0 __ 1*__ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 _ Feb

RodneyS ________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1* __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 2 ____ 1 _____0

___ Normal _______________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0

maxim ___________________ 1 __ 0 __ 1^___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 1 _____ 0

==============================

Extreme forecasts 

So far, 22 of 36 ... 14 for warmest and 8 for coldest ... Jan 1-4, Feb 1-4, Mar 5-0, Apr 7-0

 

Forecaster _______________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr __ Total ___ adj for ties (*2 tied, ^3 tied)

Roger Smith ______________ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1 _ 2**0 _ 5-2 ___ 4.0 - 2.0

Stormchaser Chuck _______0-0 _0-0 _0-1 _ 5*-2 __ 5-3 ___ 4.5 - 3.0

Scotty Lightning __________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 __ 3-0 ___3.0 - 0.0

maxim _____________________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 __ 3-0 ___2.33-0.0

Rodney S _________________ 2-1 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 3-1 ____2.5 - 1.0

hudsonvalley21 ___________ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 __ 3-0 ____2.5 - 0.0

so_whats_happening _____ 1*-0 _1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 ____1.0 - 0.0

BKViking __________________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0

Tom _______________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0

Don Sutherland ___________ 1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____0.33-0.0

wxdude64 _________________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____0.33-0.0

Normal ____________________ 1-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-1 ____ 1.0 - 1.0

RJay _______________________ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _2**-0 _2-0 ___ 1.0-0.0

=========================================================

 
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...