2025 forecast contests -- enter for June 2025 contest, adding seasonal max (deadline 06z June 1st)

[Roger Smith]

Table of Forecasts for May 2025

 

FORECASTER _____________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH __DEN _PHX _SEA

 

wxallannj__________________________+2.5 _+2.5 _+2.5 __ +3.5 _+1.3 _+1.2 __+1.0 _+0.5 _+0.3

BKViking ___________(-2%)_________+2.3 _+2.3 _+2.1 __ +1.4 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+2.0 _+1.3 _+1.3

RJay ________________(-2%)________ +2.0 _+2.5 _+2.5 __+2.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+1.5 __ 0.0 _+1.5

wxdude64 ________________________ +1.8 _+1.9 _+1.7 __ +2.1 _+1.4 _ +1.1 __ +1.5 _+0.5 _+0.4

DonSutherland1 ___________________ +1.7 _+1.7 _+1.7 __+1.3 _+0.8 _+0.9 __+0.2 _-0.8 _+0.2

Scotty Lightning __________________ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 __+1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5

___ Consensus _________________+1.5 _+1.6_+1.7 __+1.4 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+1.3 _+0.5 _+0.5

StormchaserChuck _______________ +1.4 _+1.6 _+1.8 __ +2.9 _+0.4 _-0.6 __+1.1 _ +0.1 _+1.0

so_whats_happening ______________+1.4 _ +1.6 _ +1.7 __+1.9 _+0.5 _-0.2 __+1.5 _+0.3 _+0.5

Roger Smith _______________________ +1.3 _+1.4 _+1.5 __+1.2 _+0.7 _+0.5 __+2.7 _+1.0 _+1.5

RodneyS __________________________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+0.4 __ -1.8 _ +0.2 _+0.7 __+1.0 _-0.2 _-0.6

hudsonvalley21 ____________________+0.8 _+0.6 _+0.3 __ +1.4 _+1.7 _+1.2 __+1.8 _+2.1 _-0.2

Tom _______________________________ +0.6 _+0.8 _+0.8 __+1.1 _+0.4 _+0.9 __+0.8 _+0.5 _+0.7

___ Normal _________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 _ 0.0

______

Persistence (Apr 2025) _____________+3.5 _+1.6 _+2.2 __+1.1 _+4.5 _+4.6 __+1.7 _+1.4 _+0.8

==================

Normal is lower than all forecasts at DCA, NYC, BOS, ATL, DEN

[Roger Smith]

<<< SNOWFALL CONTEST FINAL REPORT ?? >>>

(probably our final update, will keep an eye on DEN just in case)

 

Table of forecasts for snowfall winter 2024-2025

... listed in order of total snowfall predicted ...

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BUF ___ DEN _SEA _BTV ___ TOTAL

Roger Smith ________________13.5_ 32.0_ 47.0 ___ 50.6_ 52.2_ 130.0 ___ 89.0_ 1.5_109.3 ___ 525.1

wxdude64 _________________ 18.8_ 36.2_ 44.3 ___ 37.8_ 41.3_ 122.9 ___ 71.2_ 7.4 _102.7 ___ 482.6

Tom ________________________26.2_ 38.1_ 42.4 ___ 37.6_ 42.3_ 102.6 ___ 57.7_ 6.4__83.4 ___ 436.7

___ Normal 1991-2020 _____13.7_ 29.8_ 49.2 ___ 38.4 _45.0__95.4 ___49.0_ 6.3_87.5 ___ 414.3

BKViking ___________________12.0_ 27.0_ 44.0 ___ 30.0_ 28.0 __ 98.0 ___ 55.0_14.0_ 100.0___ 408.0

RodneyS ____________________5.8_ 22.0_ 38.5 ___ 42.5_ 45.0__ 99.0 ___ 58.0_ 9.5__85.0 ___ 405.3

___ Consensus ____________14.8_ 23.6_ 34.8 __ 35.0_ 36.7 _ 104.2 __57.4 _ 5.8 _91.7 ___ 404.0

RJay _______________________ 4.0_ 12.0 _ 50.0 ___ 29.0_ 35.0_ 100.0 ___ 60.0_ 6.0_ 100.0 ___ 396.0

Scotty Lightning ___________20.0_ 25.0_ 30.0___ 35.0_ 30.0_ 106.0 ___ 45.0 _ 3.0_ 100.0 ___ 394.0

wxallannj __________________25.0_ 30.0_ 34.0 ___32.0_ 35.0__ 94.0 ___ 40.0_ 4.0__ 88.0 ___ 382.0

Don Sutherland1 ___________ 8.0_ 16.5_ 35.0 ___ 40.0_ 45.0__ 95.0 ___ 55.0_ 8.0__ 75.0 ___ 377.5

hudsonvalley21 ____________17.0_ 21.0_ 28.0 ___ 26.0_ 24.0_ 102.0 ___ 51.0 _ 4.0__ 84.0 ___ 357.0

so_whats_happening ______13.0_ 19.0_ 35.0 ___ 29.0_ 31.0__ 98.0 ___ 39.0 _ 3.0__ 81.0 ___ 348.0

 

___________________________

Persistence (2023-2024) ___ 8.0__ 7.5__ 9.8 ___ 22.2_ 23.5__ 71.3 ___ 44.6_ 0.3__ 60.8 ___ 248.0

____________________

To date _____ (May 15) _______ 14.9__12.9 _28.1 ___17.6 _28.7__ 77.2 ___ 47.7 __2.3 __75.7 ____305.1

(contest incl all seasonal snow)

 

__Scoring update (in order)__

_ underlined errors are forecasts lower than actual ... rest are forecasts higher than actual to date _

 

Rank _FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS __ ORD_DTW_BUF ___ DEN_SEA_BTV ___ TOTAL

 

_01__hudsonvalley21 ___________ 2.1 _ 8.1 __ 0.1 _____ 8.4 __ 4.7 __ 24.8 ____ 3.3 _ 1.7 __ 8.3 ___ 61.5

_02 __so_whats_happening ______ 1.9 _ 6.1 __ 6.9 ____ 11.4 __ 2.3 __20.8 ____8.7 _ 0.7 __ 5.3 ___ 64.1

(02.1)_Persistence (2023-2024)__6.9__ 5.4__18.3 ___ 4.6 __ 5.2 ____5.9 ____ 3.1 _2.0 _ 14.9 ___ 66.3

_03 __Don Sutherland1 ___________ 6.9 _ 3.6 __6.9 ___ 22.4 _ 16.3 __ 17.8 ____7.3 _ 5.7 __ 0.7 ___ 87.6

 

_04 __wxallannj __________________ 10.1_ 17.1 __ 5.9 ___ 14.4 __ 6.3 __ 16.8 ____7.7 _ 1.7 __ 12.3 ___ 92.3

_05 __Scotty Lightning ___________ 5.1 _ 12.1 __ 1.9 ___ 17.4 __ 1.3 __ 28.8 ____ 2.7 _0.7 _ 24.3 ___ 94.3

(5.3)___ Consensus ____________ 0.1 _ 10.7 _ 6.7 ___ 17.4 __8.0 __27.0 ____ 9.7 _ 3.5 _16.0 __ 99.1

_06 __BKViking ___________________ 2.9_ 14.1 _ 15.9 ___ 12.4 __ 0.7 __ 20.8 ___ 7.3 _11.7 __24.3 ___ 110.1

 

(6.2)___ Normal 1991-2020 ____ 1.2 _ 16.9_ 21.1 ___ 20.8 _ 16.3 __16.5 ___ 3.0_ 4.0__11.8 ___ 111.6

_07 __RJay _______________________10.9 _ 0.9 _21.9 ___ 11.4 __ 6.3 __ 22.8 ___ 12.3_ 3.7 _ 24.3 ___ 114.5

_08 __RodneyS ____________________9.1 _ 9.1 _ 10.4 ___ 24.9 _ 16.3 __ 21.8 ____8.6 _ 7.2 __ 8.9 ___ 118.4

_09 __Tom ________________________11.3_ 25.2_ 14.3 ___ 20.0 _ 13.6 _ 25.4 ___ 10.0 _ 4.1 __ 7.7 ___ 131.6

_10 __wxdude64 _________________ 3.9_ 23.3_ 16.2 ___ 20.2 _ 12.6 _ 45.7 ___23.5 _ 5.1 _27.0 ___ 177.5

_11 __Roger Smith ________________ 1.4_ 19.1 _ 18.9 ___ 33.0 _ 23.5 _ 51.1 ___ 43.0_ 0.8_ 33.6 ___ 224.4

(will post final comments at end of May)

 

[Roger Smith]

Tracking anomalies and projections ...

_____________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

___ anom 1-15 ______ +3.5 _ +2.8 _ +3.0 ___+1.0 _ +0.1 _ +1.5 __ +3.0 _ +1.2 _ -0.5

___ p anom 1-31 ____ +2.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +2.5 __ +3.0 _ +1.5 __ 0.0

___ anom 1-31 ______ -0.2 _ -0.9 _ +0.8 ___ -2.6 _ +0.3 _ +3.2 __ +0.3 _ +1.4 _ -0.5

[Roger Smith]

 

Final scoring for May 2025

_ late penalties are incorporated into scoring, mostly 1 point deductions (for 2% to remove 2 points, score must be 76+)

 

FORECASTER __________________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA_west __ TOTAL

 

RodneyS ________________________76 _ 62 _ 92 _ 230 _ 84 _ 98 _ 50 _ 232 _ 462 _ 86 _ 68 _ 98 __252 ____714

___ Normal______________________ 96 _ 82 _ 84 _ 262 _ 48 _ 96 _ 36 _ 180 _ 442 _ 94 _ 72 _ 90 __ 256 ___ 698

Tom _____________________________84 _ 66 _100_ 250 _ 26 _ 98 _ 54 _ 178 _ 428 _ 90 _ 82 _ 76 __ 248 ___ 676

Scotty Lightning ________________ 66 _ 62 _ 96 _ 224 _ 28 _ 66 _ 76 _ 170 _ 394 _ 86 _ 98 _ 80 __ 264 ___ 658

hudsonvalley21 __________________80 _ 70 _ 90 _ 240 _ 20 _ 72 _ 60 _ 152 _ 392 _ 70 _ 86 _ 94 __ 250 ___ 642

___ Consensus _______________66 _ 50 _ 82 _ 198 _ 20 _ 86 _ 56 _162 _ 360 _ 80 _ 82 _80 __242 __ 602

DonSutherland1 _________________ 62 _ 48 _ 82 _ 192 _ 22 _ 90 _ 54 _ 166 _ 358 _ 98 _ 56 _ 86 __ 240 ___ 598

Roger Smith ____________________ 70 _ 54 _ 86 _ 210 _ 24 _ 92 _ 46 _ 162 _ 372 _ 52 _ 92 _ 60 __ 204 ____ 576

so_whats_happening ____________68 _ 50 _ 82 _ 200 _ 10 _ 96 _ 32 _ 138 _ 338 _ 76 _ 78 _ 80 __ 234 ___ 572

wxdude64 ______________________ 60 _ 44 _ 82 _ 186 _ 06 _ 78 _ 58 _ 142 _ 328 _ 76 _ 82 _ 82 __ 240 ___ 568

StormchaserChuck _____________ 68 _ 50 _ 80 _ 198 _ 00 _ 98 _ 24 _ 122 _ 320 _ 84 _ 74 _ 70 __ 228 ____ 548

BKViking ___________(-2%)_______49 _ 35 _ 73 _ 157 _ 20 _ 84 _ 55 _ 159 __ 316 _ 65 _ 96 _ 63 __ 224 ___ 540

wxallannj________________________ 46 _ 32 _ 66 _ 144 _ 00 _ 80 _ 60 _ 140 _ 284 _ 86 _ 82 _ 84 __ 252 ___ 536

RJay ________________(-2%)______ 55 _ 31 _ 65 __ 151 _ 08 _ 84 _ 55 _ 147 __ 298 _ 74 _ 71 _ 59 __ 204 ___ 502

______

Persistence (Apr 2025) __________26 _ 50 _ 72 _ 148 _ 26 _ 16 _ 72 _ 114 _ 262 _ 72 _100 _ 74 __ 246 ___ 508

==============================

Extreme forecasts

DCA, NYC, ORD, ATL, DEN, SEA are all wins for coldest forecasts. RodneyS has three of them, and Tom, hudsonvalley21 and DonSutherland have one each. In addition, Normal shares a win for DCA and NYC. ... Also Tom shares the ATL win as lowest and second lowest forecasts tied there ... BOS did not quite qualify, as third coldest forecast there had high score. 

IAH was a win for warmest forecast (Scotty Lightning). PHX was a win-loss situation where highest forecast (hudsonvalley21) took a loss and second highest forecast (Scotty Lightning) won. 

==================================

Annual update will appear in a post to be edited below (dated Wed May 28th) _ this should happen later today (June 1st).

 

 

[so_whats_happening]

On 5/15/2025 at 8:14 PM, Roger Smith said:

<<< SNOWFALL CONTEST FINAL REPORT ?? >>>

(probably our final update, will keep an eye on DEN just in case)

 

Table of forecasts for snowfall winter 2024-2025

... listed in order of total snowfall predicted ...

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BUF ___ DEN _SEA _BTV ___ TOTAL

Roger Smith ________________13.5_ 32.0_ 47.0 ___ 50.6_ 52.2_ 130.0 ___ 89.0_ 1.5_109.3 ___ 525.1

wxdude64 _________________ 18.8_ 36.2_ 44.3 ___ 37.8_ 41.3_ 122.9 ___ 71.2_ 7.4 _102.7 ___ 482.6

Tom ________________________26.2_ 38.1_ 42.4 ___ 37.6_ 42.3_ 102.6 ___ 57.7_ 6.4__83.4 ___ 436.7

___ Normal 1991-2020 _____13.7_ 29.8_ 49.2 ___ 38.4 _45.0__95.4 ___49.0_ 6.3_87.5 ___ 414.3

BKViking ___________________12.0_ 27.0_ 44.0 ___ 30.0_ 28.0 __ 98.0 ___ 55.0_14.0_ 100.0___ 408.0

RodneyS ____________________5.8_ 22.0_ 38.5 ___ 42.5_ 45.0__ 99.0 ___ 58.0_ 9.5__85.0 ___ 405.3

___ Consensus ____________14.8_ 23.6_ 34.8 __ 35.0_ 36.7 _ 104.2 __57.4 _ 5.8 _91.7 ___ 404.0

RJay _______________________ 4.0_ 12.0 _ 50.0 ___ 29.0_ 35.0_ 100.0 ___ 60.0_ 6.0_ 100.0 ___ 396.0

Scotty Lightning ___________20.0_ 25.0_ 30.0___ 35.0_ 30.0_ 106.0 ___ 45.0 _ 3.0_ 100.0 ___ 394.0

wxallannj __________________25.0_ 30.0_ 34.0 ___32.0_ 35.0__ 94.0 ___ 40.0_ 4.0__ 88.0 ___ 382.0

Don Sutherland1 ___________ 8.0_ 16.5_ 35.0 ___ 40.0_ 45.0__ 95.0 ___ 55.0_ 8.0__ 75.0 ___ 377.5

hudsonvalley21 ____________17.0_ 21.0_ 28.0 ___ 26.0_ 24.0_ 102.0 ___ 51.0 _ 4.0__ 84.0 ___ 357.0

so_whats_happening ______13.0_ 19.0_ 35.0 ___ 29.0_ 31.0__ 98.0 ___ 39.0 _ 3.0__ 81.0 ___ 348.0

 

___________________________

Persistence (2023-2024) ___ 8.0__ 7.5__ 9.8 ___ 22.2_ 23.5__ 71.3 ___ 44.6_ 0.3__ 60.8 ___ 248.0

____________________

To date _____ (May 15) _______ 14.9__12.9 _28.1 ___17.6 _28.7__ 77.2 ___ 47.7 __2.3 __75.7 ____305.1

(contest incl all seasonal snow)

 

__Scoring update (in order)__

_ underlined errors are forecasts lower than actual ... rest are forecasts higher than actual to date _

 

Rank _FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS __ ORD_DTW_BUF ___ DEN_SEA_BTV ___ TOTAL

 

_01__hudsonvalley21 ___________ 2.1 _ 8.1 __ 0.1 _____ 8.4 __ 4.7 __ 24.8 ____ 3.3 _ 1.7 __ 8.3 ___ 61.5

_02 __so_whats_happening ______ 1.9 _ 6.1 __ 6.9 ____ 11.4 __ 2.3 __20.8 ____8.7 _ 0.7 __ 5.3 ___ 64.1

(02.1)_Persistence (2023-2024)__6.9__ 5.4__18.3 ___ 4.6 __ 5.2 ____5.9 ____ 3.1 _2.0 _ 14.9 ___ 66.3

_03 __Don Sutherland1 ___________ 6.9 _ 3.6 __6.9 ___ 22.4 _ 16.3 __ 17.8 ____7.3 _ 5.7 __ 0.7 ___ 87.6

 

_04 __wxallannj __________________ 10.1_ 17.1 __ 5.9 ___ 14.4 __ 6.3 __ 16.8 ____7.7 _ 1.7 __ 12.3 ___ 92.3

_05 __Scotty Lightning ___________ 5.1 _ 12.1 __ 1.9 ___ 17.4 __ 1.3 __ 28.8 ____ 2.7 _0.7 _ 24.3 ___ 94.3

(5.3)___ Consensus ____________ 0.1 _ 10.7 _ 6.7 ___ 17.4 __8.0 __27.0 ____ 9.7 _ 3.5 _16.0 __ 99.1

_06 __BKViking ___________________ 2.9_ 14.1 _ 15.9 ___ 12.4 __ 0.7 __ 20.8 ___ 7.3 _11.7 __24.3 ___ 110.1

 

(6.2)___ Normal 1991-2020 ____ 1.2 _ 16.9_ 21.1 ___ 20.8 _ 16.3 __16.5 ___ 3.0_ 4.0__11.8 ___ 111.6

_07 __RJay _______________________10.9 _ 0.9 _21.9 ___ 11.4 __ 6.3 __ 22.8 ___ 12.3_ 3.7 _ 24.3 ___ 114.5

_08 __RodneyS ____________________9.1 _ 9.1 _ 10.4 ___ 24.9 _ 16.3 __ 21.8 ____8.6 _ 7.2 __ 8.9 ___ 118.4

_09 __Tom ________________________11.3_ 25.2_ 14.3 ___ 20.0 _ 13.6 _ 25.4 ___ 10.0 _ 4.1 __ 7.7 ___ 131.6

_10 __wxdude64 _________________ 3.9_ 23.3_ 16.2 ___ 20.2 _ 12.6 _ 45.7 ___23.5 _ 5.1 _27.0 ___ 177.5

_11 __Roger Smith ________________ 1.4_ 19.1 _ 18.9 ___ 33.0 _ 23.5 _ 51.1 ___ 43.0_ 0.8_ 33.6 ___ 224.4

(will post final comments at end of May)

 

Oh man that was close. Congrats @hudsonvalley21

As always thanks Roger!

[hudsonvalley21]

On 5/20/2025 at 7:34 AM, so_whats_happening said:

Oh man that was close. Congrats @hudsonvalley21

As always thanks Roger!

Thanks, yes it was real close. Also, thanks Rodger for your time and efforts 

[Roger Smith]

May scoring post already exists (final edit June 1st) before snowfall contest posts above ...

Here's the annual scoring update ... this contest remains quite close top to bottom. 

=== ::: [] <<<<<<< Annual Scoring for Jan-May 2025 >>>>>>> [] ::: ===

 

FORECASTER _________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH _ cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__ west __TOTALS

 

Tom ___________________325 _346 _376 __1047 __314 _328 _302 __944 _1991 __352 _318 _294__964 ___2955

hudsonvalley21 _______ 303 _358 _390 __1051 __246 _372 _301 __919__1970 __304 _308 _364__976 ___2946

___ Consensus _______ 305 _336 _354__995__300 _386 _286_972 _1967 _ 287 _326 _360__973___2940

so_whats_happening __337 _356 _318 __1011 __282 _402 _263 __947 _ 1958 __274 _258 _380__ 910 ___ 2868

RJay __________________ 304 _371 _ 381__1056 __314 _390 _276 __980 _ 2036__237 _243 _263__743 ___2779

BKViking ______________ 230 _293 _303 __826 __312 _374 _280 __966 _ 1792 __ 318 _320 _337__ 975 ___2767

Scotty Lightning _______330 _332 _312 __ 974 __241 _268 _ 296 __805 _ 1779 __253 _374 _350__977 ___2756

wxallannj ______________263 _290 _330 __ 883 __308 _306 _272 __886 _1769 __ 318 _316 _343__ 977 ___2746

DonSutherland1 _______233 _282 _318 __ 833 __262 _352 _252 __866 _1699 __ 311 _286 _382__ 979 ___2678

RodneyS ______________ 288 _280 _326 __ 894 __256 _300 _234 __790 _ 1684 __231 _316 _436__983___2667

StormchaserChuck ___ 309 _306 _316 __ 931 __200 _388 _ 199 __787 _ 1718 __ 313 _282 _293__888 ___2606

wxdude64 _____________244 _270 _294 __ 808 __230_ 332 _254 __816 _ 1624 __311 _326 _342__979 ___2603

Roger Smith ___________274 _302 _314 __ 890 __ 272 _334 _258 __864 _ 1754 __ 158 _260 _331__ 749 ___2503

___ Normal _____________240 _302 _316 __ 858 __242 _ 178 _ 121 ___541 __1399 __ 284 _314 _360__958 ___2357

maxim (2/5) ___________ 180 _ 152 _164 __ 496 ___ 96_ 120 _ 082 __ 298 __ 794 __ 92 _ 90 _ 135__ 317 ____ 1111 

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- prorated total ... 2777

Persistence _____________116 _236 _322 __ 674 ___138 _196 _226 __ 560 _1234 __134 _198 _284 __ 616 ____1850

____________________________

 

_____

 

__ Best scores __

 

^ incl tied for best score 

* incl 3 tied for best score

________________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTALS

Tom ____________________ 1 __ 1* __ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1* __1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____1 __ Mar

hudsonvalley21 ________ 0 __ 2* __ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1* ___0 __ 0 ___ 1^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____0

___ Consensus _______ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0  __ 0 __ 1  ___0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___0 ____0

so_whats_happening __ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1^ __ 1^ __ 1 ___ 2 _____0

RJay ___________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2*__ 0 __ 1 *___ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1*__ 0 ___0 ____ 0

BKViking _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 2 __ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1*__ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 

Scotty Lightning _______ 2^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 2 ____0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 3*___1 ___ 1 ____ 0

wxallannj _______________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

Don Sutherland 1 _______0 __ 1^__ 1^____ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 1^__ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

RodneyS _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ 1* __ 1* __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 3 ____ 1 _____1 _ May

StormchaserChuck _____1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 2*__ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 __0 ___ 1 ____ 0 _Apr

wxdude64 ______________0 __ 0 __ 1^___ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 1 _ Jan

Roger Smith ____________ 1^ __ 2^__ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___1 __ 2**__0 __ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 _ Feb

___ Normal ______________ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0

maxim __________________ 1 __ 0 __ 1^___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 1 _____ 0

==============================

odd distribution of contest wins, 4/5 go to last four regular entrants in total scoring. (one to top scorer Tom)

 

Extreme forecasts 

So far, 29 of 45 ... 15 for warmest and 14 for coldest ... Jan 1-4, Feb 1-4, Mar 5-0, Apr 6-0, May 2-6

 

Forecaster _______________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _Apr _May __ Total___adj for ties (*2 tied, ^3 tied)

 

Rodney S _________________ 2-1 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _3*0 __6-1 ____5.0 - 1.0

Scotty Lightning __________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 __ 5-0 ___ 5.0 - 0.0

hudsonvalley21 ___________ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 1-1 __ 4-1 ___ 3.5 - 0.0

Roger Smith ______________ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1 _ 1*0 _ 0-0 __ 4-2 ___ 3.5 - 2.0

Stormchaser Chuck _______0-0 _0-0 _0-1 _ 4*-2 _0-0 __ 4-3 ___ 3.5 - 3.0

___ Normal ________________ 1-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 __ 3-1 ____ 3.0 - 1.0

maxim _____________________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 3-0 ___ 2.33-0.0

Tom _______________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*0 __3-0 ___ 2.5 - 0.0

so_whats_happening _____ 1*-0 _1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __ 2-0 ____1.0 - 0.0

Don Sutherland ___________ 1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 __ 2-0 ____1.33-0.0

BKViking __________________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____ 1.0 - 0.0

wxdude64 _________________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____0.33-0.0

RJay _______________________ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _2**-0_0-0 __ 2-0 ___ 1.0-0.0

=========================================================

[Scotty Lightning]

June

 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.0      1.0       0.5        0.5     1.0      1.5       0.5      2.0     0.5

 

(post edited at 10:33am EDT 6/1 for the seasonal max; NOTHING changed above)

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

103      100      98          101     103    106        100      121      92

[wxallannj]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

2.2      2.3     2.6         0.5       2.1      1.3         0.7      1.8      0.7 

 

June

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.6      2.2      2.3         2.6      0.2     0.8       0.4      1.3       0.5

[bkviking]

DCA:  +2.1

NYC:  +2.2

BOS:  +2.1

ORD:  +1.9

ATL:  +0.3

IAH:  +0.5

DEN:  +1.8

PHX:  +1.0

SEA:  +1.9

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA:  +2.4    101

NYC:  +2.4      98

BOS:  +2.0       97

ORD:  +1.4      100

ATL:  +1.2        101

IAH:  +1.0        101

DEN:  +0.7       100

PHX:  +2.5       123

SEA:  +0.2.        97

[Tom]

DCA:  +1.8       101

NYC:  +1.6        99

BOS:  +1.7         98

ORD:  +1.1        102

ATL:  +1.7        103

IAH:  +0.9       105

DEN:  +0.5      101

PHX:  +2.1       118

SEA:  +0.8       96

[Stormchaserchuck1]

DCA:  +1.6

NYC:  +1.8

BOS:  +2.0

ORD:  +0.8

ATL:  +0.6

IAH:  +0.7

DEN:  +2.5

PHX:  +2.7

SEA:  +1.0

[wxdude64]

DCA:  +0.8

NYC:  +1.2

BOS:  +1.4

ORD:  +0.4

ATL:  +0.8

IAH:  + 0.5

DEN:  -0.4

PHX:  +0.4

SEA:  +0.9

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-0.5     1.1        1.0         -1.8    -0.7     1.2        0.1       0.1       1.1

[Rjay]

DCA: +2.5

 

NYC: +2.5

 

BOS: +2.5

 

ORD: +2.5

 

ATL: +1.5

 

IAH: +2.0

 

DEN: +1.0

 

PHX: +1.0

 

SEA: +1.0

[so_whats_happening]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

+1.7    +1.6     +2.1       +1.4     +1.1    +1        +2.1    +1.3    +2.1

[Roger Smith]

+3.0 for all exc west (3 stn) +1.5

102 _ 100 _ 100 __ 101 _ 102 _ 107 __ 107 _ 120 _ 99

(add your seasonal max forecasts, by 6-10 is fine)

[wxdude64]

Seasonal max

DCA: 100

NYC:  99

BOS:  98

ORD:  99

ATL: 101

IAH: 106

DEN: 104

PHX: 118

SEA:  96

[Roger Smith]

__ Table of forecasts for June 2025 __

a separate table will be created for seasonal max ... enter by June 10th 

 

FORECASTER _________________ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

Roger Smith __________________ +3.0 _+3.0 _+3.0 ___ +3.0 _+3.0 _+3.0 ___+1.5 _+1.5 _+1.5

RJay __________________________ +2.5 _+2.5 _+2.5 ___ +2.5 _+1.5 _ +2.0 ___+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0

hudsonvalley21 _______________ +2.4 _+2.4 _+2.0 ___ +1.4 _+1.2 _ +1.0 ___+0.7 _+2.5 _+0.2

wxallannj _____________________+2.2 _+2.3 _+2.6 ___ +0.5 _ +2.1 _ +1.3 ___+0.7 _+1.8 _+0.7

BKViking _____________________ +2.1 _ +2.2 _ +2.1 ___ +1.9 _ +0.3 _+0.5 ___+1.8 _ +1.0 _+1.9

Tom __________________________ +1.8 _ +1.6 _ +1.7 ____ +1.1 __+1.7 __+0.9___+0.5 _+2.1 _+0.8

___ Consensus ________________+1.8 _ +2.0 _ +2.1 ___ +1.3 _ +1.1 __ +1.0 ___+0.7 _+1.4 _+1.0

so_whats_happening _________ +1.7 _ +1.6 _ +2.1  ___ +1.4 __+1.1 _ +1.0 ___ +2.1 _+1.3 _+2.1

DonSutherland1 _______________+1.6 _+2.2 _+2.3 ___ +2.6 _+0.2 _+0.8 ___+0.4 _+1.3 _+0.5

Stormchaserchuck1 __________ +1.6 _ +1.8 _ +2.0 ___ +0.8 _+0.6 _+0.7 ___+2.5_+2.7 _+1.0

Scotty Lightning _____________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ____+0.5 _+1.0 _ +1.5 ___ +0.5 _+2.0_ +0.5

wxdude64 ____________________+0.8 _ +1.2 _ +1.4 ___ +0.4 _+0.8 _+0.5___-0.4 _+0.4 _+0.9

___ Normal ____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 _ 0.0 _ 0.0 

RodneyS ______________________ -0.5 _ +1.1 _ +1.0 ____ -1.8 _ -0.7 _ +1.2 ___ +0.1 _+0.1 _ +1.1

_________________

Persistence (May 2025) _______-0.2 _-0.9 _+0.8 ___ -2.6 _ +0.3 _ +3.2 __ +0.3 _+1.4 _-0.5

========================================

Highest and lowest forecasts are color coded. Normal has low forecast for NYC, BOS, IAH, PHX and SEA.

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Just another update on contest ... my first stab at May scoring (mid-May) was horrendously bad so if you looked in then to May 31st, and saw those numbers and figured, well, the results will be sort of like that, nope, they were much different (it was much colder in the east and ORD, DEN than projected by me at the time) ... 

... those scores are back before some chat about snowfall contest, and the snowfall contest results are back further also. I think DEN is clear of snow risks by now although it could always happen there in June. ... Annual updates are also posted just before this month's forecast posts begin. I will be adding an update on four seasons scoring later (will edit into annual scoring post).

I will wait and see who has entered seasonal max by June 7th (edit your posts or re-post as you wish, I have already collected June forecasts). Then I will send messages to any non-entrants who may not be aware there is a call for forecasts. 

Final note, I have a 2025 N Atlantic hurricane season forecast contest running in the tropical section, some of you have entered already, deadline is June 7th (06z).